Liberty4-82Jamey Chadwell's third season at Liberty follows a 4-8 losing record, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate a middle-tier program past its current ceiling.
Liberty went undefeated into a Fiesta Bowl in 2023 — and two years later posted its first losing season in two decades, a young FBS program suddenly trying to climb back to a peak it only just reached.
Fans bristle at being dismissed as a young regional program that overachieved once and is now reverting — they remember the unbeaten regular season and the New Year's Six stage, and they refuse to let…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at James Madison · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
Liberty is the Conference USA program whose Hugh Freeze rebuild + 2023 13-1 + Fiesta Bowl appearance + Jamey Chadwell-era ascent answer what FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
With a high continuity roster and strong transfer additions, Liberty is positioned for a significant improvement in 2026. The team's net portal importer status and high returning player percentage suggest a competitive edge.
Sparky the Flame is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Liberty collapsed 31 spots in SP+ — the 4-8 record and 1% returning production contrast sharply with the 2023 13-1 Fiesta Bowl run, exposing the fragility of Jamey Chadwell's rebuild after Hugh Freeze's departure.
Donte Lee Jr is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Liberty collapsed 31 spots in SP+ — the 4-8 record and top-quintile returning production under Chadwell can't offset Conference USA's steepest analytical slide.
Jamey Chadwell's third season at Liberty follows a 4-8 losing record, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate a middle-tier program past its current ceiling.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
15th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Liberty · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Liberty enters 2026 rated No. 102 in 2025 SP+ (-9.0), down 31 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 53 of 202 board posts (26%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Liberty enters 2025 rated No. 102 in SP+ (-9.0), down 31 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 53 of 202 board posts (26%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Sep 5
vs James Madison · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
GA leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
75 signees across 16 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
6 games with TV coverage: 5 cable, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 3 afternoon, 2 primetime
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 75% recovered, vs. ~49% expected.
6 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 12 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Deflections without payoff: 14% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.
6 interceptions of 42 disrupted passes (36 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags haven't favored them: 74 penalties committed vs. 63 drawn on opponents, 116 yards behind.
667 penalty yards committed vs. 551 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 5 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Liberty fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Yeah and no one gets any championships until Mississippi changes their flag! /s
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readLiberty fans are down on the program, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 53 posts from Liberty fans this week.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Liberty · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.16 EPA/play | 15 | 10 | 151 / 266 | 56.8 | 1961 | 7.4 | 10 | 12 | 122.1 | 46.1 | 5.7 | 3.6 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.3 bottom 45th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readthe one real worry is the interceptions — bottom 6% of FBS quarterbacks in interception rate. | |||||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 21 / 41 | 51.2 | 350 | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | 131.0 | 40.6 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.17 EPA/play | 23 | 11 | 228 | 1325 #10 FBS | 5.8 | 16 #6 FBS | 95 | 21.5 | 12.2 | 15.8 | 14.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.8 72th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception13.0 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Evan Dickens's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.07 EPA/play | 21 | 7 | 56 | 243 | 4.3 | 0 | 25 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 14.5 | 10.9 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.8 bottom 32th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Caden Williams's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.08 EPA/play | 24 | 10 | 47 | 234 | 5.0 | 2 | 22 | 3.1 | 4.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.7 bottom 43th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception14.9 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Vaughn Blue's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.56 EPA/play | 9 | 11 | 32 | 589 | 18.4 | 5 | 62 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 18.0% (40/222) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Money-downWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate15.6% 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception15.5 73th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Donte Lee Jr's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 3 | 11 | 28 | 315 | 11.2 | 0 | 20 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 19.4% (43/222) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.6 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamari Person's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.50 EPA/play | 6 | 10 | 23 | 209 | 9.1 | 1 | 23 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 12.2% (27/222) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Reese Smith's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.76 EPA/play | 84 | 9 | 14 | 191 | 13.6 | 2 | 43 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 7.7% (17/222) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.2 96th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 76th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacob Jenkins's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.67 EPA/play | 8 | 5 | 7 | 128 | 18.3 | 0 | 40 | 4.7 | 6.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.44 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 10 | 102 | 10.2 | 0 | 17 | 5.9 | 6.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.75 EPA/play | 83 | 5 | 7 | 73 | 10.4 | 0 | 26 | 3.2 | 4.2 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 94 | 12 | 42 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Nathan Pirolli's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 10 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.8% 50th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 19th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 49th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 1 | 11 | 27 | 12 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.4% 73th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 83rd percentile among FBS IDLs to the 46th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Mike Jarvis's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 11 | 22 | 10 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.8% bottom 21th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce Dixon's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 55 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Donovan Dozier's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 12 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 4.5 | 4 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate40.9% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 14th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 26th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 57 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.0% bottom 16th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aaron Hester's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 4 of 21 games this season · sophomore View DJ Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Markus Clark's full player page | |||||||
| 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 56 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 88 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 11 | 71 | 38 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Derrell Farrar's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 7 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Joseph Carter's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 7 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume28 bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Micah Pollard's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 33 | 9 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Aidan Vaughan's full player page | |||||||||
| 9 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 35 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perimeter Tackler | 13 | 12 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume48 91th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Damond Harmon's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 6 | 11 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume44 86th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Christian Bodnar's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 10 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 2nd to 26th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 10 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.8% 74th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 95th percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 16th, now back up to 55th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 29 | 12 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume39 bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View A'Khori Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 26 | 11 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Amarian Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 20 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 70th percentile to the 33rd among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% bottom 37th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devin Henderson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2024 class View Eldric Griffin's full player page | |||||||
| — | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 43 | 11 | 15/20 | 75 | 33/33 | 78 | 50 |
| 85 | 3 | 1/2 | 50 | 2/2 | 5 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 37 | 12 | 46 | 1896 | 41.2 | 61 | 16 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.24 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 11 | 313 | 28.5 | 1 | 96 |
| 10 | 4 | 10 | 215 | 21.5 | 0 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.50 EPA/play | 6 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #38 | #209 | -25.5 | Maine | W 28–7 73 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #60 | #56 | -6.5 | @Jacksonville State | L 24–34 126 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #44 | #122 | -6.5 | @Bowling Green | L 13–23 131 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #51 | #48 | +7.5 | James Madison | L 13–31 127 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #58 | #46 | +14.5 | @Old Dominion | L 7–21 122 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 9 | #67 | #146 | -2 | @UTEP | W 19–8 132 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 14 | #65 | #229 | -10.5 | New Mexico State | W 30–27 135 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #87 | #124 | -3.5 | Delaware | W 59–30 139 | 4-4 | 2-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #72 | #146 | -7.5 | Missouri State | L 17–21 135 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #79 | #124 | -4.5 | @Florida International | L 27–34 146 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #91 | #127 | -1 | @Louisiana Tech | L 28–34 140 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #96 | #116 | +2.5 | Kennesaw State | L 42–48 146 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | Kennesaw State | L 42–48 | 503 | 1 | 32:57 | +0.274 | 43.8% | 127.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 22 | @Louisiana Tech | L 28–34 | 424 | 4 | 27:15 | +0.160 | 44.6% | 134.9% | One-score loss |
| Nov 15 | @Florida International | L 27–34 | 378 | 2 | 29:49 | +0.054 | 47.4% | 105.0% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | Missouri State | L 17–21 | 398 | 2 | 33:25 | +0.175 | 45.0% | 115.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | Delaware | W 59–30 | 561 | 0 | 31:30 | +0.578 | 50.8% | 162.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 14 | New Mexico State | W 30–27 | 293 | 3 | 26:07 | +0.007 | 47.5% | 76.7% | One-score win |
| Oct 9 | @UTEP | W 19–8 | 408 | 0 | 39:57 | +0.110 | 37.5% | 109.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 27 | @Old Dominion | L 7–21 | 207 | 3 | 27:58 | -0.015 | 36.4% | 69.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | James Madison | L 13–31 | 233 | 0 | 26:57 | -0.009 | 29.8% | 131.8% | |
| Sep 13 | @Bowling Green | L 13–23 | 332 | 4 | 28:51 | +0.080 | 43.5% | 130.1% | |
| Sep 6 | @Jacksonville State | L 24–34 | 534 | 2 | 29:36 | +0.374 | 45.5% | 156.1% | |
| Aug 30 | Maine | W 28–7 | 391 | 0 | 33:34 | +0.130 | 45.9% | 115.5% | |
| Season average (12 games) | 388 | 1.8 | +0.160 | 43.1% | 119.6% | ||||
Liberty fields a limited run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a leaky defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
43rd percentile quality, 56th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 63rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 60th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
65th percentile success on standard downs, 53rd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 43rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 69th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.16; 67th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.25 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Liberty reads strongest in rushing epa (top 24%) and success rate (top 42%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Liberty sits at the 22nd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Liberty
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Liberty · 2018-present
80% home win rate vs 50% on the road. margin runs +11.1 better at home. Williams Stadium (VA) seats 25,000, averaging 78% full (19,546 attendance, 26 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Evan Dickens and Caden Williams split the carries (211/264 vs 53/264) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Jamari Person (WR) and Jacob Jenkins (TE) split the targets (43/60 vs 17/60) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jacob Jenkins produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 14 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Liberty’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.5% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 146-play sample) — mid-pack, 83 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
65°F average kickoff temp; 18% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 50 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Liberty's 2014–2025 record is 90-55. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1981 · 31 seasons · .582 win rate
Liberty went 13-1, won Conference USA in its first year in the league, and played in the Fiesta Bowl in 2023. Two years later: 4-8, the program's first losing season in two decades. The Flames are trying to remember which one was real.
The 2023 season was the proof of concept for everything Liberty built after joining the FBS in 2018. An undefeated regular season. A Conference USA title in year one of membership. The first Group-of-Five program from that league ever to reach a New Year's Six bowl. Kaidon Salter at quarterback, Jamey Chadwell running the offense, and a No. 18 final AP ranking that certified Liberty as a genuine program, not a well-resourced novelty. Hugh Freeze had built the foundation; Chadwell had taken it to the Fiesta Bowl.
Then the 2025 collapse: 4-8, 3-5 in Conference USA, the program's first losing record in twenty years. For a young FBS program, two seasons between the Fiesta Bowl and four wins is an unusually violent oscillation. The oldest doubt about Liberty — that the rise was an anomaly, that a private Christian university in the Blue Ridge foothills can't sustain what it briefly became — has a data point again. Chadwell enters 2026 as the answer to a question fans are not sure how to ask: rebuild, or slide?
The 2026 season is the clearest verdict Liberty will have had on its own trajectory. The Fiesta Bowl happened. The 4-8 year also happened. What 2026 determines is which of those two years was the exception and which was the program's actual altitude. Lynchburg believes the Fiesta Bowl was the floor. The schedule will say.
Up-tempo, dual-threat-QB offense — the score-fast identity that powered the undefeated 2023 regular season and made Liberty's rise legible to the national audience. Salter-era football was built around quick decisions, designed runs, and the kind of tempo that small-roster programs use to even out physical mismatches. The 2025 collapse suggests the depth behind that scheme broke faster than expected. Chadwell's 2026 task is rebuilding the personnel without abandoning the identity that got Liberty to the Fiesta Bowl in the first place.
Liberty 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.07 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Liberty: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Conference USA Standing · 2025
Liberty is 7th of 10 in the Conference USA at 2-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennesaw State | 6-1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 6-2 |
| 3 | Western Kentucky | 5-2 |
| 4 | Florida International | 5-3 |
| 5 | Missouri State | 4-2 |
| 6 | Delaware | 2-4 |
| 7 | Liberty | 2-4 |
| 8 | Middle Tennessee | 2-6 |
| 9 | New Mexico State | 1-5 |
| 10 | Sam Houston | 1-5 |
Coaching Era · Liberty
Jamey Chadwell has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2018
Liberty's 2018 FBS reclassification (from FCS) → 2018-2022 independent FBS schedule → 2023 Conference USA entry — the most-recent program to make the full FCS-to-FBS-conference ascent. The four-year independent schedule period (2018-2022) included Hugh Freeze's program-rebuild era + multiple bowl appearances. The C-USA entry completed the tier transition.
since 2019
Hugh Freeze's tenure (2019-2022) — coming off the 2017 Ole Miss firing and a multi-year hiatus — rebuilt Liberty into a top-25-quality FBS independent. Four straight bowl appearances + 30+ wins + 2020 #17 AP rank produced national legitimacy. Freeze's 2022 departure to Auburn opened Jamey Chadwell's 2023 13-1 + Fiesta Bowl ascent.
since 2023
Jamey Chadwell's 2023 13-1 + Conference USA championship + Fiesta Bowl appearance + #18 final AP rank — the program's first year in C-USA. The Fiesta Bowl loss to Oregon (45-6) didn't dim the achievement; Liberty became the first ever C-USA team to make a New Year's Six bowl. The 2023 run is permanent program identity.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Liberty runs the table and wins Conference USA in its first year in the league
The first Conference USA team ever to reach a New Year's Six bowl, falling to No. 8 Oregon
A 4-8 finish — the program's first losing record in 20 years, two years removed from the Fiesta Bowl
Wound
Moment of the Year · Liberty · 2025
Week 1 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — loss 7-26 (home). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20232 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Newland Isaac — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Shawn Quinn — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Liberty · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Liberty · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Liberty
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Coaching Era · Liberty
Moment of the Year · Liberty · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline