New Mexico State at Hawai'i
Fan take
How they got here
Last two games
New Mexico State · 1-1
Picked #150 in the preseason · now #145 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 51–14 vs Mercyhurst #224 of 669
won by 37 as a 29.5-point favorite
L 17–34 @ Florida State #82 of 669
lost by 17 as a 31-point underdog
Collisions
- New Mexico State's EPA/play (75th pct) vs. Hawai'i's EPA/play allowed (15th pct) -- a 60-point gap.
- New Mexico State's rushing EPA (85th pct) vs. Hawai'i's rushing EPA allowed (15th pct) -- a 70-point gap.
- New Mexico State's explosive plays (85th pct) vs. Hawai'i's explosive plays allowed (35th pct) -- a 50-point gap.
What’s at stake
New Mexico State
- New Mexico State needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 45% to get there with a win here, 22% with a loss.
- A win would be one of New Mexico State’s biggest of the season — a 78-spot gap in the power ratings.
Hawai'i
- Hawai'i needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 42% to get there with a win here, 20% with a loss.
- Hawai'i hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2021.
The series
Hawai'i leads the series 12-1
13 meetings since 1978 · Hawai'i has won the last 2
- 2026Hawai'i 29–19
- 2023Hawai'i 20–17
- 2022New Mexico State 45–26
- 2021Hawai'i 41–21
- 2021Hawai'i 48–34
Best players
New Mexico State
- Nicolas Sessions (S) · 21 tackles
- Tyler King (WR) · 239 receiving yards
- Trey Hedden (QB) · 781 passing yards
Hawai'i
- Kona Moore (DB) · 30 tackles
- Jamih Otis (LB) · 25 tackles
- Micah Alejado (QB) · 794 passing yards
The line, and the room
New Mexico State fans are feeling better about their season (93rd percentile) than Hawai'i fans are (16th) — even with Hawai'i favored here.
Home −7.5 · O/U 50.5
Conditions
78°F · 15 mph wind · Fair
Hawai'i is worth +5.9 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.
60% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (29–19 home, 13–33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.6 at home vs. away over 80 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 3,210 miles to get here.
New Mexico State 19 – Hawai'i 29
Called it — picked Hawai'i to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 06:01 — 8 comments, 4.0× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 03:00–07:30 UTC (386 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Tama Uiliata (Hawai'i): 10 rec · 107 yds
Top 1% catches game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Stat sheet
Recent games
Hawai'i
- Wk 1Lat Stanford27-37
- Wk 1Lvs UNLV6-21
New Mexico State
- Wk 1Lat Florida State17-34
- Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst51-14
Trajectory
Hawai'i handled New Mexico State 29-19, matching the pregame favorite.