Lindenwood at Missouri State
Fan take
Missouri State fans
How they got here
Last two games
Lindenwood · 1-1
Picked #176 in the preseason · now #181.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 32–36 @ Stony Brook #182 of 669
lost by 4 as a 4-point underdog
W 20–17 vs Charleston Southern #199 of 669
won by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Missouri State · 7-6
Picked #94 in the preseason · now #55 — better than expected.
Three straight losses.
L 28–34 @ Arkansas State #140 of 668
lost by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 30–42 vs Louisiana Tech #108 of 668
lost by 12 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 34–41 @ Kennesaw State #116 of 668
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 38–24 vs UTEP #183 of 668
won by 14 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 21–17 @ Liberty #79 of 668
won by 4 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 28–21 vs Florida International #144 of 668
won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 24–17 @ New Mexico State #203 of 668
won by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 22–20 @ Middle Tennessee #180 of 668
won by 2 as a 3-point favorite
L 22–27 vs Western Kentucky #105 of 668
lost by 5 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 42–10 vs UT Martin #190 of 668
won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite
L 10–28 vs SMUTop 25 #18 of 668
lost by 18 as a 28.5-point underdog
W 21–20 @ Marshall #77 of 668
won by 1 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 13–73 @ USCTop 25 #45 of 668
lost by 60 as a 36.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Lindenwood
- Lindenwood needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Lindenwood is still shaking off a 34-point loss.
Missouri State
- Missouri State is coming off a 34-point win.
The series
Missouri State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2024 · Missouri State has won the last 2
- 2026Missouri State 48–14
- 2024Missouri State 28–14
Best players
Missouri State
- Jared Lloyd (LB) · 19 tackles
- Isaiah Myers (WR) · 155 receiving yards
- Jashawn Cooper (LB) · 9 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Missouri State’s chances here.
Home −16.5 · O/U 53.5
Conditions
89°F · 3 mph wind · Fair
Missouri State is worth +4.9 points (±7.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 65th percentile.
25% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (2–6 home, 4–13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 45 games — inside the ±8.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 186 miles to get here.
Lindenwood 14 – Missouri State 48
Called it — picked Missouri State to win.
Recent games
Missouri State
- Wk 1Lat Texas A&M0-50
Lindenwood
- Wk 1Wvs Charleston Southern20-17
- Wk 1Lat Stony Brook32-36
Trajectory
Missouri State beat Lindenwood 48-14 — exactly what the pregame pick had.