UNLV beats Hawai'i 21-6
UNLV beat Hawai'i 21-6. Share this game
We had Hawai'i favored. UNLV won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UNLV a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (UNLV was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.
UNLV won by 15, after dipping to 45% in the first quarter.
Hawai'i never had better than a 55% chance.
UNLV 21-6 Hawai'i
UNLV wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Hawai'i 6-21 UNLVHawai'i lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q1 9:33Arnold 7-yd TD run, UNLV goes ahead 7-0UNLV 61% → 72% (+11)
The play that swung it
- 1Q1 9:33Arnold 7-yd TD run, UNLV goes ahead 7-0Hawai'i 39% → 28% (−11)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UNLV -2.5), at 50% for UNLV (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UNLV scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Hawai'i on 2 of its 11.
UNLV’s drives are teal, Hawai'i’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Hawai'i’s side
Hawai'i’s best moment: Alejado 16-yd pass to Rice (Q1 8:48). It lifted Hawai'i’s win chance by 10 points.
“Jackson Arnold the power back. 😍🥳”
When fans got loud
Firestorm
Fans were loudest in the third quarter.
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Hawai'i’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 5, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6
UNLV covered −2.5 by 12.5. The total, 27, stayed under 55.5.
| Team totals | UNLV | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 364 | 294 |
| Passing | 8 of 18, 116 yds | 17 of 43, 176 yds |
| Rushing | 43 for 248 yds | 33 for 118 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 20 |
| Third down | 7 of 15 | 9 of 20 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 59 yds | 6 for 59 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:55 | 32:05 |
UNLV leaders
- Passing Jackson Arnold 8 of 18, 116 yds
- Rushing Jai'Den Thomas 20 for 143 yds, 1 TD; Jackson Arnold 16 for 89 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Keyan Burnett 3 for 55 yds; Kayden McGee 1 for 44 yds
Hawai'i leaders
- Passing Micah Alejado 17 of 41, 176 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Devon Rice 15 for 73 yds; Sitani Mikaele 9 for 39 yds
- Receiving Devon Rice 4 for 27 yds; Kainoa Carvalho 1 for 26 yds
No rain through the game
83° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Honolulu airport, 6.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Ninth Island Showdown — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
UNLV · 10-4
Rated 91st in our preseason ratings, 91st now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 10-17 @ Ohio #66 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 21-38 @ Boise StateTop 25 #45 of 667
lost by 17 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 42-17 @ Nevada #184 of 667
won by 25 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 38-10 vs Hawai'i #123 of 667
won by 28 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 29-26 vs Utah State #105 of 667
won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 42-10 @ Colorado State #186 of 667
won by 32 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 35-40 vs New Mexico #90 of 667
lost by 5 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 31-56 @ Boise StateTop 25 #35 of 667
lost by 25 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 51-48 vs Air Force #138 of 667
won by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 31-17 @ Wyoming #130 of 667
won by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 41-38 @ Miami (OH) #79 of 667
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 30-23 vs UCLA #46 of 667
won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38-21 @ Sam Houston #130 of 667
won by 17 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 38-31 vs Idaho State #213 of 667
won by 7 as a 30.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Hawai'i · 9-4
Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 59th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 35-31 vs California #83 of 667
won by 4 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 27-7 vs Wyoming #165 of 667
won by 20 as an 8.5-point favorite
L 10-38 @ UNLV #63 of 667
lost by 28 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 38-6 vs San Diego State #73 of 667
won by 32 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 38-45 @ San José State #107 of 667
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 31-19 @ Colorado State #118 of 667
won by 12 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 44-26 vs Utah State #119 of 667
won by 18 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 44-35 @ Air Force #154 of 667
won by 9 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 21-23 vs Fresno State #80 of 667
lost by 2 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 23-3 vs Portland State #235 of 667
won by 20 as a 36.5-point favorite
W 37-20 vs Sam Houston #135 of 667
won by 17 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 6-40 @ ArizonaTop 25 #82 of 667
lost by 34 as a 15.5-point underdog
W 23-20 vs Stanford #85 of 667
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
Week by week
Hawai'i
- Wk 1Lat Stanford27-37
UNLV
- Wk 1Lvs Memphis21-27
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s passing EPA against UNLV, 69 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Hawai'i’s passing EPA against UNLV’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 14th percentile · UNLV defense, 83rd
Hawai'i’s EPA/play against UNLV’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · UNLV defense, 45th
Hawai'i’s explosive plays against UNLV’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · UNLV defense, 41st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
The series is tied 16-16
32 meetings since 1974 · UNLV has won the last 3
- 2025UNLV 38-10
- 2024UNLV 29-27
- 2023UNLV 44-20
- 2022Hawai'i 31-25
- 2021UNLV 27-13
Each line is Hawai'i’s chance to win through that meeting. Hawai'i is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Hawai'i fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (75th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 72%
- Line · 42%
- Hawai'i fans · 75th
- UNLV fans · 65th
UNLV favored by 2.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
UNLV by 2.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward UNLV.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 58.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Hawai'i is worth +5.9 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 80th percentile.
58% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 13-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.5 at home vs. away over 105 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 2,753 miles to get here.