Arizona State 30-12 Hawai'i (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Hawai'i · Arizona State

Hawai'i1-512

Arizona State3-230Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Ariz. · Crowd 47,931

Arizona State beat Hawai'i 30-12.

We had Arizona State favored. It won.

Next: Hawai'i lost to New Mexico 21-10, Sat Oct 17

Next: Arizona State lost to Texas Tech 53-25, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Boley is just not a starter level qb

Q3 5:18 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arizona State a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (Arizona State was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Arizona State never fell below 89%.

Hawai'i never had better than a 10% chance.

FinalArizona State 30-12 Hawai'iArizona State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:32Hawaii misses a 51-yard field goal after driving to the 2-yard lineDriving the ball to the 2 and kicking a FG from the 35 is the most Hawaii thing everr/CFB game thread
Q3 14:50It started raining during the game.it's raining in temper/CFB game thread
Q3 5:18Arizona State fans criticize Boley and the offense after a missed field goalQuoted at the top of the page.I am quite tired of Boley. I hope we get Rigdon back soon so we can go for a full runningback offense.r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:28Arizona State fans declare Mack the new RB1 after his 16-yard runThere's no way that Keene and Fette are that much worse than Boley Also Mack looking really goodr/CFB game threadSo Mack is RB1r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:38Boley 5-yd pass to HamiltonBoley's downfield passes are getting worser/CFB game thread
Q4 1:55Boley throws touchdown to Harris; fans mock decision to go for twoImagine if Reed Harris had someone not named Cutter Boley throwing him the ball, dude would be a Heisman candidater/CFB game threadBoley is a Reed Harris merchantr/CFB game thread

Arizona State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Arizona State -20.5), at 90% for Arizona State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Arizona State or Hawai'i flair (375 and 50); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Arizona State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Arizona State scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Hawai'i on 3 of its 12.

Arizona State’s drives are teal, Hawai'i’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Boley is just not a starter level qb”

An Arizona State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The third quarter is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

Box score

Arizona State 30, Hawai'i 12

Hawai'i covered +20.5 by 2.5. The total, 42, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Hawai'i	Arizona State
Total yards	316	420
Passing	26 of 51, 252 yds	21 of 31, 189 yds
Rushing	22 for 64 yds	30 for 231 yds
First downs	21	21
Third down	7 of 19	3 of 10
Fourth down	1 of 2	0 of 0
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	6 for 47 yds	5 for 56 yds
Time of possession	31:17	28:43

Hawai'i leaders

Passing Micah Alejado 25 of 49, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Devon Rice 6 for 28 yds; Tama Uiliata 2 for 15 yds
Receiving Kainoa Carvalho 7 for 86 yds; Devin Alves 3 for 60 yds

Arizona State leaders

Passing Cutter Boley 21 of 31, 189 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Cardae Mack 13 for 154 yds, 2 TD; Cutter Boley 8 for 40 yds
Receiving Reed Harris 8 for 91 yds, 2 TD; Omarion Miller 6 for 78 yds

No rain, gusts to 28 mph

79° at kickoff · 0.01 in of rain · wind 7 mph from the southeast, gusts to 28

A 28 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

October game-day temperatures at Mountain America Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:42 left7:36 p.m.

Hawai'i 0, Arizona State 0 · Arizona State 90% to win

no rain · wind 4 mph from the southwest · 79°

Alejado 47-yd pass to Alves

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Phoenix/sky Harbor airport, 4.6 miles away, and Mesa/falcon Field, 12 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Hawai'i · 1-4

Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 115th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 16-20 vs San José State #125 of 668

lost by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 10-27 @ Wyoming #121 of 668

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 29-19 vs New Mexico State #140 of 668

won by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 6-21 vs UNLV #91 of 668

lost by 15 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 27-37 @ Stanford #93 of 668

lost by 10 as a 4.5-point underdog

Last 4 games

Arizona State · 2-2

Rated 54th in our preseason ratings, 65th now, down 11 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 19-55 vs Baylor #29 of 668

lost by 36 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 24-17 @ Kansas #83 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 20-48 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 28 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 70-7 vs Morgan State #223 of 668

won by 63 as a 43.5-point favorite

Week by week

Arizona State

Wk 1Wvs Morgan State70-7
Wk 2Lat Texas A&M20-48
Wk 3Wat Kansas24-17
Wk 5Lvs Baylor19-55

Hawai'i

Wk 1Lat Stanford27-37
Wk 1Lvs UNLV6-21
Wk 2Wvs New Mexico State29-19
Wk 4Lat Wyoming10-27
Wk 5Lvs San José State16-20

Power rating by week

Arizona State is rated 4.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s explosive plays against Arizona State, 45 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Hawai'i’s explosive plays against Arizona State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · Arizona State defense, 58th
Arizona State’s success rate against Hawai'i’s defense
Arizona State offense, 53rd percentile · Hawai'i defense, 16th
Hawai'i’s passing EPA against Arizona State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 14th percentile · Arizona State defense, 45th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Hawai'iArizona State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Arizona State leads the series 5-2

7 meetings since 1954 · Hawai'i has won the last 2

2006 · neutral siteHawai'i 41-24
1979Hawai'i 29-17
1974Arizona State 26-3
1959Arizona State 14-6
1958Arizona State 47-6

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Arizona State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (32nd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Arizona State favored by 20.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Arizona State by 20.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Arizona State is worth +1.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.

61% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (28-18 home, 17-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.8 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,913 miles to get here.

Arizona State beats Hawai'i 30-12