Scotty Walden

Head coach · UTEP
3rd season · since 2024 · Southern Miss before

At UTEP6-26since 2024 · 1-7 this seasonHot seatBoiling52% · 3rd of 132 jobsLast gameL 7-31at North Dakota State · Oct 31Nextvs Hawai'iSat Nov 7 · 9:30 pm ET · FS1
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

1-7, lost 6 straight, on track for 2-10 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSouthern MissUTEPRegional Programthe building-block levelSouthern Miss when he took over: 18.3 (Regional Program III), its final 2019 readingtook overSouthern Miss, 2020: 1-3, Regional Program IIISouthern Miss, 2020: 1-3, Regional Program III20201-3-2.7UTEP when he took over: 5.0 (Regional Program V), its final 2023 readingtook overUTEP, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program VUTEP, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program V20243-9UTEP, 2025: 2-10, Regional Program V20252-10UTEP, 2026: 1-7, Regional Program VUTEP, 2026: 1-7, Regional Program V20261-7-0.4best: 2020○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 7-31 at North Dakota State Sat Oct 31
  • This season1-7 lost 6 straight
  • Hot seat52% 3rd of 132
  • On track for2-10 regular season
  • Nextvs. Hawai'i Sat Nov 7
  • Stature134th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 46%. Lose and he’s at 51%.

vs. Hawai'i, Sat Nov 7, 9:30 pm ET FS1 · Hawai'i is 2-6 · First meeting between Walden and Timmy Chang as head coaches · UTEP’s chance to win: 19% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf UTEP wins: 46%, 5th of 132Now: 52%If UTEP loses: 51%, 3rd of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If UTEP wins: 46%, 5th of 132
  • Now: 52%
  • If UTEP loses: 51%, 3rd of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

52% chance he’s out after the season · 3rd of 132 FBS head coaches · Boiling

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow45% had they won45% had they wonLoss 51%Win 46%49%44%40%44%50%50%53%53%52%Pre1L at OklahomaL2W vs. Texas SouthernW3L at MichiganL4L vs. Oregon StateL5L at New MexicoL6L vs. NevadaL7L vs. San José StateL8L at North Dakota StateL9Chance to win vs. Hawai'i19%10Chance to win vs. Wyoming17%11Chance to win at Air Force6%12Chance to win at Northern Illinois36%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow45% had they wonLoss 51%Win 46%49%52%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 1-1150%
  2. 2-1047%
  3. 3-940%
  4. 4-832%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in any of his two finished seasons here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 15%, 27th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 19.7%, 27th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 26%, 16th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 26%, 12th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 30%, 12th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 25%, 14th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 25%, 15th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 27%, 15th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 30%, 11th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 31%, 11th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 36%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 35%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 35%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 35%, 8th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 44%, 4th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 50%, 4th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 50%, 4th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 53%, 3rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 53%, 4th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 53%, 3rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 52%, 4th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 52%, 3rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 7▲ 1-6, outscored by 155

Hottest: 2026, week 7 (53%, 4th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-6, outscored by 155

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    1-7, outscored by 179
  • ▲ Hotter
    5-19 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.5M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 1.9× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 1-7 after 8 games
21% pushed out over results · of 159 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,541,667 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 1.9× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 38%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 134th of 138 per play. Defense: 133rd.

Offense, per play134thOffense, points per trip inside the 40137thDefense, per play133rdPass defense134thWorstBest
Offense, per play134th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 40137th of 138Defense, per play133rd of 138Pass defense134th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is UTEP. The other two rows are where UTEP stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Hawai'i (2-6)FS119%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Wyoming (5-3)17%
  3. Fri Nov 20at Air Force (6-2)The CW6%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Northern Illinois (0-8)MW+36%

Percent: UTEP’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

UTEP has held at 134th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 7-31 at North Dakota State2 headlines · 77th of 138One-on-one sit-down with UTEP HC Scotty Walden; Miners travel to Fargo, face North Dakota State KVIA
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlinesUTEP coach Scotty Walden says he is seeing some improvement with the football team but losses keep increasing. Walden is seen here at the Miners' last win against Texas Southern on Sept. 12 at the Sun Bowl. The Lufkin Daily News
  3. Oct 12–18L 11-24 vs. San José State0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 13-30 vs. Nevada1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 7-61 at New Mexico2 headlines · 75th of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 7-33 vs. Oregon State1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from UTEP’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.