The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Western Illinois 49%, Lindenwood 64%
Win out 29% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins
Gardner-Webb's chance to win each game left, from our model: Lindenwood 64%, Western Illinois 49%, Tennessee State 93%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Cole Pennington 1,680 · Rushing Christian Vann 420 · Receiving Kory Jones 712 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @Austin Peay | L 17-35 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Pennington 312 · Rush Vann 15 · Rec Jones 102 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Wofford | L 13-17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Pennington 378 · Rush Cormier 32 · Rec Jones 135 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Liberty | L 23-24 137 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Pennington 186 · Rush Young 75 · Rec Jones 51 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | North Carolina Central | W 44-20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Pennington 309 · Rush Young 92 · Rec Jones 131 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Marshall | L 35-36 135 | 1-4 | 0-0 | Pass Pennington 298 · Rush Vann 99 · Rec Adopte 179 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Charleston Southern | W 12-10 | 2-4 | 1-0 | Pass Pennington 197 · Rush Vann 73 · Rec Jones 60 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Eastern Illinois | L 7-21 | 2-5 | 1-1 | Pass Farmer 96 · Rush Farmer 58 · Rec Jones 37 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @UT Martin | L 6-17 | 2-6 | 1-2 | Pass Doolittle 74 · Rush Vann 8 · Rec Jones 49 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Southeast Missouri State | W 34-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | Pass Farmer 209 · Rush Cormier 76 · Rec Jones 87 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Lindenwood | 1:30 pm ET64% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Western Illinois | 2 pm ET49% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Tennessee State | 1:30 pm ET93% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Gardner-Webb, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Southeast Missouri State | W 34-10 | — | — | — | −0.018 | 36.1% | 1.39 | |
| Oct 17 | @UT Martin | L 6-17 | — | — | — | −0.372 | 23.1% | 1.14 | |
| Oct 10 | Eastern Illinois | L 7-21 | — | — | — | −0.477 | 32.4% | 0.46 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Charleston Southern | W 12-10 | — | — | — | −0.127 | 31.3% | 1.18 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | @Marshall | L 35-36 | 458 | 1 | 26:47 | +0.353 | 37.7% | 2.04 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | North Carolina Central | W 44-20 | — | — | — | +0.275 | 43.2% | 1.35 | Best success rate |
| Sep 12 | @Liberty | L 23-24 | 304 | 3 | 30:52 | −0.142 | 32.9% | 1.43 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | @Wofford | L 13-17 | — | — | — | +0.100 | 36.6% | 1.22 | One-score loss |
| Aug 27 | @Austin Peay | L 17-35 | — | — | — | +0.038 | 43.1% | 1.03 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | 381 | 2.0 | −0.041 | 35.2% | 1.25 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Gardner-Webb · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 1%; 4 wins 21%; 5 wins 49%; 6 wins 29%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among OVC teams the same season
Gardner-Webb is 3-6 and hosts Lindenwood next.
Gardner-Webb is 3-6 and hosts Lindenwood next.
Range of outcomes · Gardner-Webb · 2026