Illinois at Maryland
Illinois (3‑3) at Maryland (2‑5) — no line yet, and the model has this one close to even. Illinois’s offense is at the 84th percentile on efficiency; Maryland’s defense is at the 38th.
How they got here
Last three games
Illinois · 3-3
Rated 70th in our preseason ratings, 81st now, down 11 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Maryland · 2-5
Rated 76th in our preseason ratings, 107th now, down 31 spots.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s rushing EPA against Maryland, 48 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Illinois’s EPA/play against Maryland’s defense
Illinois offense, 84th percentile · Maryland defense, 38th
Illinois’s rushing EPA against Maryland’s defense
Illinois offense, 87th percentile · Maryland defense, 39th
Maryland’s explosive plays against Illinois’s defense
Maryland offense, 53rd percentile · Illinois defense, 36th
What’s at stake
Illinois
- Illinois is 3 games back in Big Ten with 4 left to make it up.
- Bret Bielema is 2-1 all-time against Mike Locksley.
Maryland
- Maryland is 4 games back in Big Ten with 4 left to make it up.
- Maryland hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2019.
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 2018 · Illinois has won the last 2
- 2025Illinois 24-6
- 2023Illinois 27-24
- 2021Maryland 20-17
- 2018Maryland 63-33
Each line is Maryland’s chance to win through that meeting. Maryland is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Illinois
The chip · vs the national mediaIllini fans are tired of being the Big Ten game nobody previews and the program penciled in as a loss; even at 9-4 they hear the analysts wait for the regression, and they want the respect a two-year climb has earned.
What this game touches
The long winter of irrelevance. For most of the modern era Illinois was the Big Ten's forgotten program — a 2008 Rose Bowl blowout and a 2007 fluke aside, decades of losing seasons and empty Octobers that taught the fanbase to expect nothing and brace for the bottom falling out.
Maryland
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase watches the same DMV recruits it should own get pulled away by Ohio State and Penn State and Michigan, then sees those programs run the league — the sense that Maryland is a supplier to the powers it's supposed to be competing with.
What this game touches
The Big Ten weight. Since leaving the ACC for the Big Ten in 2014, Maryland has mostly lived in the league's lower half. 2025 bottomed out at 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) in Mike Locksley's seventh year — a season that asked whether the program can ever be more than a recruiting feeder for the conference's heavyweights.
Best players
Illinois
- Collin Dixon (WR) · 608 receiving yards
- Matthew Bailey (DB) · 41 tackles
- Ismael Kante (LB) · 37 tackles
Maryland
- Chris Durr Jr. (WR) · 580 receiving yards
- Daniel Wingate (LB) · 45 tackles
- Carlton Smith (LB) · 44 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Illinois fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (16th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at SECU Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 91 to 93
Illinois at Maryland · Saturday, Oct. 31 · SECU Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at SECU Stadium: noon Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm 91, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Maryland is worth +2.9 points (±5.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 28th percentile.
43% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (20-27 home, 13-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.7 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±7.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 606 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Maryland
- Wk 3Lvs Virginia Tech26-35
- Wk 4Lvs UCLA3-54
- Wk 5Lat Nebraska23-48
- Wk 6Lat Ohio State16-45
- Wk 7Lvs Rutgers30-37
Illinois
- Wk 2Lvs Duke27-31
- Wk 3Wvs Southern Illinois48-10
- Wk 4Lat Ohio State19-42
- Wk 5Lvs Purdue17-24
- Wk 6Wat Michigan State38-37
Power rating by week
Illinois is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Illinois 27, Maryland 24Oct 14, 2023
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2021.