Rutgers at Northwestern
Rutgers (2‑4) at Northwestern (#24, 5‑1) — Northwestern is favored by 16.5. The model gives Northwestern a 80% shot. Northwestern’s offense is at the 89th percentile on efficiency; Rutgers’s defense is at the 13th.
How they got here
Last three games
Rutgers · 2-4
Rated 68th in our preseason ratings, 91st now, down 23 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Maryland as a 5.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Northwestern · 5-1
Rated 14th in our preseason ratings, 16th now.
Three straight wins, including a 21-point win over Penn State as a 3-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Northwestern’s EPA/play against Rutgers, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Northwestern’s EPA/play against Rutgers’s defense
Northwestern offense, 89th percentile · Rutgers defense, 13th
Northwestern’s rushing EPA against Rutgers’s defense
Northwestern offense, 82nd percentile · Rutgers defense, 6th
Northwestern’s explosive plays against Rutgers’s defense
Northwestern offense, 84th percentile · Rutgers defense, 32nd
What’s at stake
Rutgers
- Rutgers needs 4 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 27% to get there with a win here, 7% with a loss.
- A win would be one of Rutgers’s biggest of the season — a 75-spot gap in the power ratings.
Northwestern
- Northwestern is ranked #24, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Northwestern hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2020.
The series
Rutgers leads the series 4-2
6 meetings since 1919 · Rutgers won the last meeting
- 2023Rutgers 24-7
- 2021Northwestern 21-7
- 2018Northwestern 18-15
- 1991Rutgers 22-18
- 1989Rutgers 38-27
Each line is Northwestern’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Rutgers
The chip · vs big brotherRutgers fans are weary of being the Big Ten's welcome mat — the school the blue bloods schedule for a comfortable Saturday. They'll remind you who held the first game ever, and that the founder doesn't need anyone's permission to stay.
What this game touches
The founder who can't quite arrive. Rutgers spent 150 years on the sport's margins, then bought into the Big Ten in 2014 expecting the rising tide to lift it. The 2025 team went 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten) and turned down a bowl bid against Georgia Southern; Greg Schiano cleared out his defensive staff after the unit collapsed. The founder is still looking for its first real Big Ten breakthrough.
Northwestern
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery preseason the Wildcats are picked to finish last, and every few years they don't — and the fanbase has stopped expecting credit for it. They've learned to treat being underestimated as the natural state of a program that was never supposed to belong.
Best players
Rutgers
- KJ Duff (WR) · 741 receiving yards
- Antwan Raymond (RB) · 498 rushing yards
- Chris Joines (DB) · 29 tackles
Northwestern
- Braydon Brus (LB) · 52 tackles
- Robert Fitzgerald (DB) · 45 tackles
- Kobie McKinzie (LB) · 43 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Rutgers fans are in a better mood than Northwestern fans (55th vs 29th among FBS fanbases), even with Northwestern favored.
- Model · 80%
- Line · 91%
- Northwestern fans · 29th
- Rutgers fans · 55th
Northwestern favored by 16.5 · Total 58.5
Northwestern by 16.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Northwestern’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Ryan Field: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 87 to 89
Rutgers at Northwestern · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · Ryan Field.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Ryan Field: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 87.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 87, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Northwestern is worth +5.3 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 70th percentile.
52% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (21-19 home, 14-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 85 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 694 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Northwestern
- Wk 3Wvs Colorado41-7
- Wk 4Lat Indiana23-29
- Wk 5Wvs Penn State34-13
- Wk 6Wvs Ball State45-14
- Wk 7Wat Michigan State24-21
Rutgers
- Wk 2Lat Boston College21-28
- Wk 3Lvs USC35-42
- Wk 4Wvs Howard58-7
- Wk 5Lvs Indiana15-47
- Wk 7Wat Maryland37-30
Power rating by week
Northwestern is rated 10.0 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northwestern8th2-1
- Rutgers12th1-2