Missouri State routs Lindenwood 48-14

Lindenwood1-214
Missouri State1-148Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Plaster Sports Complex, Springfield, Mo. · Crowd 12,138ESPN+

Missouri State routed Lindenwood 48-14.

We had Missouri State favored. It won.

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Missouri State a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Missouri State was a 16.5-point favorite) put it at 91%.

FinalMissouri State 48-14 LindenwoodMissouri State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won48-14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won48-14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost14-48Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost14-48Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Missouri State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Missouri State -16.5), at 90% for Missouri State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Missouri State scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Lindenwood on 2 of its 11.

Missouri State’s drives are teal, Lindenwood’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Missouri State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLindenwood: Missed field goal, from 83 yards out to 22Missed FGMissouri State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 59PuntLindenwood: Punt, from 82 yards out to 84PuntMissouri State: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownLindenwood: Punt, from 75 yards out to 82PuntQ2Missouri State: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownLindenwood: Punt, from 70 yards out to 73PuntMissouri State: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownLindenwood: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntMissouri State: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownLindenwood: Interception, from 75 yards out to 73InterceptionMissouri State: Missed field goal, from 39 yards out to 29Missed FGQ3Lindenwood: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntMissouri State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownLindenwood: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Turned over on downs, from 86 yards out to 57DownsLindenwood: Fumble, from 43 yards out to 32FumbleMissouri State: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownLindenwood: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Missouri State: Turned over on downs, from 69 yards out to 16DownsLindenwood: Punt, from 84 yards out to 79PuntMissouri State: Uncategorized, from 54 yards out to 57Uncategorized

Box score

Missouri State 48, Lindenwood 14

Missouri State covered −16.5 by 17.5. The total, 62, went over 53.5.

LindenwoodMissouri StateTotal yardsLindenwood 223Missouri State 584223584Passing yardsLindenwood 105Missouri State 320105320Rushing yardsLindenwood 118Missouri State 264118264First downsLindenwood 11Missouri State 271127TurnoversLindenwood 2Missouri State 020Time of possessionLindenwood 25:50Missouri State 34:1025:5034:10
Team totalsLindenwoodMissouri State
Total yards223584
Passing8 of 20, 105 yds21 of 25, 320 yds
Rushing34 for 118 yds53 for 264 yds
First downs1127
Third down2 of 137 of 13
Fourth down1 of 11 of 3
Turnovers20
Penalties7 for 84 yds11 for 90 yds
Time of possession25:5034:10

Lindenwood leaders

  • Passing Pops Battle 8 of 20, 105 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Pops Battle 14 for 63 yds; Noah Triplett 8 for 37 yds
  • Receiving Elijah Roy 4 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Drew Krobath 1 for 15 yds, 1 TD

Missouri State leaders

  • Passing Skyler Locklear 17 of 20, 258 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Ramone Green Jr. 12 for 80 yds, 2 TD; Jambres Dubar 15 for 77 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Isaiah Myers 5 for 155 yds, 1 TD; Mekhi Miller 2 for 55 yds

No rain and calm

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the west-northwest, gusts to 9

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Missouri State favoredLindenwood favored100%Win chanceMissouri StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Missouri State favoredLindenwood favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left6:04 p.m.
Lindenwood 0, Missouri State 0 · Missouri State 90% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the northwest · 85°
Locklear 3-yd pass to Dubar
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Springfield, 6.7 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Lindenwood · 1-1

Rated 177th in our preseason ratings, 170th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 32-36 @ Stony Brook #175 of 668

lost by 4 as a 4-point underdog

Lindenwood lost 32-36 at Stony Brook. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 93%.

W 20-17 vs Charleston Southern #219 of 668

won by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite

Lindenwood won 20-17 vs Charleston Southern. Chance to win started at 75%, low 59%, high 98%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Missouri State · 7-6

Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 90th now.

Three straight losses.

L 28-34 @ Arkansas State #139 of 667

lost by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 28-34 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 38%.

L 30-42 vs Louisiana Tech #106 of 667

lost by 12 as a 2.5-point favorite

Missouri State lost 30-42 vs Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 68%, low 4%, high 73%.

L 34-41 @ Kennesaw State #118 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 34-41 at Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 28%, low 2%, high 76%.

W 38-24 vs UTEP #173 of 667

won by 14 as a 7.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 38-24 vs UTEP. Chance to win started at 78%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

W 21-17 @ Liberty #108 of 667

won by 4 as a 7.5-point underdog

Missouri State won 21-17 at Liberty. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 97%.

W 28-21 vs Florida International #140 of 667

won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 28-21 vs Florida International. Chance to win started at 70%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

W 24-17 @ New Mexico State #178 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 24-17 at New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 49%, low 41%, high better than 99%.

W 22-20 @ Middle Tennessee #185 of 667

won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 22-20 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 43%, low 32%, high 88%.

L 22-27 vs Western Kentucky #88 of 667

lost by 5 as a 3.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 22-27 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 46%, low 6%, high 65%.

W 42-10 vs UT Martin #180 of 667

won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 42-10 vs UT Martin. Chance to win started at 88%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

L 10-28 vs SMUTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 18 as a 28.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 10-28 vs SMU. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 30%.

W 21-20 @ Marshall #90 of 667

won by 1 as a 7.5-point underdog

Missouri State won 21-20 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 22%, low 6%, high 77%.

L 13-73 @ USCTop 25 #20 of 667

lost by 60 as a 36.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 13-73 at USC. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Week by week

Missouri State

  • Wk 1Lat Texas A&M0-50

Lindenwood

Wk 1: W 20-17 vs Charleston Southern▲3Charleston SouthernWk 1: L 32-36 at Stony Brook▼4Stony Brook
  • Wk 1Wvs Charleston Southern20-17
  • Wk 1Lat Stony Brook32-36

The series

Missouri State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · Missouri State won the last meeting

  • 2024Missouri State 28-14Missouri State won 28-14 vs Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 93%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Missouri State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Missouri State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 68%Line · 91%LindenwoodMissouri State

Missouri State favored by 16.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Missouri State by 16.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Lindenwood.

opened −19.5now −16.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 52.5now 53.5

Spread: −19.5 → −16.5 · Total: 52.5 → 53.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 81° at kickoff.

Lindenwood at Missouri State · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Plaster Sports Complex, Springfield

  • 81°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 93weather score, Comfortable
  • 2ndbest of the day's 5 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's five kickoff times. At Plaster Sports Complex that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 93 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 87, Mixed
  • 2:30 pm: 70, Rough
  • 3:15 pm: 71, Rough
  • 6 pm: 93, Comfortable (this game)
  • 6:45 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Missouri State is worth +5.7 points (±6.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 77th percentile.

30% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (3-7 home, 4-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.5 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 186 miles to get here.

Where next