Northwestern routs Ball State 45-14
Team pages: Ball State · Northwestern
Northwestern routed Ball State 45-14. Share this game
We had Northwestern favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northwestern a 98% chance, and the closing betting line (Northwestern was a 34.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Northwestern led by 14 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.
Northwestern · Q2 3:04Northwestern 45-14 Ball State
Northwestern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Ball State 14-45 NorthwesternBall State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Northwestern -34.5), at 99% for Northwestern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Northwestern’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 3:07Chiles 19-yd TD pass to WildeNorthwestern leads 14-0Q1, 3:07 · Northwestern 14, Ball State 014-0score after the play14-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 14:49Luster sacked for a 8-yd lossQ2, 14:49 · Northwestern 14, Ball State 014-0score after the play14-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 10:52Komolafe 14-yd TD runNorthwestern leads 21-0Q2, 10:52 · Northwestern 21, Ball State 021-0score after the play21-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 8:20Horton 1-yd TD runcuts it to 21-7Q2, 8:20 · Northwestern 21, Ball State 721-7score after the play21-7score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q2, 3:04Luster intercepted by Fitzgerald at the BSU15 and returned for a TDNorthwestern leads 31-7Q2, 3:04 · Northwestern 31, Ball State 731-7score after the play31-7score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 10:12Chiles 12-yd TD pass to WagnerNorthwestern leads 38-14Q3, 10:12 · Northwestern 38, Ball State 1438-14score after the play38-14score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 0:53Chiles 32-yd TD pass to HonigNorthwestern leads 45-14Q3, 0:53 · Northwestern 45, Ball State 1445-14score after the play45-14score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 9:10Luster sacked for a 13-yd lossQ4, 9:10 · Northwestern 45, Ball State 1445-14score after the play45-14score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
Every drive
Northwestern scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Ball State on 2 of its 10.
Northwestern’s drives are teal, Ball State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Northwestern’s chance to make the playoff rose from 8% to 9%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Northwestern 45, Ball State 14
Ball State covered +34.5 by 3.5. The total, 59, went over 53.5.
| Team totals | Ball State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 360 | 436 |
| Passing | 32 of 47, 270 yds | 17 of 24, 272 yds |
| Rushing | 31 for 90 yds | 31 for 164 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 26 |
| Third down | 5 of 17 | 4 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 15 for 119 yds | 8 for 53 yds |
| Time of possession | 33:59 | 26:01 |
Ball State leaders
- Passing Keldric Luster 27 of 41, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Ace Cooper 2 for 15 yds; Johnny Thompson Jr. 7 for 15 yds
- Receiving Jabari Smith 7 for 64 yds; Donovan Hamilton 2 for 53 yds
Northwestern leaders
- Passing Aidan Chiles 17 of 23, 272 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Caleb Komolafe 8 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Joseph Himon II 3 for 42 yds
- Receiving Griffin Wilde 8 for 144 yds, 1 TD; Drew Wagner 4 for 61 yds, 1 TD
No rain, gusts to 25 mph
77° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 14 mph from the south, gusts to 25
A 25 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 87% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
The usual here around this date is 61°, with about 7 in 10 games between 51° and 73°.
Game-day temperatures at Ryan Field
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Palwaukee airport, 12 miles away, and Chicago Ohare airport, 14 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Ball State · 1-4
Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 164th now.
Three straight losses.
Last 4 games
Northwestern · 3-1
Rated 14th in our preseason ratings, 12th now.
3-1 in its last 4, capped by a 21-point win over Penn State as a 3-point underdog.
Week by week
Northwestern
- Wk 1Wvs South Dakota State34-18
- Wk 3Wvs Colorado41-7
- Wk 4Lat Indiana23-29
- Wk 5Wvs Penn State34-13
Ball State
- Wk 1Lat Ohio State3-56
- Wk 2Wvs Stony Brook41-17
- Wk 3Lat Liberty15-51
- Wk 4Lat Kent State13-26
- Wk 5Lvs Toledo24-39
Power rating by week
Northwestern is rated 15.7 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Northwestern’s EPA/play against Ball State, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Northwestern’s EPA/play against Ball State’s defense
Northwestern offense, 89th percentile · Ball State defense, 1st
Northwestern’s passing EPA against Ball State’s defense
Northwestern offense, 82nd percentile · Ball State defense, 1st
Northwestern’s explosive plays against Ball State’s defense
Northwestern offense, 84th percentile · Ball State defense, 8th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Northwestern leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2015 · Northwestern won the last meeting
- 2015Northwestern 24-19
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Northwestern fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (79th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Northwestern favored by 34.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Northwestern by 34.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Ball State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −36.5 → −34.5 · Total: 52.5 → 53.5
Home field
Northwestern is worth +5.3 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 71st percentile.
52% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (21-19 home, 14-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 85 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 174 miles to get here.