Liberty routs Ball State 51-15
Team pages: Ball State · Liberty
Liberty routed Ball State 51-15. Share this game
We had Liberty favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Liberty a 70% chance, and the closing betting line (Liberty was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.
Liberty 51-15 Ball State
Liberty wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Ball State 15-51 LibertyBall State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Liberty -14.5), at 88% for Liberty (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Liberty scored on 8 of its 11 drives; Ball State on 2 of its 11.
Liberty’s drives are teal, Ball State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Liberty’s chance to win the conference fell from 13% to 0%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Liberty 51, Ball State 15
Liberty covered −14.5 by 21.5. The total, 66, went over 49.5.
| Team totals | Ball State | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 261 | 460 |
| Passing | 10 of 21, 93 yds | 16 of 24, 248 yds |
| Rushing | 35 for 168 yds | 40 for 212 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 23 |
| Third down | 1 of 9 | 10 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 11 for 107 yds | 3 for 25 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:01 | 31:59 |
Ball State leaders
- Passing Keldric Luster 10 of 21, 93 yds
- Rushing TJ Horton 8 for 79 yds, 2 TD; Keldric Luster 10 for 42 yds
- Receiving Isaiah Thacker 4 for 44 yds; Donovan Hamilton 2 for 19 yds
Liberty leaders
- Passing Deshawn Purdie 13 of 20, 211 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Terron Kellman 3 for 51 yds; Peyton Jones 9 for 35 yds
- Receiving Makai Jackson 4 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Darius Copeland 4 for 43 yds
No rain and calm
82° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 12
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 50 other games played at Williams Stadium (VA) since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 63° and 76°.
September game-day temperatures at Williams Stadium (VA)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Lynchburg/p. Glenn airport, 2.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Ball State · 1-1
Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 157th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last two games
Liberty · 1-1
Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 96th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Liberty
- Wk 1Lat James Madison13-20
- Wk 2Wvs Gardner-Webb24-23
Ball State
- Wk 1Lat Ohio State3-56
- Wk 2Wvs Stony Brook41-17
Power rating by week
Liberty is rated 4.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ball State’s explosive plays against Liberty, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ball State’s explosive plays against Liberty’s defense
Ball State offense, 87th percentile · Liberty defense, 11th
Liberty’s passing EPA against Ball State’s defense
Liberty offense, 71st percentile · Ball State defense, 1st
Liberty’s EPA/play against Ball State’s defense
Liberty offense, 62nd percentile · Ball State defense, 1st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Liberty leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2010 · Liberty won the last meeting
- 2010Liberty 27-23
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ball State fans are in a better mood than Liberty fans (66th vs 32nd among FBS fanbases), even with Liberty favored.
- Model · 70%
- Line · 88%
- Liberty fans · 32nd
- Ball State fans · 66th
Liberty favored by 14.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Liberty by 14.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The total fell 6 points.
Total: 55.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 83° at kickoff.
Ball State at Liberty · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Williams Stadium, Lynchburg
- 83°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 81weather score, Mixed
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Williams Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 81 at 4 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 1 pm: 85, Mixed
- 2 pm: 83, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 79, Mixed
- 4 pm: 81, Mixed (this game)
- 6 pm: 96, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:45 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Liberty is worth +4.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.
76% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (32-10 home, 24-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 390 miles to get here.