The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Gardner-Webb 36%, Western Illinois 50%
Win out 13% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
Lindenwood's chance to win each game left, from our model: Gardner-Webb 36%, UT Martin 74%, Western Illinois 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Pops Battle 1,434 · Rushing Jared Rhodes 347 · Receiving Jalen Smith 400 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Charleston Southern | W 20-17 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Battle 142 · Rush Rhodes 63 · Rec Smith 47 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | @Stony Brook | L 32-36 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Battle 209 · Rush Rhodes 59 · Rec Krobath 81 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Missouri State | L 14-48 132 | 1-2 | 1-0 | Pass Battle 105 · Rush Battle 63 · Rec Roy 72 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Eastern Michigan | L 3-29 121 | 1-3 | 1-0 | Pass Gregory 46 · Rush Rhodes 48 · Rec Grote 15 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Southeast Missouri State | L 27-38 | 1-4 | 1-1 | Pass Battle 182 · Rush Hall 83 · Rec Smith 55 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Eastern Illinois | W 20-13 | 2-4 | 2-1 | Pass Battle 230 · Rush Rhodes 67 · Rec Krobath 81 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Chicago State | W 44-9 | 3-4 | 2-1 | Pass Battle 292 · Rush Giaimo 120 · Rec Smith 95 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Tennessee State | W 27-0 | 4-4 | 3-1 | Pass Battle 265 · Rush Battle 71 · Rec Smith 69 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Gardner-Webb | 1:30 pm ET36% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @UT Martin | 3 pm ET74% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Western Illinois | 3 pm ET50% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Lindenwood, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Tennessee State | W 27-0 | — | — | — | +0.157 | 42.9% | 1.07 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 24 | Chicago State | W 44-9 | — | — | — | +0.269 | 46.3% | 1.66 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Eastern Illinois | W 20-13 | — | — | — | +0.116 | 38.8% | 1.20 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | Southeast Missouri State | L 27-38 | — | — | — | +0.181 | 25.0% | 2.65 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | @Eastern Michigan | L 3-29 | 191 | 0 | 28:12 | −0.159 | 24.1% | 1.17 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Missouri State | L 14-48 | 223 | 2 | 25:50 | −0.057 | 37.5% | 0.84 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 3 | @Stony Brook | L 32-36 | — | — | — | +0.099 | 38.4% | 1.17 | One-score loss |
| Aug 27 | Charleston Southern | W 20-17 | — | — | — | +0.167 | 29.5% | 1.53 | One-score win |
| Season average (8 games) | 207 | 1.0 | +0.097 | 35.3% | 1.41 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · Lindenwood · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 8%; 5 wins 37%; 6 wins 42%; 7 wins 13%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among OVC teams the same season
Lindenwood is the youngest FCS program, a 2022 transition from Division II in St. Charles, Missouri, building its FCS identity from scratch.
Lindenwood is the youngest FCS program, a 2022 transition from Division II in St. Charles, Missouri, building its FCS identity from scratch.
Range of outcomes · Lindenwood · 2026