2Rutgers win total fell from 5 to 3.5 (-1.5 wins) between May 2026 and Jun 2026.
Schiano's sixth season arrives with a 5-7 record and win total dip from 5 to 3.5 — a historic program's reset now faces its first real test.
2Schiano's sixth season arrives with a 5-7 record and win total dip from 5 to 3.5 — a historic program's reset now faces its first real test.
Rutgers held the first college football game in history — November 6, 1869, against Princeton — and ever since has been the program that gave the sport to the world and then watched the world get better at it.
Rutgers fans are weary of being the Big Ten's welcome mat — the school the blue bloods schedule for a comfortable Saturday. They'll remind you who held the first game ever, and that the founder doesn'…
Approaching
28 days
until kickoff · vs Massachusetts · Thu Sep 3 · 22:00 UTC
Rutgers is the program that played the first-ever college football game — November 6, 1869 vs Princeton — and whose Greg Schiano-second-era Big Ten reset answers what historic-program-resurrected looks like.
With a balanced transfer portal churn and high continuity, Rutgers is expected to finish with a bowl-eligible record.
The Scarlet Knight stands at attention.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Schiano's sixth season arrives with a 5-7 record and win total dip from 5 to 3.5 — a historic program's reset now faces its first real test.
Antwan Raymond does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
Ian Strong produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
KJ Duff is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
Antwan Raymond: a short yardage signal screened this season.
DT Sheffield: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
KJ Duff: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Rutgers collapsed 30 spots in SP+ — the steepest drop in the Big Ten this cycle, and Schiano's job is to prove it's not structural with just 5-7 production returning.
Greg Schiano begins his sixth season with a 5-7 losing record hanging over Rutgers, whose historic identity clashes with its current middle-tier status in the Big Ten.
Rutgers: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Aiden Gibson flips to Rutgers
Penn State's recruiting problem just got a name attached to it — a four-star flip to Rutgers, in the Big Ten, hits different when Schiano's class is already sitting at #33 and the WR room needed this kind of upside.
Messiah Tilson rises on depth chart
Pressure at receiver was already real before KJ Duff took center stage at Big Ten Media Days — Tilson climbing the depth chart is Schiano's internal answer to a room that can't afford another wasted development cycle.
LB Sean Allison transfer commits from Drake
Pioneer League linebacker to Big Ten — quiet pull, the kind of evaluation that makes Schiano's defense work.
Win total: 5 → 4.5 (▼0.5)
Win total slid from 5 to 4.5 without a clear public catalyst — worth watching as the offseason firms up.
Win total: 3.5 → 5 (▲1.5)
5 → 3.5 → 5 in one offseason — the market's bouncing on Schiano because nobody agrees whether a #33 class and one draft departure is a foundation or just noise in the Big Ten meat grinder.
Win total: 5 → 3.5 (▼1.5)
A 1.5-win drop on a team that lost one draft pick and ranked 33rd in class — the market isn't buying the WR pressure as solved, and Schiano's rebuild ceiling is getting priced accordingly.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
34th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Rutgers · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Rutgers win total fell from 5 to 3.5 (-1.5 wins) between May 2026 and Jun 2026. It is win total down 1.5 from 5.0 to 3.5. The market moved and the room hasn't caught up. Low discourse on a line move usually means the signal hit before the narrative did. Discourse is thin — the market moved faster than the reaction.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 318 of 1614 board posts (20%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (416 posts): 8% positive · 79% neutral · 13% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rutgers enters 2025 rated No. 72 in SP+ (+1.0), down 30 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The coverage is thin. Quiet preseasons end two ways.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 318 of 1614 board posts (20%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (416 posts): 8% positive · 79% neutral · 13% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 3
vs Massachusetts · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
PA leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
102 signees across 20 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
11 games with TV coverage: 3 national broadcast, 2 cable, 6 conference network
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 5 afternoon, 2 primetime
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 43% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
3 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Cashing in at a normal clip: 18% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
5 interceptions of 28 disrupted passes (23 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags have favored them: 59 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 49 committed, 164 yards to the good.
391 penalty yards committed vs. 555 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
One voice
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.02 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
Wisconsin Coach Luke Fickell: another hot seat opponent
onthebanks.com →How Rutgers fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readRutgers fans are leaning negative, with a bit less hard evidence than most fanbases.
✓ counted We read 416 posts from Rutgers fans this week.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Dude is like the ultimate example of P5 college football purgatory: will probably never get the team to the next level of achievement, but has done too well to easily justify firing.
Our famously defensive oriented coach had one of the worst defenses of his career this year, possibly THE worst. You get the 2023 defense with this year's offense and we're probably 9-3.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Aug 29, 2025–Nov 30, 2025 · via CFB
i don't even know how much they can do about it at this point. we're going to need the offense to help keep us in games if we want to find 3 more wins this year.
we're going to need the offense to help keep us in games if we want to find 3 more wins this year.
Based on 2 comments from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 13, 2025 · via CFB
Rutgers' Greg Schiano calls his 5-7 unacceptable last season, and feels he's fixed it. Says the emphasis is on better ball security and forcing turnovers, cites the hiring of new DC Travis Johansen.
Based on 1 comment across 1 thread · Jul 28, 2026
“See, if they lost I could've stopped caring about this season. But now I have to deal with 11 more weeks of this.”— r/CFB
“This game was a Sickos masterpiece. I'd say to hang it in the Louvre but it would just get stolen. Hugh Freeze get ready to learn multimillion dollar buyout”— r/CFB
“Sorry, Vols fans. As a Bills fan I know that feeling of: 1. Missing a game winning kick wide right 2. Unable to beat a particular red opponent when it counts”— r/CFB
“ODU-JMU will be the de facto Sun Belt title game. I will be shocked if anyone besides those two teams wins the conference.”— r/CFB
“I don't have any extra couches laying around but if we win I'll burn some of the brush around my property tomorrow in your honor.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Rutgers · high confidence
“Jeez, I'm not used to a crap defense from Schiano.”
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Passer · +0.28 EPA/play | 16 | 12 | 229 / 368 | 62.2 | 3124 #29 FBS | 8.5 | 20 #42 FBS | 7 | 147.7 | 59.9 | 7.5 | 8.5 | |
Yards by week → Vertical PasserElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 9 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.4 92th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-0.3 bottom 18th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Athan Kaliakmanis's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.23 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 244 | 1241 #14 FBS | 5.1 | 13 #25 FBS | 51 | 22.7 | 17.5 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 6.9% (25/361) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.9 65th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.5 93th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 98th percentile among FBS RBs, up from the 47th | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 20 | 10 | 68 | 328 | 4.8 | 2 | 19 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 13.0 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Ja'shon Benjamin's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.18 EPA/play | 5 | 3 | 22 | 119 | 5.4 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 4.8 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.76 EPA/play | 8 | 12 | 60 | 1084 #10 FBS | 18.1 | 7 #38 FBS | 72 | 9.3 | 15.8 | 26.3% (95/361) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception18.2 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume60 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 51st percentile to the 97th among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.57 EPA/play | 9 | 10 | 52 | 762 | 14.7 | 5 | 45 | 11.8 | 15.2 | 22.4% (81/361) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.8 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume52 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ian Strong's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.58 EPA/play | — | 12 | 44 | 577 | 13.1 | 5 | 54 | 11.3 | 12 | 19.7% (71/361) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View DT Sheffield's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.36 EPA/play | 12 | 11 | 26 | 236 | 9.1 | 0 | 39 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 10.5% (38/361) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.3 73th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenny Fletcher's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.42 EPA/play | 2 | 10 | 8 | 119 | 14.9 | 1 | 37 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 4.7% (17/361) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.08 EPA/play | 18 | 9 | 17 | 102 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 6.1% (22/361) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.7 bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Colin Weber's full player page | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 12 | 37 | 16 | 10 | 2.5 | 10 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.0% 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 100th to 77th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 12 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 2.5 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 98th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 72nd | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 14 | 11 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Jordan Thompson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 1 | 11 | 25 | 12 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Jordan Walker's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 14th to 26th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Keshon Griffin's full player page | |||||||
| 92 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 90 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 97 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 91 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 12 | 67 | 33 | 34 | 5.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Dariel Djabome's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 11 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Abram Wright's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 2 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.9% 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Moses Walker's full player page | |||||||||
| 4 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 9 | 12 | 77 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Box Safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume77 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jett Elad's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 5 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume64 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kaj Sanders's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 12 | 48 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Bo Mascoe's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 12 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 55th percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 10th, now back up to 72nd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 12 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 88th to 30th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| 21 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 44 | 12 | 13/18 | 72.2 | 37/39 | 76 | 51 |
| 29 | 2 | 0/1 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 94 | 11 | 33 | 1460 | 44.2 | 68 | 10 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.42 EPA/play | 2 | 10 | 7 | 125 | 17.9 | 0 | 29 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+13 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #66 | #61 | -15.5 | Ohio | W 34–31 122 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #64 | #32 | -15.5 | Miami (OH) | W 45–17 122 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #58 | #246 | -45.5 | Norfolk State | W 60–10 130 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #62 | #33 | +2 | Iowa | L 28–38 126 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #57 | #28 | +4 | @Minnesota | L 28–31 133 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #53 | #28 | +9.5 | @Washington | L 19–38 133 | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #60 | #3 | +18.5 | Oregon | L 10–56 129 | 3-4 | 0-4 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #85 | #109 | +2.5 | @Purdue | W 27–24 126 | 4-4 | 1-4 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #81 | #44 | +13 | @Illinois | L 13–35 141 | 4-5 | 1-5 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #86 | #83 | -1.5 | Maryland | W 35–20 126 | 5-5 | 2-5 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #84 | #1 | +28.5 | @Ohio State | L 9–42 115 | 5-6 | 2-6 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #87 | #10 | +14 | Penn State | L 36–40 118 | 5-7 | 2-7 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | Penn State | L 36–40 | 533 | 1 | 32:24 | +0.286 | 53.0% | 133.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 22 | @Ohio State | L 9–42 | 147 | 1 | 27:11 | -0.119 | 33.9% | 89.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | Maryland | W 35–20 | 485 | 2 | 34:58 | +0.316 | 51.4% | 130.8% | |
| Nov 1 | @Illinois | L 13–35 | 312 | 0 | 27:25 | +0.153 | 42.7% | 126.5% | |
| Oct 25 | @Purdue | W 27–24 | 543 | 1 | 36:58 | +0.242 | 48.7% | 122.8% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | Oregon | L 10–56 | 202 | 3 | 32:07 | -0.108 | 29.4% | 106.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 11 | @Washington | L 19–38 | 493 | 1 | 30:12 | +0.104 | 39.0% | 132.7% | |
| Sep 27 | @Minnesota | L 28–31 | 393 | 1 | 31:05 | +0.209 | 50.7% | 121.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | Iowa | L 28–38 | 400 | 1 | 31:06 | +0.253 | 44.3% | 114.5% | |
| Sep 13 | Norfolk State | W 60–10 | 563 | 0 | 36:05 | +0.460 | 53.1% | 134.8% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Miami (OH) | W 45–17 | 421 | 0 | 39:06 | +0.274 | 53.2% | 110.6% | Best success rate |
| Aug 28 | Ohio | W 34–31 | 399 | 0 | 31:45 | +0.328 | 50.0% | 118.0% | One-score win |
| Season average (12 games) | 408 | 0.9 | +0.200 | 45.8% | 120.2% | ||||
Rutgers fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
70th percentile quality, 27th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 84th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 62nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
71st percentile success on standard downs, 84th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 66th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 77th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 69th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.33 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Rutgers reads strongest in success rate (top 21%) and passing epa (top 26%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Rutgers sits at the 1st percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Rutgers
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Rutgers · 2018-present
38% home win rate vs 31% on the road. margin runs +9.5 better at home. SHI Stadium seats 52,454, averaging 94% full (49,226 attendance, 26 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Antwan Raymond and Ja'shon Benjamin split the carries (245/314 vs 69/314) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Antwan Raymond gets the goal line.
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Positional competition · WR/TE room
KJ Duff (WR) and Kenny Fletcher (TE) split the targets (92/130 vs 38/130) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved up 12 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 11 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Rutgers’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.7% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 100-play sample) — mid-pack, 40 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
62°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 76 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Rutgers's 2014–2025 record is 52-92. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1869 · 151 seasons · .455 win rate
Rutgers played the first college football game in history — November 6, 1869, in New Brunswick, against Princeton. The sport traces itself to that day. The program that started everything is still looking for its first Big Ten title.
The marker on the Rutgers campus notes where the first game was played. Every New Jersey fan knows the date. It is the program's permanent identity: the founder, the one without which none of the rest of it exists. The sport grew up around that origin story and left Rutgers on the margins of it for most of a century — until Greg Schiano arrived, built an 11-2 team in 2006, and briefly made Piscataway must-watch television. Ray Rice ran for 1,794 yards that season. Rutgers rallied from 25-7 down to beat No. 3 Louisville 28-25 and the crowd stormed the field.
Schiano left, came back in 2020, and has been building a second time. The 2025 season went 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten), and the defense collapsed badly enough that Schiano cleared out the defensive staff in the offseason. A bowl bid against Georgia Southern was declined. The patience in Piscataway is not infinite; the Big Ten was supposed to raise the ceiling, and the ceiling has been slow to rise. The internal fracture is honest: one side treasures the 1869 identity and trusts Schiano to finish what he started; the other wants wins the conference actually counts.
What 2026 will answer is whether Schiano's second-era rebuild has enough left to produce a signature Big Ten season. The founder does not need permission to belong in this league. But the league only recognizes results.
Schiano-ball: physical, defense-first, and culture-obsessed. The program identity is toughness before talent — Schiano's two eras have both been defined by installing a standard of conditioning and program cohesion before chasing stars. Special teams are a genuine priority, not an afterthought. The 2025 defensive collapse is the anomaly that demands correction; the base identity, when it's working, is a Big Ten-caliber unit that makes offensive drives expensive.
Rutgers 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.15 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 1.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7
Rutgers: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Big Ten Standing · 2025
Rutgers is 14th of 18 in the Big Ten at 2-7. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | 11-0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 9-1 |
| 3 | Oregon | 8-2 |
| 4 | Michigan | 7-2 |
| 5 | USC | 7-2 |
| 6 | Iowa | 6-3 |
| 7 | Illinois | 5-4 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 5-4 |
| 9 | Washington | 5-4 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 4-5 |
| 11 | Northwestern | 4-5 |
| 12 | Penn State | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCLA | 3-6 |
| 14 | Rutgers | 2-7 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 2-7 |
| 16 | Maryland | 1-8 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 1-8 |
| 18 | Purdue | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Rutgers
Greg Schiano has held the program for 7 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1869
Rutgers beat Princeton 6-4 at College Field in New Brunswick on November 6, 1869 — the first-ever intercollegiate football game. The 25-player-per-side rules differed from modern football; the game's status as 'football's birthplace' is the program's permanent + unique historical anchor. No other program can claim this.
since 2001
Greg Schiano's first tenure (2001-2011) produced the 2006 11-2 + Texas Bowl championship — the modern peak. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers detour (2012-2013) + Ohio State assistant tenure (2016-2018) ended with the 2020 return to Rutgers. The second era (2020-) has rebuilt the program from a 2-10 floor through bowl-eligibility cycles.
since 2000s
Rutgers 'Chop' — the choreographed defensive-team gesture + chant — is the program's modern identity marker. Borrowed from Atlanta Braves-style tomahawk-chop visuals, adapted to Rutgers's scarlet identity. The chop signals defensive stops + recruiting-class commitments.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1869
Rutgers beats Princeton 6-4 in New Brunswick — the first game in the sport's history
2006
Undefeated, 15th-ranked Rutgers rallies from 25-7 down to beat No. 3 Louisville 28-25 on a late Jeremy Ito field goal; fans storm the field
Rutgers wins the first bowl in program history, capping an 11-2 breakthrough season
Moment of the Year · Rutgers · 2025
Week 13 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — loss 44-41 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20268 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Travis Johansen — not yet reflected in on-field data.