Bret Bielema

Head coach · Illinois
6th season · since 2021 · Arkansas before

At Illinois42-29since 2021 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool2% · 75th of 132 jobsLast gameW 20-17at Maryland · Oct 31Nextvs NebraskaFri Nov 6 · 8 pm ET · FOX
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, won 3 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianWisconsinArkansasIllinoisMinnesotaMinnesotaLSULSUNorthwesternNorthwesternBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelWisconsin when he took over: 48.9 (Power Program III), its final 2005 readingWisconsin, 2006: 12-1, Power Program IIWisconsin, 2006: 12-1, Power Program II2006Wisconsin, 2007: 9-4, Power Program IIWisconsin, 2008: 7-6, Power Program IIWisconsin, 2009: 10-3, Power Program IIWisconsin, 2010: 11-2, Power Program IIWisconsin, 2011: 11-3, Power Program IWisconsin, 2012: 8-5, Power Program IWisconsin, 2012: 8-5, Power Program I2012+7.9Arkansas when he took over: 46.6 (Power Program III), its final 2012 readingArkansas, 2013: 3-9, Power Program IIIArkansas, 2013: 3-9, Power Program III2013Arkansas, 2014: 7-6, Power Program IIIArkansas, 2015: 8-5, Power Program IIIArkansas, 2016: 7-6, Power Program IIIArkansas, 2017: 4-8, Power Program IIIArkansas, 2017: 4-8, Power Program III2017-0.8Illinois when he took over: 20.9 (Regional Program II), its final 2020 readingIllinois, 2021: 5-7, Regional Program IIllinois, 2021: 5-7, Regional Program I2021Illinois, 2022: 8-5, National Program IIIIllinois, 2023: 5-7, National Program IIIIllinois, 2024: 10-3, National Program IIIllinois, 2025: 9-4, National Program IIIllinois, 2026: 5-3, National Program IIIllinois, 2026: 5-3, National Program II2026+12.5best: 2012gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 6-6

Wisconsin’06W’07L’08L’09W’10L’11LArkansas’14W’15W’16LIllinois’22L’24W’25W

Show all 12 games
Wisconsin2006Capital One BowlW 17-142007Outback BowlL 17-212008Champs Sports BowlL 13-422009Champs Sports BowlW 20-142010Rose BowlL 19-212011Rose BowlL 38-45Arkansas2014Texas BowlW 31-72015Liberty BowlW 45-232016Belk BowlL 24-35Illinois2022ReliaQuest BowlL 10-192024Citrus BowlW 21-172025Music City BowlW 30-28

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 20-17 at Maryland Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3 won 3 straight
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Nebraska Fri Nov 6
  • Stature47th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds <0.1% → 0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Friday: vs. Nebraska

Fri Nov 6, 8 pm ET FOX · Nebraska is 5-3 · Bielema vs. Matt Rhule: 1-1 · Illinois’s chance to win: 24% (the site’s model)

A few headlines named him in the last 7 days

78th of 138 FBS head coaches

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 42nd of 138 per play. Defense: 134th.

Offense, per play42ndRunning offense27thDefense, per play134thPass defense133rdWorstBest
Offense, per play42nd of 138Running offense27th of 138Defense, per play134th of 138Pass defense133rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Illinois. The other two rows are where Illinois stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Fri Nov 6vs. Nebraska (5-3)FOX24%
  2. Fri Nov 13at UCLA (8-0)FOX11%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Iowa (6-2)20%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Northwestern (6-2)11%

Percent: Illinois’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Illinois stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

40th46th52ndPreseason47thUAB W 42-23UAB W 42-23W 42-23UAB45thDuke L 27-31Duke L 27-31L 27-31Duke44thSouthern Illinois W 48-10Southern Illinois W 48-10W 48-10Southern Illi…44thOhio State L 19-42Ohio State L 19-42L 19-42Ohio State44thPurdue L 17-24Purdue L 17-24L 17-24Purdue46thMichigan State W 38-37Michigan State W 38-37W 38-37Michigan State46thOregon W 21-10Oregon W 21-10W 21-10Oregon49thMaryland W 20-17Maryland W 20-17W 20-17Maryland48th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 20-17 at Maryland8 headlines · 54th of 138Illinois HC Bret Bielema Gets Honest About Michael Clayton II's Play Roundtable
  2. Oct 19–25W 21-10 vs. Oregon5 headlines · 61st of 138Illinois Coach Bret Bielema Explains Why Beating Oregon Was Personal Sports Illustrated
  3. Oct 12–18No game2 headlines · 74th of 138Illinois Coach Bret Bielema Makes Statement on Defensive Play-Caller Job Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 38-37 at Michigan State4 headlines · 59th of 1383&Out: Illinois HC Bret Bielema defiant ahead of Michigan State game On3
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 17-24 vs. Purdue13 headlines · 35th of 138Bret Bielema has seen the positive effect of Bobby Hauck leaving Illinois in just one week Writing Illini
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 19-42 at Ohio State7 headlines · 52nd of 138What Illinois coach Bret Bielema said about Ohio State postgame Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Illinois’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 78th percentile defense, above the median offense at 69th.

Illinois, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —69th
efficiency — 69th percentile success rate, 2021–25
B+73rd
Standard-downs success
B-56th
Passing-downs success
B+71st
Trench push (line yards)
B-52nd
Red-zone scoring rate
B65th
Power-success (short yardage)
B62nd
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B+
of which —78th
78th percentile SP+ defense, 2021–25
B63rd
Front-7 havoc
B+76th
Secondary havoc
C-33rd
Stuff rate (run defense)
B-58th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool75th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All five of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2021202220232024202520262021, week 3 (4 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (5 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (6 games in): 1%, 116th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (7 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (9 games in): 1%, 111th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (10 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 86th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 96th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 3%, 79th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 79th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 105th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $49.5M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 6.0× his pay, a multiple among the largest in FBS — costly to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    19-7 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$49,491,667 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 6.0× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 7%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled89th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    Age 56 · in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $8.2 million in 2025, the 85th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 23% on the season before
  • ▲ Higher
    A Power Four program · 66th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.