Gardner-Webb · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Gardner-Webb · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Gardner-Webb2008
Division II to FCS transition
Gardner-Webb joins the FCS after success in Division II, beginning the climb to relevance
Miracle
Gardner-Webb7-5Hope-Doping·Offseason
Gardner-Webb is the North Carolina Bulldog program that climbed from Division II to FCS in 2008 and won its first Big South championship in 2022, proving small-school relentlessness can build something.
Title DroughtSince 2022 · 3 yrs
The FCS establishment treated Gardner-Webb as the newest and smallest, and the fanbase believes they were overlooked as a Division II refugee who had no business competing. The Bulldogs won a conferen…
low signal
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · at Austin Peay · Thu Aug 27 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Gardner-Webb is the North Carolina Bulldog program that climbed from Division II to FCS in 2008 and won its first Big South championship in 2022, proving small-school relentlessness can build something.
The Bulldogs are patient.
Gardner-Webb · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 7-5
Ceiling 10-2
floor5-7Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base7-5Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling10-2Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Austin Peay · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Gardner-Webb
—
The Bulldogs are patient.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Runnin' Bulldogs."
— Gardner-Webb fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Gardner-Webb · medium confidence
Stable (51)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-5 (58% win rate)62
Volume — 3 effective signal-N40
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#63 / 138 · 55th pct27.5
Pts allowed/game#97 / 138 · 30th pct29.8
All 19 stats
Other
First down pass rate#55 / 215 · 75th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct0.50.0/gm
H1 epa per play#101 / 162 · 38th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct0.10.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#164 / 167 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.60.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team60.5/gm#143 / 167 · 15th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 6 · 83rd pct
Opp110.9/gm#17 / 166 · 90th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#2 / 6 · 83rd pct
Red zone score %
Team33.3%33.3%#163 / 167 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#6 / 6 · 17th pct
Opp63.6%63.6%#6 / 166 · 97th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team1.40.1/gm#127 / 167 · 25th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#2 / 6 · 83rd pct
Opp2.20.2/gm#112 / 166 · 33rd pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#3 / 6 · 67th pct
Yards / drive
Team37.73.1/gm#111 / 167 · 34th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#3 / 6 · 67th pct
Opp57.24.8/gm#165 / 166 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#6 / 6 · 17th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.10.5/gm#135 / 167 · 20th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#3 / 6 · 67th pct
Opp5.80.5/gm#6 / 166 · 97th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team24.0%24.0%#150 / 167 · 11th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#3 / 6 · 67th pct
Opp4.0%4.0%#159 / 166 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 6 · 83rd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success
Team37.7%37.7%#149 / 154 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp63.5%63.5%#168 / 172 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Line yards / carry allowed#151 / 155 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct3.83.8
Stuff rate forced#154 / 155 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct6.8%6.8%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Gardner-Webb · 2025 schedule & results7-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 47% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #188 | #169 | +6.5 | @Western Carolina | W 52–45 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #198 | #49 | +37.5 | @Georgia Tech | L 12–59 57 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #157 | #205 | -3.5 | The Citadel | W 23–13 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #170 | #60 | +30.5 | @Ohio | L 35–52 74 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #155 | #240 | -13.5 | Charleston Southern | W 30–27 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #173 | #205 | -4.5 | @Eastern Illinois | W 21–10 | 4-2 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #158 | #224 | -8 | UT Martin | L 7–37 | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #204 | #207 | -1.5 | @Lindenwood | W 48–20 | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #169 | #76 | +19 | @Tennessee Tech | L 21–27 | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #160 | #200 | -4.5 | Southeast Missouri State | W 27–24 | 6-4 | 4-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #166 | #247 | -15 | @Tennessee State | W 30–14 | 7-4 | 5-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #165 | #235 | -13.5 | Western Illinois | L 24–29 | 7-5 | 5-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Western Illinois | L 24–29 | — | — | — | +0.239 | 38.2% | 153.9% | One-score loss |
| Nov 15 | @Tennessee State | W 30–14 | — | — | — | +0.061 | 36.1% | 113.3% | |
| Nov 8 | Southeast Missouri State | W 27–24 | — | — | — | +0.124 | 30.1% | 183.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 1 | @Tennessee Tech | L 21–27 | — | — | — | +0.060 | 40.5% | 90.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | @Lindenwood | W 48–20 | — | — | — | +0.336 | 60.3% | 108.7% | Best success rate |
| Oct 18 | UT Martin | L 7–37 | — | — | — | +0.061 | 36.1% | 151.6% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 11 | @Eastern Illinois | W 21–10 | — | — | — | +0.179 | 45.8% | 89.2% | |
| Oct 4 | Charleston Southern | W 30–27 | — | — | — | +0.159 | 45.3% | 120.2% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | @Ohio | L 35–52 | — | — | — | +0.385 | 37.7% | 194.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | The Citadel | W 23–13 | — | — | — | +0.237 | 36.8% | 145.0% | |
| Sep 6 | @Georgia Tech | L 12–59 | — | — | — | +0.029 | 33.3% | 134.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | @Western Carolina | W 52–45 | — | — | — | +0.277 | 35.6% | 193.8% | One-score win |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.179 | 39.6% | 139.9% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Gardner-Webb's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.18; 64th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.28 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Gardner-Webb · 2018-present
Strong
57% home win rate vs 31% on the road. margin runs +11.3 better at home. Ernest W. Spangler Stadium seats 9,000, averaging 40% full (3,558 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home20-15Away15-33
Venue texture
73°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 24 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Gardner-Webb
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
104-137
since 2003 · 22 seasons · .431 win rate
HOME
62-46
AWAY
36-84
NEUTRAL
6-7
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big South-OVC Standing · 2025
2nd in the Big South-OVC
Gardner-Webb is 2nd in the Big South-OVC at 5-2. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UT Martin | 6-1 |
| 2 | Gardner-Webb | 5-2 |
| 3 | Lindenwood | 5-2 |
| 4 | Charleston Southern | 4-3 |
| 5 | Southeast Missouri State | 3-4 |
| 6 | Western Illinois | 3-4 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 |
| 8 | Tennessee State | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2022 Big South Championship
Gardner-Webb defeats Liberty to win the Big South championship and earn an FCS playoff berth, the program's first since joining the FCS
Moment of the Year · Gardner-Webb · 2025
Moment of the Year · Gardner-Webb · 2025Won 48-20 at Lindenwood
Week 9 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2023): 0-1
Most recent: 2023 — loss 17-7 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.
2023
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