Lindenwood · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Lindenwood · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Lindenwood2022
FCS transition
Lindenwood officially joins the FCS and OVC, beginning its college football career at the third level
Lindenwood6-6Hope-Doping·Offseason
Lindenwood is the youngest FCS program, a 2022 transition from Division II in St. Charles, Missouri, building its FCS identity from scratch.
Standard GapA new FCS program with only three years of history at the level, competi…
College football overlooked Lindenwood's transition to the FCS and treated the Lions as a novelty, not a peer, and the fanbase believes the program will earn respect through on-field success.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · vs Charleston Southern · Thu Aug 27 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Lindenwood is the youngest FCS program, a 2022 transition from Division II in St. Charles, Missouri, building its FCS identity from scratch.
The Lions rest in the shade.
Lindenwood · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 6-6
Ceiling 9-3
floor4-8Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base6-6Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling9-3Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Charleston Southern · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Lindenwood
—
The Lions rest in the shade.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Lions."
— Lindenwood fanbase · recurring line
9 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Lindenwood · medium confidence
Growing (53)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 6-6 (50% win rate)58
Volume — 9 effective signal-N49
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#86 / 138 · 38th pct24.8
Pts allowed/game#76 / 138 · 46th pct27.0
All 23 stats
Other
First down pass rate#52 / 215 · 76th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct0.50.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#61 / 167 · 64th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct0.20.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#116 / 143 · 20th pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play#156 / 162 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct-0.1-0.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team20.2/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp80.7/gm#7 / 166 · 96th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team100.0%100.0%#1 / 167 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Opp75.0%75.0%#53 / 166 · 69th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct
Points / drive
Team0.50.0/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp2.00.2/gm#94 / 166 · 44th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct
Yards / drive
Team23.82.0/gm#155 / 167 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp42.63.5/gm#109 / 166 · 35th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct
Plays / drive
Team5.60.5/gm#155 / 167 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp6.40.5/gm#49 / 166 · 71st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team33.3%33.3%#158 / 167 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp8.0%8.0%#144 / 166 · 14th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#133 / 145 · 9th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct-9.3%-9.3%
Standard-downs success
Team38.5%38.5%#146 / 154 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp54.0%54.0%#145 / 172 · 16th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct
Passing-downs success
Team21.4%21.4%#147 / 153 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp32.4%32.4%#99 / 149 · 34th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct
Line yards / carry allowed#154 / 155 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct4.24.2
Stuff rate forced#153 / 155 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct7.8%7.8%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Lindenwood · 2025 schedule & results6-6Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 44% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #192 | #178 | -6.5 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 13–35 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #214 | #150 | +29.5 | @App State | L 13–20 67 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #191 | #215 | -2.5 | @Charleston Southern | W 35–28 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #196 | #198 | +3.5 | Stony Brook | W 30–27 | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #198 | #56 | +22.5 | @Miami (OH) | L 0–38 68 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #207 | #181 | +1.5 | UT Martin | W 30–14 | 3-3 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #187 | #88 | +16.5 | Tennessee Tech | L 28–52 | 3-4 | 2-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #207 | #204 | +1.5 | Gardner-Webb | L 20–48 | 3-5 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #225 | #223 | -3.5 | @Tennessee State | W 35–13 | 4-5 | 3-1 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #202 | #238 | -7.5 | @Western Illinois | L 21–24 | 4-6 | 3-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #207 | #224 | -5.5 | Eastern Illinois | W 42–12 | 5-6 | 4-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #193 | #201 | -1.5 | @Southeast Missouri State | W 30–13 | 6-6 | 5-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Southeast Missouri State | W 30–13 | — | — | — | +0.046 | 36.5% | 121.6% | |
| Nov 15 | Eastern Illinois | W 42–12 | — | — | — | +0.331 | 49.2% | 140.4% | Best success rate |
| Nov 8 | @Western Illinois | L 21–24 | — | — | — | +0.037 | 37.5% | 139.6% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | @Tennessee State | W 35–13 | — | — | — | +0.141 | 47.2% | 114.0% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | Gardner-Webb | L 20–48 | — | — | — | +0.197 | 46.3% | 100.9% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 18 | Tennessee Tech | L 28–52 | — | — | — | +0.214 | 32.9% | 172.7% | |
| Oct 4 | UT Martin | W 30–14 | — | — | — | +0.462 | 40.0% | 188.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | @Miami (OH) | L 0–38 | — | — | — | -0.309 | 26.9% | 92.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Stony Brook | W 30–27 | — | — | — | +0.317 | 39.7% | 163.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 13 | @Charleston Southern | W 35–28 | — | — | — | +0.284 | 45.2% | 131.4% | One-score win |
| Sep 6 | @App State | L 13–20 | — | — | — | -0.068 | 32.3% | 119.5% | One-score loss |
| Aug 28 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 13–35 | — | — | — | +0.232 | 43.3% | 128.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.157 | 39.7% | 134.4% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Lindenwood hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
4th percentile success on standard downs, 1st on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Schedule mirage
How much of Lindenwood's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.16; 59th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.23 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Lindenwood · 2018-present
Elite
65% home win rate vs 43% on the road. margin runs +15.6 better at home. Hunter Stadium seats 7,450, averaging 54% full (4,008 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home17-9Away13-17
Venue texture
71°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Lindenwood
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
31-28
since 2011 · 7 seasons · .525 win rate
HOME
17-9
AWAY
14-18
NEUTRAL
0-1
2010s
2020s
Big South-OVC Standing · 2025
3rd in the Big South-OVC
Lindenwood is 3rd in the Big South-OVC at 5-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UT Martin | 6-1 |
| 2 | Gardner-Webb | 5-2 |
| 3 | Lindenwood | 5-2 |
| 4 | Charleston Southern | 4-3 |
| 5 | Southeast Missouri State | 3-4 |
| 6 | Western Illinois | 3-4 |
| 7 | Eastern Illinois | 2-5 |
| 8 | Tennessee State | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · Lindenwood · 2025
Moment of the Year · Lindenwood · 2025Won 30-14 vs UT Martin
Week 6 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
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