7th-best Illinois tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-1.0 pts
#117 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+6.9 pts
#74 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Lovie Smith (2016–2020).
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
74
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
126
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-52
#99 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 245 lbs
across 58 of 74 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+10.1 lbs
#12 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#103 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: IL (7), FL (5), TX (4), WA (4), GA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.9
position-weighted
Net
+1.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Luke Altmyer (QB) from Ole Miss
Biggest loss: Matt Robinson (QB) to Fresno State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tony Petersen → Barry Lunney Jr. · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 29.8% → 37.7% (+7.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 55% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Ryan Walters → Aaron Henry / co-Terrance Jamison · 2023the defense collapsed across the change
2-season window either side.
DC: Aaron Henry / co-Terrance Jamison → Bobby Hauck · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
210 lbs
6′3″ avg · #472 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
218 lbs
6′0″ avg · #72 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′1″ avg · #235 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
256 lbs
6′5″ avg · #62 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
317 lbs
6′5″ avg · #104 of 779 · more than most
D-line
300 lbs
6′3″ avg · #88 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
241 lbs
6′3″ avg · #18 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #104 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys D-line via the portal
58%
#60 of 239 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
82%
#184 of 224 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
71%
#190 of 236 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to Mississippi State 10–19 ReliaQuest Bowl2024: Beat South Carolina 21–17 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl2025: Beat Tennessee 30–28 Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
17 NFL Draft picks: Kendrick Green (2021), Nate Hobbs (2021), Kerby Joseph (2022), Vederian Lowe (2022), Doug Kramer (2022), Devon Witherspoon (2023), Jartavius Martin (2023), Sydney Brown (2023) + 9 more
3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Devon Witherspoon (2022), Alex Palczewski (2022), Johnny Newton (2023)