Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

Mountain West

The Coaching Factory

If New Mexico (+83 coaching premium), Fresno State (+65), and San Diego State (+46) are all overperforming — what happens when one of them cracks the CFP field? The Mountain West's 2026 story is about whether Group of Five coaching can break through.

Mountain West is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#8overall

#8in FBS

+4.0RR50

+8.1upper strength

10teams

0top-25 teams

Mountain West, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — last season final records.

Team Power Record RR50

UNLV

0-0 +8.6

North Dakota State

0-0 +7.8

Hawai'i

0-0 +6.5

New Mexico

0-0 +5.5

Air Force

0-0 +4.2

Wyoming

0-0 +2.2

San José State

0-0 +0.5

Nevada

0-0 -1.5

Northern Illinois

0-0 -2.6

UTEP

0-0 -2.7

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

The Coaching Factory

The Mountain West doesn't have the recruiting budgets of the Power Four, but it has something else: almost every program in the conference plays better than its recruiting class should allow. New Mexico went 9-4 with the 138th-ranked recruiting class. Fresno State finished at SP+ #38 despite recruiting at #103. San Diego State sits at SP+ #32 with a #78 class. The Mountain West is the coaching premium capital of FBS.

0 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. The gap between the top and bottom is narrow — a sign of genuine parity.

The question heading into 2026.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The Premium Story

New Mexico Went 9-4 With the 138th Recruiting Class

New Mexico's coaching premium is +83 — the gap between their #138 recruiting rank and their #55 SP+ rating. That's one of the largest gaps in FBS. A program that spent most of the last decade finishing under .500 went 9-4 in 2025 and looked competitive against programs with three times the recruiting budget. Whether this is sustainable — or whether the Mountain West starts to lose players to the portal once national attention arrives — is the most interesting story in the conference.

Why it matters →

The Conference Leader

San Diego State Holds the Mountain West's Best SP+ Rating

San Diego State holds the Mountain West's highest SP+ ranking (#32) entering 2026, with a recruiting class ranked #78 nationally and a +46 coaching premium. The Aztecs went 9-4 in 2025 and are built around the same run-first, defense-first model that made them hard to beat for a decade. In a conference where most programs overperform, San Diego State is the one most likely to make noise in the CFP access conversation.

Why it matters →

The Other Side

Nevada and Colorado State Are Recruiting Better Than They're Playing

Not every Mountain West program runs the coaching surplus. Nevada went 3-9 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #88 nationally — a -29 coaching gap that's the conference's worst. Colorado State finished 2-10 with a #106 class, a -21 gap. Wyoming went 4-8 despite recruiting at #89. These programs are the ceiling argument for what the conference can produce — and the floor argument for what happens when coaching doesn't amplify the limited recruiting budget that every Mountain West school starts with.

Active arcs our read

Developing1wk ago

Former Northern Illinois football coach Joe Novak dies at 81

How will Novak's legacy impact the future of Northern Illinois football?

Northern Illinois

Developing4wk ago

Air Force Removes Athletic Director Nathan Pine After Seven Years

What will be the impact of Nathan Pine's departure on Air Force athletics?

Air Force

Developing6wk ago

UTEP fans choose kickoff time for San Jose State game

How will the chosen kickoff time impact fan attendance and team performance?

UTEP

Developing7wk ago

Donovan McNabb Jr. commits to UNLV to play wide receiver

How will Donovan McNabb Jr. contribute to the UNLV football program?

UNLV

Developing2mo ago

Air Force Academy celebrates graduation of Class of 2026

What achievements will the graduating cadets bring to their future roles?

Air Force

All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 295 mentions

16% positive 66% neutral 18% negative

UNLV

→ neutral

San José State

↓ negative

New Mexico

↓ negative

Hawai'i

→ neutral

Wyoming

↑ positive

UTEP

→ neutral

Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Mountain West program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 67th percentile.

Bullish+28

Bullish+16

Bullish-15

Leaning-2

Leaning+9

Leaning+13

Mixed-8

Mixed-4

Souring-39

Souring-53

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Mountain West teams, 10 programs.

Standings

2026 final — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#	Team	Record	RR50	Resume
1	UNLV Regional Program II#93	0-0	+8.6	+83.0
2	North Dakota State National Program II#51	0-0	+7.8	+81.3
3	Hawai'i Regional Program IV#108	0-0	+6.5	+75.8
4	New Mexico Regional Program V#128	0-0	+5.5	+72.3
5	Air Force Regional Program II#89	0-0	+4.2	+70.6
6	Wyoming Regional Program III#98	0-0	+2.2	+63.7
7	San José State Regional Program IV#112	0-0	+0.5	+54.7
8	Nevada Regional Program IV#119	0-0	-1.5	+45.0
9	Northern Illinois Regional Program IV#107	0-0	-2.6	+37.0
10	UTEP Regional Program V#134	0-0	-2.7	+36.0

Projected Standings · Mountain West · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	UNLV	5–3	+5.7	5.0	2	13	37	66	87	97	✓	✓
2	North Dakota State	5–3	+5.0	4.9	2	11	34	63	86	97	✓	✓
Challengers
3	Hawai'i	5–3	+3.7	4.8	2	10	31	59	83	95	99	✓
4	New Mexico	4–4	+2.6	4.4	1	6	22	48	74	92	98	✓
5	Air Force	4–4	+1.4	4.4	1	6	21	46	73	91	98	✓
The Field
6	Wyoming	4–4	-0.6	3.8		2	10	30	58	82	96	✓
7	San José State	4–4	-2.3	3.6		2	9	26	53	79	94	99
8	Nevada	3–5	-4.3	3.1		1	4	15	38	67	89	98
Rebuilding
9	UTEP	3–5	-5.6	3.0			3	13	35	64	87	98
10	Northern Illinois	3–5	-5.5	3.0			3	13	34	63	87	98

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2025 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
UNLV	+0.31	46.9%	+1.37	-0.21	65.6	46.2%	Big-play offense
North Dakota State	+0.36	48.6%	+1.38	+0.02	0.0	0.0%	Grind-it-out
Hawai'i	+0.16	40.9%	+1.34	-0.17	69.6	59.7%	Balanced
New Mexico	+0.19	41.8%	+1.32	-0.12	62.6	43.0%	Balanced
Air Force	+0.29	47.8%	+1.22	-0.41	68.1	20.1%	Defense is the problem
Wyoming	+0.04	37.4%	+1.20	-0.08	64.4	49.7%	Can't sustain drives
San José State	+0.18	43.7%	+1.23	-0.20	66.7	60.9%	Balanced
Nevada	+0.03	36.9%	+1.21	-0.19	60.2	42.6%	Can't sustain drives
Northern Illinois	+0.04	34.3%	+1.29	-0.18	61.8	32.9%	Can't sustain drives
UTEP	+0.01	32.9%	+1.43	-0.10	65.4	52.2%	Can't sustain drives

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2025 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Mountain West's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Aamaris BrownCB	UNLV	#1 of 364
2	Simeon HarrisCB	Fresno State	#6 of 364
3	John MillerLB	Utah State	#7 of 583
4	Lemondre JoeCB	Colorado State	#8 of 364
5	Danny ScuderoWR	San José State	#8 of 485
6	Brevin HamblinS	Utah State	#11 of 544
7	Ben FlorentineIDL	Wyoming	#13 of 330
8	Jeremiah EarbyCB	Boise State	#16 of 364
9	Noah AvingerCB	Utah State	#17 of 364
10	Tyree MorrisIDL	Utah State	#15 of 330

Where Mountain West stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC

+11.4

2 B10 Big Ten

+10.1

3 IND FBS Independents

+9.4

4 B12 Big 12

+8.3

5 ACC ACC

+8.2

6 P12 Pac-12

+5.3

7 AAC American Athletic

+5.3

8 MW Mountain West

+4.0

9 SB Sun Belt

+3.7

10 CUSA Conference USA

+3.6

Mountain West title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	UNLV	+240
2	New Mexico	+220
3	North Dakota State	+280
4	Hawai'i	+400
5	Air Force	+500
6	San Jose State	+1800
7	Wyoming	+1500
8	Nevada	+1800
9	Northern Illinois	+5000
10	UTEP	+5500