Hawai'i at UTEP
Hawai'i (2‑6) travels to UTEP (1‑7), with Hawai'i favored by 9.5. The model gives Hawai'i a 65% shot. Hawai'i’s offense is at the 13th percentile on explosive plays; UTEP’s defense is at the 44th.
How they got here
Last three games
Hawai'i · 2-6
Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 115th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
UTEP · 1-7
Rated 212th in our preseason ratings, 241st now.
Three straight losses.
L 0-51 @ OklahomaTop 25 No. 19 of 668 teams
lost by 51 as a 40.5-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s explosive plays against UTEP, 31 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Hawai'i’s explosive plays against UTEP’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · UTEP defense, 44th
Hawai'i’s success rate against UTEP’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 37th percentile · UTEP defense, 7th
Hawai'i’s passing EPA against UTEP’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 30th percentile · UTEP defense, 6th
What’s at stake
Hawai'i
- Hawai'i is coming off a 35-point win.
UTEP
- Scotty Walden is behind Dana Dimel’s year-3 pace (1-7 vs. 3-5) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
Hawai'i leads the series 18-13
31 meetings since 1948 · UTEP won the last meeting
- 2004UTEP 51-20
- 2003Hawai'i 31-15
- 2002Hawai'i 31-6
- 2001Hawai'i 66-7
- 2000UTEP 39-7
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Hawai'i
The chip · vs the national mediaWarrior fans are sick of being the road trip nobody wants and the time zone nobody watches — a program that has to win twice as convincingly to get half the respect, and knows the mainland forgets it exists by Sunday morning.
What this game touches
The 2008 Sugar Bowl blowout. The unbeaten 2007 dream — Colt Brennan, a No. 10 final ranking, the first non-BCS island team to crash the party — ended 41-10 against Georgia, a national stage that doubled as the doubters' favorite exhibit that the islands couldn't hang.
UTEP
The chip · vs the national mediaMiners fans know their program is the one the rest of the country forgets exists — 600 miles from the nearest power program, in a city the maps put in the corner. They'll tell you El Paso shows up anyway, and that the isolation is a badge, not an excuse.
What this game touches
The football glory that never lasts. UTEP's best football is decades old — Mike Price's 2004-2005 bowl teams the last sustained success — and the recent years have been grim. A 2-10 (1-7 Conference USA) finish in 2025, Scotty Walden's second season, was the latest in a long run of losing for a program that has never been able to keep a winning era going.
Best players
Hawai'i
- Micah Alejado (QB) · 2,186 passing yards
- Jamih Otis (LB) · 53 tackles
- Kona Moore (DB) · 46 tackles
UTEP
- Jayden Wilson (LB) · 44 tackles
- Isaiah Bogerty (LB) · 42 tackles
- Justin Content (CB) · 41 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Micah Alejado (QB) — Hawai'i’s leading passer (2,186 passing yards) takes on UTEP’s pass defense (6th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward UTEP since opening (+11.5 → +9.5).
The betting line, and the fans
UTEP fans are in a better mood than Hawai'i fans (93rd percentile vs 4th among FBS fanbases), even with Hawai'i favored.
- Model · 35%
- Line · 22%
- UTEP fans · 93rd
- Hawai'i fans · 4th
Hawai'i favored by 9.5 · Total 49.5
Hawai'i by 9.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Hawai'i’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
Hawai'i at UTEP · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 9:30 pm ET · FS1 · Sun Bowl.
- 54°feels like
- 4%average rain chance
- 14 mphwind gusts
- 98weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Sun Bowl: noon Saturdays score 84, 3:30 pm 82, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 84, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 82, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
UTEP is worth +4.4 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 55th percentile.
26% at home, 16% on the road against FBS opponents (10-29 home, 8-43 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±4.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 3,224 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
UTEP
- Wk 4Lvs Oregon State7-33
- Wk 5Lat New Mexico7-61
- Wk 6Lvs Nevada13-30
- Wk 7Lvs San José State11-24
- Wk 9Lat North Dakota State7-31
Hawai'i
- Wk 4Lat Wyoming10-27
- Wk 5Lvs San José State16-20
- Wk 6Lat Arizona State12-30
- Wk 7Lvs New Mexico10-21
- Wk 8Wat Northern Illinois56-21
Power rating by week
Hawai'i is rated 8.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward UTEP.
Spread: +11.5 → +9.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.