3UTEP: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Scotty Walden begins his second season at UTEP with a 2-10 losing record to overcome, as the program's historic identity in El Paso remains unfulfilled despite its rich football legacy.
3Scotty Walden begins his second season at UTEP with a 2-10 losing record to overcome, as the program's historic identity in El Paso remains unfulfilled despite its rich football legacy.
UTEP is the desert outpost on the far western tip of Texas — the most isolated program in major-college football, whose proudest banner is a basketball one, and whose football team keeps reaching for a winning season it can't quite hold.
Miners fans know their program is the one the rest of the country forgets exists — 600 miles from the nearest power program, in a city the maps put in the corner. They'll tell you El Paso shows up any…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Oklahoma · Sat Sep 5 · 00:00 UTC
UTEP is the Conference USA program whose Sun Bowl hosting heritage + Mike Price 2004-2012 era + 1966 NCAA basketball title (as Texas Western) + Don Haskins legacy define what historic-El-Paso-football looks like.
UTEP enters the 2026 season with a balanced portal churn and high continuity, positioning the team for a competitive campaign. The program's recruiting rank of #92 and transfer additions suggest potential for improvement.
Paydirt Pete is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Scotty Walden begins his second season at UTEP with a 2-10 losing record to overcome, as the program's historic identity in El Paso remains unfulfilled despite its rich football legacy.
Kenny Odom produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
Eric Willis III is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Kenny Odom: a depth dna signal screened this season.
Wondame Davis Jr. is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
UTEP: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Malachi Nelson (QB) and Ashaad Hall (EDGE) headline UTEP's top-3 Mountain West portal class — an addition to a 2-10 roster with 100% production returning, not a rescue.
UTEP: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
UTEP enters 2026 — top-quintile returning production contrasts with a 2-10 record, and Scotty Walden's second season must reconcile the program's historic identity with its current FBS tier standing.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
UTEP · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
UTEP: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 21 of 58 board posts (36%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
UTEP signed a top-68 transfer-portal class — 26 additions headlined by Malachi Nelson (QB) from Boise State and Marcell Blocker (CB) from Florida Memorial University. It is a top-3 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 3 of 58 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Opens Sep 5
vs Oklahoma · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 27 commits. National footprint reaching 2 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
121 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
5 games with TV coverage: 3 cable, 1 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 afternoon, 4 primetime
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 55% recovered, vs. ~49% expected.
6 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Deflections without payoff: 13% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.
5 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (34 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2025 only.
The flags have favored them: 91 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 71 committed, 89 yards to the good.
685 penalty yards committed vs. 774 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 4 corners
The split, staged
How UTEP fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
How nice the Sun Bowl is for a G6 stadium. Also being able to see another country from the stands is pretty cool.
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 4 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
~ our readNot enough UTEP chatter this week to read the room.
We read 37 UTEP posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · UTEP · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.02 EPA/play | 9 | 9 | 117 / 211 | 55.5 | 1418 | 6.7 | 13 | 11 | 121.8 | 47.9 | 4.8 | 6.6 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage32.8% 84th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readthe one real worry is the interceptions — bottom 2% of FBS quarterbacks in interception rate, with the accuracy also in the bottom 9% (completion rate). | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.04 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 104 / 190 | 54.7 | 1163 | 6.1 | 8 | 9 | 110.6 | 29.7 | 4.3 | 4.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.6 bottom 24th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate4.7% bottom 4th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Malachi Nelson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.13 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 119 | 569 | 4.8 | 4 | 56 | 14.0 | 13.6 | 24.0 | 12.5 | 5.1% (17/331) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.8 bottom 36th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception6.4 bottom 35th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ashten Emory's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.06 EPA/play | 14 | 10 | 46 | 225 | 4.9 | 1 | 94 | 8.6 | 11.5 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.8 bottom 39th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.2% bottom 22th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hahsaun Wilson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.41 EPA/play | 23 | 9 | 25 | 604 | 24.2 | 6 #62 FBS | 75 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 12.1% (40/331) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. The rare part: he takes the top off a defense — and he finds the end zone, too 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception27.6 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate24.0% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Wondame Davis Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · -0.02 EPA/play | 6 | 11 | 62 | 582 | 9.4 | 6 #62 FBS | 74 | 19.3 | 17.1 | 26.6% (88/331) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume62 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenny Odom's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.18 EPA/play | 19 | 11 | 27 | 290 | 10.7 | 2 | 43 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 12.7% (42/331) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.2 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Eric Willis III's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.45 EPA/play | 89 | 8 | 21 | 232 | 11.0 | 3 | 64 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 6.3% (21/331) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Boom-or-bustWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate14.3% 82th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume21 bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Josh Schuchts's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.12 EPA/play | 15 | 7 | 20 | 227 | 11.3 | 1 | 73 | 5.4 | 5 | 7.9% (26/331) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.4 63th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Trevon Tate's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · -0.01 EPA/play | 88 | 6 | 13 | 206 | 15.8 | 1 | 49 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 7.3% (24/331) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception21.9 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Toric Goins Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 17 | 6 | 10 | 103 | 10.3 | 0 | 34 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 6.6% (22/331) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 7 | 11 | 55 | 19 | 10 | 3.5 | 5 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.2% 64th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kadarion Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 19 | 10 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Ashaad Hall's full player pageTFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 44 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.0% bottom 44th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Shakaun Bowser's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Ashton Coker's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 32 | 9 | 23 | 12 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.9% 84th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Elijah Baldwin's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 10 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Cole Gustafson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyler Scott's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 48 | 10 | 114 | 56 | 58 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume114 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Micah Davey's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 12 | 92 | 35 | 57 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume92 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 40th to 74th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 12 | 11 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.7% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate3.2% bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Donte Thompson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume18 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joshua Rudolph's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 8 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Stratton Shufelt's full player page | |||||||||
| 43 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 41 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 47 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 10 | 60 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Xavier Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 11 | 59 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.8% bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 18 | 12 | 58 | 6 | 1 | 5.5 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume58 98th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Justin Content's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 4 | 9 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume56 97th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Box Safety | — | 10 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 9.5 | 5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume41 bottom 48th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Udoka Ezeani's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 15 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume34 bottom 35th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kode Lowe's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 22 | 10 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 66th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 89th percentile among FBS Ss to the 28th | |||||||
| Press Corner | 16 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Yessman Green's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 9 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Marcell Blocker's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 13 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View TJ Tillman's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 6 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'5" 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ekow Taylor's full player page | |||||||
| 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 11 | 3/6 | 50 | 27/28 | 36 | 42 | |
| 33 | 6 | 6/8 | 75 | 0/0 | 18 | 38 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 6 | 13 | 166 | 12.8 | 0 | 22 | |
| +0.03 EPA/play | 21 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| Deep Threat · +0.41 EPA/play | 23 | 9 | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 0 | 20 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.18 EPA/play | 19 | 11 | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 0 | 23 |
| 13 | 6 | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 | 41 | |
| 5 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | 14 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+17 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #152 | #157 | +5.5 | @Utah State | L 16–28 130 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #160 | #111 | -7.5 | UT Martin | W 42–17 54 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #141 | #3 | +40.5 | @Texas | L 10–27 139 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #114 | #109 | -5.5 | UL Monroe | L 25–31 134 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | #124 | #131 | +3.5 | Louisiana Tech | L 11–30 141 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 9 | #146 | #67 | +2 | Liberty | L 8–19 132 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| 8 | Oct 15 | #163 | #182 | -3.5 | Sam Houston (N) | W 35–17 136 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 10 | Oct 29 | #168 | #107 | +12.5 | @Kennesaw State | L 20–33 144 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #164 | #89 | +1.5 | Jacksonville State | L 27–30 139 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #165 | #140 | +7.5 | @Missouri State | L 24–38 136 | 2-8 | 0-0 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #183 | #207 | -4.5 | New Mexico State | L 31–34 145 | 2-9 | 0-0 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #191 | #166 | +4.5 | @Delaware | L 31–61 148 | 2-10 | 0-0 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @Delaware | L 31–61 | 370 | 6 | 26:55 | +0.043 | 28.9% | 177.9% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 22 | New Mexico State | L 31–34 | 399 | 1 | 23:16 | +0.216 | 39.1% | 152.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 15 | @Missouri State | L 24–38 | 240 | 0 | 22:36 | +0.093 | 36.1% | 115.6% | |
| Nov 8 | Jacksonville State | L 27–30 | 370 | 1 | 29:33 | +0.146 | 35.2% | 187.3% | One-score loss |
| Oct 29 | @Kennesaw State | L 20–33 | 295 | 1 | 30:57 | -0.129 | 27.0% | 142.6% | |
| Oct 15 | Sam Houston | W 35–17 | 411 | 2 | 24:35 | -0.101 | 39.7% | 136.6% | |
| Oct 9 | Liberty | L 8–19 | 167 | 2 | 20:03 | -0.255 | 25.0% | 70.5% | |
| Sep 28 | Louisiana Tech | L 11–30 | 273 | 5 | 27:45 | -0.317 | 27.0% | 116.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 21 | UL Monroe | L 25–31 | 442 | 2 | 28:09 | +0.064 | 28.7% | 189.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 13 | @Texas | L 10–27 | 259 | 2 | 23:13 | -0.069 | 31.0% | 113.5% | |
| Sep 7 | UT Martin | W 42–17 | 472 | 1 | 21:12 | +0.408 | 37.0% | 215.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | @Utah State | L 16–28 | 284 | 1 | 29:23 | +0.053 | 40.0% | 94.6% | Best success rate |
| Season average (12 games) | 332 | 2.0 | +0.013 | 32.9% | 142.8% | ||||
UTEP fields a struggling pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
1st percentile quality, 99th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 12th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 4th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
3rd percentile success on standard downs, 10th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 21st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 15th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.01; 8th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.01. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.23 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
UTEP reads strongest in explosive plays (top 4%) and rushing epa allowed (top 18%); the crux lives in success rate, where UTEP sits at the 1st percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · UTEP
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · UTEP · 2018-present
36% home win rate vs 17% on the road. margin runs +9.7 better at home. Sun Bowl seats 51,500, averaging 35% full (18,069 attendance, 23 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Ashten Emory and Hahsaun Wilson split the carries (105/150 vs 45/150) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Kenny Odom (WR) and Judah Ezinwa (TE) split the targets (86/93 vs 7/93) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Judah Ezinwa produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 7 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, UTEP’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.5% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 181-play sample) — mid-pack, 62 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
75°F average kickoff temp; 3% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 67 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
UTEP's 2014–2025 record is 41-100. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1930 · 93 seasons · .360 win rate
UTEP is the most geographically isolated program in major-college football — a mining-heritage university on the far western corner of Texas, 600 miles from the nearest power program — and it went 2-10 in 2025 before moving into the Mountain West.
El Paso is not a recruiting hub by the sport's conventional map, and UTEP's history reflects that plainly. The program's greatest sports moment came in 1966, when Texas Western — the school's former name — started five Black players and won the NCAA basketball championship, a civil-rights landmark that matters far beyond the scorebook. Football has never matched it. Mike Price's mid-2000s bowl teams — back-to-back bowl seasons, an 8-win year — are the high-water mark for the Miners on the gridiron, and they're twenty-plus years old.
Scotty Walden is entering his third season after a 2-10 (1-7 Conference USA) campaign in 2025, which is a brutal number for any coach but a particular kind of pressure at a program moving into a harder league. 2026 is UTEP's first year in the Mountain West — a genuine step up from Conference USA — and it arrives before the roster has been rebuilt enough to treat the upgrade as an opportunity rather than exposure. The borderland recruiting theory — that El Paso and the Juárez corridor are an untapped talent market the bigger programs ignore — is the long-term bet Walden is making.
The 2026 question is whether Walden survives long enough to test that theory. A program entering a tougher conference off a 2-10 season, under a third-year coach who hasn't yet reached a bowl, needs something to change. Sun Bowl Stadium is carved into the Franklin Mountains hillside. El Paso shows up for it. The question is whether the team on the field gives them a reason to.
UTEP's football identity is borderland grind — a program built to compete on effort and scheme in a market where size and budget are not the advantages. Walden runs a spread offense designed to maximize the limited talent available, with a physical running game that fits the roster profile. The Miners win when the ball-control plan shortens the game and the defense generates chaos; they lose when the talent gap overwhelms the scheme. Moving into the Mountain West tests whether the identity travels.
UTEP 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.01 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 1.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 2-10
UTEP: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Mountain West Standing · 2025
UTEP is 10th of 10 in the Mountain West at 0-0. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 4-1 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 3-1 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 2-2 |
| 4 | Nevada | 2-2 |
| 5 | Air Force | 2-3 |
| 6 | San José State | 2-3 |
| 7 | Wyoming | 1-4 |
| 8 | North Dakota State | 0-0 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · UTEP
Scotty Walden in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1936
Sun Bowl Stadium (built 1963, expanded multiple times to 51,000 capacity) hosts the annual Sun Bowl game — one of CFB's oldest postseason bowls (since 1936). UTEP plays home games here + the Sun Bowl game brings two national teams to El Paso every December. The dual-use venue + the Franklin Mountains backdrop + the desert setting create a unique CFB venue identity.
since 2004
Mike Price's 2004-2012 tenure — after his Alabama firing pre-Tide-coaching-debut — produced the program's modern peak. 2005 8-4 + Houston Bowl appearance + multiple bowl years. Price's pass-offense identity + the recruiting reach into Texas + the El Paso community connection define the era.
since 2000s
'Picks Up' — UTEP fans' hand-sign gesture (two fingers held aloft like a mining pickaxe) — is the Miners' identity marker. The mining-heritage symbol + El Paso mining-town historical roots + the gesture's distinct shape make UTEP fan identity uniquely Texas-borderland.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The first all-Black starting five wins the NCAA basketball title — a civil-rights landmark and UTEP's defining moment
2005
Back-to-back bowl seasons restore football pride to El Paso
Moment of the Year · UTEP · 2025
Week 3 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2021 — loss 31-24 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2024–20242 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Lanear Sampson / co-Joe Pappalardo — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: co-Kelvin Sigler / Kyle Beyer — not yet reflected in on-field data.
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