3identity shift
New Mexico shifts fanbase identity, redefining program.
Jason Eck begins his tenure with a 9-4 record, signaling a shift in New Mexico's identity as the program navigates its next phase under his leadership.
New Mexico9-4Latest
No consensus around New Mexico right now — the fanbase is genuinely divided.
belief cooled ↓ 2.2vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
50/100 · 43 mentions
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
17% cite a stat · 8% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 29 pts
~ our readThe model
#83
CFB Zeitgeist · -0.7
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
New Mexico is the program that hadn't seen a bowl since 2016 and was picked dead last — then went nine wins, tied for first, and won Mountain West Coach of the Year in Jason Eck's very first season.
Standard GapA nine-win 2025 and a Mountain West title chase against a decade of losi…
Fans relish that a team the preseason poll buried at 11th of 12 tied for first and earned Coach of the Year — and they want every analyst who wrote the Lobos off to explain how they missed it.
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - New Mexico
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production12%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#131 nationally247 composite 378.8
Portal Additions15Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses14Primary pressure: TE
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#87Depth class
TEin 2 - Joey Olsenout 4 - Dorian ThomasStarter Risk
current room: 241 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 2 - Ormanie Arnoldout 0Need Filled
Kin 2 - Nick Romeroout 0Need Filled
DLin 2 - Jayden Marableout 0Need Filled
current room: 242 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 1 - Troy Omeireout 1 - Isaiah BlairUpgrade
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Pin 1 - Michael Kernout 1 - Daniel HughesEven
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs Central Michigan · Sun Sep 6 · 02:00 UTC
The experience
New Mexico is the Mountain West program whose Rocky Long defensive era + University Stadium altitude (5,300 ft) + Jason Eck era under construction define what Albuquerque football survival looks like.
Offense: SolidTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Solid
New Mexico's 2026 season hinges on roster turnover and transfer impact
The team faces a high volatility score with only 12% returning production, but incoming transfers could provide key depth.
- Roster reloadNew Mexico has 15 incoming transfers and 14 outgoing transfers, indicating a balanced portal churn.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Lobo Louie is patient at the pack.
New Mexico · the story right now
11 storylines developing
What New Mexico's transfer portal class is really about
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
portal2025-05-25~readnew
Luke Moga (QB) arrives as New Mexico's first-year coach Jason Eck rebuilds nearly everything at once after just 12% production returns from a 9-4 season.
what happenedNew Mexico signed a top-55 transfer-portal class — 35 additions headlined by Cole Welliver (QB) from UConn and Jack Layne (QB) from Idaho. ✓ fact
the contexta top-2 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-07-14~readnew
Jason Eck begins his tenure with a 9-4 record and a #131 talent rank, raising questions about sustaining success in a conference where New Mexico's title odds have softened.
what happenedNew Mexico Mountain West championship odds lengthened — implied probability moved from 31.2% to 27.4% (-3.9pp) between Jul 13 and Jul 14, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact
the contextwin total down 0.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
New Mexico leaped 43 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and bottom-quintile returning production is the story Jason Eck has to answer in Mountain West this year.
what happenedNew Mexico enters 2026 rated No. 73 in 2025 SP+ (+0.9), up 43 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Eck begins his tenure with 12% production returning and #131 talent, inheriting Gonzales' 9-4 wreckage in an era where altitude and defense define Albuquerque's survival.
what happenedJason Eck took over as New Mexico's head coach, replacing Bronco Mendenhall. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 4-year head coach Danny Gonzales (11-32)
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Jason Eck begins his tenure with a 9-4 record, signaling a shift in New Mexico's identity as the program navigates its next phase under his leadership.
what happenedNew Mexico: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Dorian Thomas produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
Keagan Johnson sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Damon Bankston: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
DJ McKinney: a closer signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Scottre Humphrey: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
New Mexico: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredNew Mexico's head-coaching hire held for another season.
ReplacedNew Mexico's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downNew Mexico's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · New Mexico
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Jaxton Eck granted fifth year of eligibility
Eck's decision to stay plugs a linebacker room that couldn't afford attrition — one NFL departure plus a #86 class means every returning starter counts double heading into 2026.
- Recruiting
Bryson Bloom commits to New Mexico
Alamogordo product stays home to fill a TE room under real pressure — class ranked 86th nationally, but local retention like this is how depth builds before it shows up in a standings column.
- News
Mountain West title odds: +220 → +265 (▼3.9pp implied)
Mountain west title odds dropped 3.9pp without an obvious public catalyst.
Transfer portal snapshot
+7.9 net portal points
(raw ledger: +10.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+7.0
need not filled
K+6.3
need not filled
TE-4.8
starter risk
DL+4.3
need not filled
OT-3.5
low confidence
WR+2.7
P+2.5
S-2.5
LS-2.0
low confidence
LB+1.5
RB-1.0
low confidence
IOL-0.5
QB+0.1
EDGE+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Cade Mitchell
#966 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
DJ Darling
#1474 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Brody Litton
#1523 national
Fan vs. market↓
26th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
(60th among FBS)
Market 34pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#74 in field+80000
Mountain West title#2 in market+220
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
New Mexico · Next-Season Outcome Band
New Mexico · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 7-6
Ceiling 9-4
floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · New Mexico · Transfer portal Confidence
New Mexico went deep in the portal this cycle. Portal volume is the start of the story, not the verdict.
New Mexico signed a top-55 transfer-portal class — 35 additions headlined by Cole Welliver (QB) from UConn and Jack Layne (QB) from Idaho. It is a top-2 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 2% volume
Developing3 new this week
todayUNM QB Jack Layne sidelined with elbow injury — Albuquerque Journal
2 days agoPortales kicks off football with midnight workout — The Eastern New Mexico News
5 days agoUCLA guard Donovan Dent plans to enter Transfer Portal with do not contact tag — news
last weekJaxton Eck granted fifth year of eligibility — Official
3 weeks agoMountain West title odds: +220 → +265 (▼3.9pp implied)
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Cole Welliver QB · UConn
Jack Layne QB · Idaho
“UNM QB Jack Layne sidelined with elbow injury” — Albuquerque Journal · 2026-08-06
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Luke Moga (QB) arrives as New Mexico's first-year coach Jason Eck rebuilds nearly everything at once after just 12% production returns from a 9-4 season.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: New Mexico signed a top-55 transfer-portal class — 35 additions headlined by Cole Welliver (QB) from UConn and Jack Layne (QB) from Idaho — a top-2 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“After offseason surgery, UNM’s Jack Layne ‘feeling good’ with another quarterback competition looming”
Albuquerque Journal · 2026-07-23 · read ↗
“Ohio State INF transfer Lee Ellis commits to Kentucky”
On3 CFB · 2026-07-17 · read ↗
“New Mexico’s Eck, Layne Relive Upset Win in Laramie”
7220sports.com · 2026-07-15 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards2 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 2 of 93 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"If anyone is in need of a housing i am trying to transfer this as soon as possible. Dm if interested"
r/unm ~ fan take
"Hello! My partner and I are looking for a one bedroom apt for the 2026-2027 year! I graduated with my bachelor’s, while my partner will be starting his masters program at UNM this"
r/unm ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · New Mexico · Season outlook Confidence
One of the biggest jumps in the country. New Mexico has to prove the model right.
New Mexico enters 2026 rated No. 73 in 2025 SP+ (+0.9), up 43 spots from 2024. It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 26% volume
The saga so far3 weeks old
last weekJaxton Eck granted fifth year of eligibility — Official
3 weeks agoMountain West title odds: +220 → +265 (▼3.9pp implied)
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
New Mexico leaped 43 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and bottom-quintile returning production is the story Jason Eck has to answer in Mountain West this year.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: New Mexico enters 2026 rated No. 73 in 2025 SP+ (+0.9), up 43 spots from 2024 — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Talented 2028 crop of recruits in Colorado and New Mexico being ” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Talented 2028 crop of recruits in Colorado and New Mexico being pursued nationally”
On3 · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Las Cruces LB Denton Walter commits to UNM”
Albuquerque Journal · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Las Cruces All-State LB Denton Walter commits to New Mexico - Las Cruces Sun-News”
news · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Impactful Journeys: Faith, Family and Football. The Rise of New Mexico's No. 1 Class of 2029 Prospect, Kingston Lee”
Impactful Journeys · on3.com · 2026-08-01 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards26% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 24 of 93 board posts (26%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I know these types of questions get asked a lot… But I’ve been having issues with the parking account thing, and I recently resolved it. However, it seems it’s too late and there’s"
r/unm ~ fan take
"Hi! I’m starting UNM’s 16-month ABSN program soon and I’m honestly getting pretty nervous about the workload. I’ve heard it’s really intense, but I’d love to hear from people who h"
r/unm ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 6
vs Central Michigan · at home
Season line7.5 winsover -190
SolidExplosive, big-playSolid
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
New Mexico State
Bullish+27
Rio Grande Rivalry
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
31
CA · 8TX · 7AZ · 5IL · 3NM · 2KS · 1MS · 1NV · 1+3 more
CA leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
87 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] New Mexico Defeats Idaho State 32-22
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
8 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 5 cable, 1 conference network
Kickoff windows: 2 afternoon, 6 primetime
Fumble luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 19% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
3 of 16 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 16 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Cashing in at a normal clip: 18% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.
9 interceptions of 51 disrupted passes (42 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
The flags have favored them: 95 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 75 committed, 199 yards to the good.
630 penalty yards committed vs. 829 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on New Mexico
50
Δ -2.2 vs last wk
43
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Lobos"
— New Mexico fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence3 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 5 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
UUnderdog Dynasty
MMountain West Connection
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
The split, staged
Warmest corner+0.00
Die-hards
most bought-in cohort our read
vs
Coldest corner−0.00
National take
coolest cohort our read
How New Mexico fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
Tulane's first 11 drives: interception, downs, field goal, punt, punt, end of half, punt, downs, downs, fumble, downs. That's how you end up with only 10 points despite having over 400 yards of total offense.
▲ 2.8k ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 5 corners of the fanbase
skeptical
buying in
Die-hards+0.25
National take+0.18
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
179 mentions · 7 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readNew Mexico fans are leaning negative, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 125 posts from New Mexico fans this week.
Season storylines
Week 1
“That could have gone way worse. And we had that sweet trick play touchdown. I like Jason Eck.”— r/CFB
Week 10
Week 5
“For awhile, New Mexico would always bring in local guys instead of transfers. That’s probably why this team just wasn’t as good in past years.”— r/CFB
Week 6
Week 9
“Someone open a GoFundMe to keep Eck as Coach!! We’re gonna go bowling! AND still have a shot at the MWC Title”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial7 posts
News & campus coverage3 posts
Fanbase Health Index · New Mexico · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · New Mexico · high confidenceGrowing (64)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-4 (69% win rate)74
Volume — 492 effective signal-N84
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.03 — quiet35
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#69 / 138 · 51st pct27.1
Pts allowed/game#41 / 138 · 71st pct22.3
Total yards/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct357.2
Rush yards/gm#73 / 136 · 47th pct152.4
Pass yards/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct204.8
Yards allowed/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct343.2
Rush yds allowed/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct113.5
Sacks#14 / 136 · 90th pct36
Interceptions#68 / 136 · 51st pct9
3rd-down conv#72 / 136 · 48th pct39.4%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team4643357.2/gm5.70/play#82 / 136 · 40th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp4462343.2/gm5.30/play#44 / 136 · 68th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush yards
Team1981152.4/gm2.43/play#73 / 136 · 47th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp1476113.5/gm1.75/play#22 / 136 · 85th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush carries
Team46435.7/gm#60 / 136 · 57th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp43033.1/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush TDs
Team221.7/gm#59 / 136 · 57th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp141.1/gm#34 / 136 · 76th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Net pass yards
Team2662204.8/gm3.27/play#83 / 136 · 40th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp2986229.7/gm3.55/play#96 / 136 · 30th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Pass attempts
Team35026.9/gm#102 / 136 · 26th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp41231.7/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Completions
Team22717.5/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp28221.7/gm#120 / 136 · 12th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Pass TDs
Team171.3/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp191.5/gm#74 / 136 · 46th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Passer rating
Team139.6139.6#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp139.7139.7#101 / 136 · 26th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Interceptions thrown
Team100.8/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp90.7/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Sacks (def)
Team362.8/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp342.6/gm#119 / 136 · 13th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Tackles for loss
Team775.9/gm#43 / 136 · 69th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp644.9/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
First downs
Team25219.4/gm#77 / 136 · 44th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp24819.1/gm#60 / 136 · 57th pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down conv
Team655.0/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp725.5/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
3rd-down att
Team16512.7/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp17913.8/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
4th-down conv
Team211.6/gm#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp171.3/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
4th-down att
Team322.5/gm#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp332.5/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Time of possession
Team390:4830:04/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp389:1229:56/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#1 / 135 · 100th pct18/19 (94.7%)
Extra points36/36
Punting#29 / 136 · 79th pct45.0 avg · 39 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team231.8/gm#8 / 136 · 95th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp171.3/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Fumbles lost
Team131.0/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp80.6/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
INT return TDs
Team00.0/gm#76 / 135 · 44th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
INT return yards
Team997.6/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp443.4/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Punt ret yds
Team554.2/gm#120 / 136 · 12th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp594.5/gm#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#14 / 135 · 90th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team60846.8/gm#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp33926.1/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team20.2/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team63048.5/gm#87 / 136 · 37th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp82963.8/gm#117 / 136 · 15th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Other
Fourth down go rate#16 / 138 · 89th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct0.50.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#33 / 136 · 76th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct80.6/gm
H1 epa per play#36 / 162 · 78th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct0.30.0/gm
Kick returns#44 / 136 · 68th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct241.8/gm
Kick ret (opp)#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct181.4/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#53 / 143 · 64th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct0.10.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#54 / 167 · 68th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct0.10.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#64 / 136 · 54th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct100.8/gm
Interceptions (def)#68 / 136 · 51st pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct90.7/gm
Punt ret (opp)#73 / 136 · 47th pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct151.2/gm
Penalties#73 / 136 · 47th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct755.8/gm
H2 epa per play#76 / 142 · 47th pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct0.20.0/gm
Punt returns#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct131.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#117 / 154 · 25th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct0.30.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#119 / 136 · 13th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct957.3/gm
First down pass rate#123 / 215 · 43rd pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct0.40.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#135 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct131.0/gm
Recruiting rating#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct10.30.8/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off39.4%#72 / 136 · 48th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Def40.2%#81 / 136 · 41st pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
4th-down conversion
Off65.6%#22 / 136 · 85th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def51.5%#60 / 136 · 57th pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Turnover margin#108 / 136 · 21st pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct-0.46/gm
Sack rate (def)#20 / 136 · 86th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct8.7%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team443.4/gm#68 / 167 · 60th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp362.8/gm#63 / 166 · 63rd pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Red zone score %
Team77.3%77.3%#88 / 167 · 48th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp80.6%80.6%#100 / 166 · 40th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Points / drive
Team2.30.2/gm#48 / 167 · 72nd pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp1.90.1/gm#72 / 166 · 57th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / drive
Team42.43.3/gm#62 / 167 · 63rd pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp42.93.3/gm#114 / 166 · 32nd pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct#7 / 9 · 33rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Plays / drive
Team6.70.5/gm#59 / 167 · 65th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp7.20.6/gm#156 / 166 · 7th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team8.2%8.2%#26 / 167 · 85th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp13.0%13.0%#95 / 166 · 43rd pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#47 / 145 · 68th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct+1.9%+1.9%
Havoc rate
Team17.5%17.5%#35 / 140 · 76th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Opp13.9%13.9%#48 / 140 · 66th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Standard-downs success
Team46.5%46.5%#93 / 154 · 40th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Opp46.9%46.9%#67 / 172 · 62nd pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Passing-downs success
Team32.2%32.2%#61 / 153 · 61st pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#5 / 9 · 56th pct
Opp29.2%29.2%#57 / 149 · 62nd pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.13.1#44 / 143 · 70th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Opp2.62.6#20 / 155 · 88th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct
Stuff rate
Team14.8%14.8%#18 / 143 · 88th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct
Opp22.4%22.4%#23 / 155 · 86th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct
Power success rate
Team76.2%76.2%#33 / 137 · 77th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct
Opp85.4%85.4%#132 / 141 · 7th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off64.9%#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#2 / 9 · 89th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def68.4%#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.6#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Def7.2#76 / 136 · 45th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off11.7#62 / 136 · 55th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def10.6#27 / 136 · 81st pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / carry#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct4.3
Yards / play#68 / 136 · 51st pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct5.70
Scoring margin#58 / 136 · 58th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#3 / 9 · 78th pct#2 / 11 · 91st pct+4.8/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.23 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 213 / 327 | 65.1 | 2486 #63 FBS | 7.6 | 13 | 10 | 136.0 | 51.0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View Jack Layne's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.28 EPA/play | 13 | 9 | 11 / 17 | 64.7 | 96 | 5.6 | 2 | 0 | 151.0 | 73.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.29 EPA/play | 1 | 13 | 114 | 635 | 5.6 | 5 | 54 | 13.8 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 10.0% (30/301) | |
Yards by week → Satellite Back· Return threatDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share21.4% 93th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.8 94th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readthe ball security is the one real worry — 2.07 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 111 | 464 | 4.2 | 7 | 54 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 5.6% (17/301) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry3.7 bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.7 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View DJ McKinney's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.20 EPA/play | 22 | 10 | 77 | 349 | 4.5 | 5 | 61 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 10 | 11.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Scottre Humphrey's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.42 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 59 | 754 | 12.8 | 3 | 80 | 26.1 | 22.6 | 28.9% (87/301) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume59 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate5.1% bottom 28th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 41st percentile among FBS WRs to the 84th | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.38 EPA/play | 7 | 13 | 56 | 560 | 10 | 4 | 34 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 24.6% (74/301) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.3 bottom 43th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume56 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dorian Thomas's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.66 EPA/play | 88 | 9 | 20 | 253 | 12.7 | 3 | 45 | 3 | 1.9 | 7.0% (21/301) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.2 82th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate15.0% 77th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cade Keith's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.87 EPA/play | 14 | 8 | 15 | 199 | 13.3 | 1 | 42 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 6.3% (19/301) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception18.1 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Shawn Miller's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | — | 8 | 9 | 112 | 12.4 | 0 | 43 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 6.0% (18/301) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.43 EPA/play | 17 | 5 | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 0 | 25 | 7.8 | 7.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 6 | 13 | 128 | 65 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.1% bottom 16th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaxton Eck's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 1 | 12 | 52 | 29 | 15 #21 FBS | 9 #20 FBS | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.8% 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 16 | 11 | 52 | 26 | 6.5 | 2 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 20 | 11 | 38 | 18 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.2% bottom 29th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 78th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 98th | |||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 11 | 30 | 15 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.7% bottom 23th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Darren Agu's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 22 | 11 | 29 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.3% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 98th to 61st percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Finisher | 45 | 12 | 29 | 17 | 11 #74 FBS | 7.5 #34 FBS | 5 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 16 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.6 79th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 15 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.0% 51th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Xavier Slayton's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight325 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Brian Booker's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 17 | 10 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.8% bottom 38th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 14th percentile to the 51st among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate42.9% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Gabriel Lopez's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 33 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Randolph Kpai's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jalen McIver's full player page | |||||||
| 19 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 31 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 13 | 72 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume72 92th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tavian Combs's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 12 | 13 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jon Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 5 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume47 90th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Frankie Edwards's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 11 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View CJ McBean's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 11 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Caleb Coleman's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 3 #56 FBS | 2.5 | 1 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.0% 70th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Austin Brawley's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 2 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Abraham Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 8 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.5% bottom 32th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 28th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 3rd | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 28 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% bottom 30th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jahmir Torres's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 24 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Azariah Levells's full player page | |||||||
| 47 | 9 | 10 | 8 #45 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 13 | 13 | 18/19 | 94.7 | 36/36 | 90 | 46 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 96 | 12 | 39 | 1756 | 45 | 64 | 12 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.29 EPA/play | 1 | 13 | 12 | 434 | 36.2 | 2 | 100 |
| Cover Corner | 2 | 7 | 6 | 96 | 16 | 0 | 25 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 5 | 73 | 14.6 | 1 | 49 |
| +0.43 EPA/play | 17 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Jaxton Eck
DL
128 tot (def)
2.
Tavian Combs
S
72.0 tot (def)
3.
Keagan Johnson
WR
754 yds (rec)
4.
Jack Layne
QB
2,486 yds (pass)
5.
Jon Johnson
CB
54.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
24
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Keyshawn James-Newby
IDL
#1 of 330
Dorian Thomas
TE
#9 of 156
Jaxton Eck
IDL
#23 of 330
Brett Karhu
EDGE
#41 of 420
Mercury Swaim
IDL
#34 of 330
Damon Bankston
RB
#49 of 326
+18 more
New Mexico · 2025 schedule & results9-4Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 45% · 2 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #139 | #10 | +34.5 | @Michigan | L 17–34 139 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #91 | #207 | -17.5 | Idaho State | W 32–22 129 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #126 | #76 | +15.5 | @UCLA | W 35–10 119 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #109 | #255 | -17.5 | New Mexico State | W 38–20 136 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #112 | #102 | +2.5 | @San José State | L 28–35 131 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #112 | #30 | +15.5 | @Boise State | L 25–41 137 | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 19 | #108 | #183 | -14.5 | Nevada | W 24–22 121 | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #116 | #124 | -3 | Utah State | W 33–14 112 | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #109 | #93 | +3.5 | @UNLV | W 40–35 131 | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #91 | #186 | -15.5 | Colorado State | W 20–17 135 | 7-3 | 2-1 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #99 | #113 | -3.5 | @Air Force | W 20–3 114 | 8-3 | 3-1 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #79 | #60 | +1.5 | San Diego State | W 23–17 126 | 9-3 | 3-1 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 26 | #83 | #73 | +2 | Minnesota (N) | L 17–20 | 9-4 | 3-1 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28 | San Diego State | W 23–17 | 308 | 1 | 28:32 | -0.032 | 31.2% | 139.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 23 | @Air Force | W 20–3 | 277 | 0 | 30:46 | +0.176 | 45.6% | 113.0% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 15 | Colorado State | W 20–17 | 348 | 4 | 27:30 | -0.009 | 37.9% | 123.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | @UNLV | W 40–35 | 532 | 1 | 27:30 | +0.624 | 36.8% | 253.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | Utah State | W 33–14 | 407 | 0 | 38:16 | +0.311 | 52.2% | 106.4% | |
| Oct 19 | Nevada | W 24–22 | 348 | 2 | 30:33 | +0.176 | 38.5% | 123.7% | One-score win |
| Oct 12 | @Boise State | L 25–41 | 232 | 3 | 19:25 | +0.106 | 30.2% | 156.0% | |
| Oct 4 | @San José State | L 28–35 | 420 | 3 | 26:33 | +0.252 | 58.2% | 101.6% | Best success rate |
| Sep 27 | New Mexico State | W 38–20 | 477 | 2 | 32:05 | +0.215 | 42.4% | 143.3% | |
| Sep 13 | @UCLA | W 35–10 | 450 | 2 | 36:38 | +0.316 | 52.4% | 104.6% | |
| Sep 6 | Idaho State | W 32–22 | 373 | 1 | 29:29 | +0.182 | 37.5% | 126.4% | |
| Aug 30 | @Michigan | L 17–34 | 267 | 3 | 33:02 | -0.052 | 38.2% | 93.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 370 | 1.8 | +0.189 | 41.8% | 132.0% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025New Mexico fields a capable explosive, big-play offense behind a solid defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How New Mexico actually scores
58th percentile quality, 60th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
New Mexico's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 82nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 87th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does New Mexico hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
38th percentile success on standard downs, 60th on passing downs — a 22-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
New Mexico by half
1st-half offense ranks 78th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 47th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of New Mexico's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.19; 63rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 21: 0.19 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
New Mexico reads strongest in explosive plays (top 26%) and rushing epa allowed (top 31%); the crux lives in success rate, where New Mexico sits at the 45th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · New Mexico
Most Similar Programs · New MexicoReads Like
CharlotteTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontColorado StateTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontEast CarolinaTier 3 · Prestige T2 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · New Mexico · 2018-present
Strong
42% home win rate vs 23% on the road. margin runs +7.9 better at home. University Stadium (NM) seats 39,224, averaging 46% full (18,139 attendance, 23 games reported).
Home19-26Away11-35
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
DJ McKinney and Damon Bankston split the carries (107/210 vs 103/210) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Damon Bankston produces in bigger chunks.
DJ McKinneyDamon Bankston
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 4 claims, 1 survived, 3 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Keagan Johnson (WR) and Dorian Thomas (TE) split the targets (86/157 vs 71/157) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Keagan Johnson is the one trusted on 3rd down.
Keagan JohnsonDorian Thomas
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
p = 0.003 -- real, not noise
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
See it develop week by week
3rd-down target share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Screened 4 claims, 1 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
New Mexico’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Jason Beck (2024) → Luke Schleusner (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Nick Howell (2024) → Spence Nowinsky (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, New Mexico’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 123-play sample) — mid-pack, 120 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=123 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 73.2%
Venue texture
67°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 70 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
New Mexico's 2014–2025 record is 53-89. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
430-602-19
since 1909 · 108 seasons · .409 win rate
HOME
270-255-8
AWAY
155-337-10
NEUTRAL
5-10-1
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
The Mountain West preseason poll put New Mexico 11th of 12 in 2025. Jason Eck's first team went 9-4, tied for first in the league, ended a nine-year bowl drought, and won Mountain West Coach of the Year. The sentence doesn't read like it should.
New Mexico's permanent identity is the altitude and the defense. Brian Urlacher was a Lobo before he was a Chicago Bear — an All-American linebacker in 1999 who went to Canton, the greatest player the program produced. Rocky Long came back as an alum, built the 3-3-5 defensive scheme that became the program's fingerprint, and delivered a 9-4 bowl year in 2007 before returning for a second stint. The thin air at University Stadium (roughly 5,100 feet above sea level) is a real home-field variable, especially in fourth quarters against visiting offenses that haven't trained at altitude. The Lobos have always had those two weapons. The decade between Rocky Long's sustained run and Jason Eck's 2025 arrival was the long quiet — a revolving door of coaches, consecutive losing seasons, and a bowl drought stretching back to 2016.
Eck arrived in 2025 from a staff position and did something that almost never happens cleanly: a first-year coach in a mid-major program that hasn't won in years walked into the league and won. Nine wins, a Mountain West co-first-place finish, a Rate Bowl berth (a 20-17 overtime loss to Minnesota), and the conference's Coach of the Year award. The 2025 breakthrough was real — the schedule confirms it, the conference standing confirms it. The question the offseason is asking is whether Eck can hold what he built.
The 2026 season is the test every Lobo fan who has watched false dawns before is calibrating for. Can New Mexico win eight games again? Can the defense sustain Urlacher's shadow without being outrecruited at every position? The belief faction says Eck has changed the trajectory permanently. The caution faction has seen one-year surges flame out in Albuquerque before and needs a second data point.
How they play
Defense and altitude — the twin edges that define New Mexico football in its best years. Rocky Long's 3-3-5 scheme, now the structural heritage Eck works within, assigns multiple defenders to multiple gap responsibilities in a way that generates confusion for standard offensive lineman ID. The Lobos are not a high-tempo, points-in-bunches offense; they win by keeping games close, grinding opposing offenses in thin air, and converting late-game defensive stops into short fields. University Stadium's elevation is not a gimmick — visiting teams running a power run game feel it in the fourth quarter.
Steady
New Mexico 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.00 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 1.
CFP Era · New Mexico
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4Bowl eligible
New Mexico: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Mountain West Standing · 2025
2nd in the Mountain West
New Mexico is 2nd in the Mountain West at 3-1. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 4-1 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 3-1 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 2-2 |
| 4 | Nevada | 2-2 |
| 5 | Air Force | 2-3 |
| 6 | San José State | 2-3 |
| 7 | Wyoming | 1-4 |
| 8 | North Dakota State | 0-0 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · New Mexico
Coaching Era · New MexicoJason Eck
Jason Eck in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Jason Eck · 2025–presentPrev: Bronco Mendenhall (2024)OC: Luke SchleusnerPrev OC: Jason Beck (2024)DC: Spence NowinskyPrev DC: Nick Howell (2024)
2
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
University Stadium Altitude (5,300 ft)
since 1960
University Stadium ('The Pit Stadium') sits at 5,300 ft — high enough to give visiting flatland teams late-game conditioning concerns. The Albuquerque desert + the high-altitude air + the stadium's bowl design + the 39,000 capacity create a venue distinct from larger flagship-state programs in the Mountain West cycle.
Rocky Long Era (1998-2008)
since 1998
Rocky Long's 1998-2008 tenure at New Mexico — defensive-minded coach who developed the 3-3-5 scheme — produced the program's modern peak: 2007 9-4 + New Mexico Bowl championship (his 10th year as head coach, not his first). Long went on to a second head-coaching tenure at San Diego State (2011-2019); his 3-3-5 defense influenced multiple coaching trees including Tom Bradley's Penn State and others.
Lobo Wolf Howl
since 1960s
The Lobo (Spanish for 'wolf') howl + the howl-the-other-team gesture + the wolf-iconography in the Lobo mascot character combine into a fan identity unique among Mountain West programs. The 'pack' identity + the team-as-wolves metaphor anchor every game-day visual.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2007 New Mexico Bowl shutout
Rocky Long's 9-4 Lobos blank Nevada 23-0 in the New Mexico Bowl — a high point of the program's best modern era
2025
Eck's first-year miracle
Picked 11th of 12, New Mexico goes 9-4, ties for first, ends a long bowl drought, and Jason Eck wins MW Coach of the Year
Moment of the Year · New Mexico · 2025
Moment of the Year · New Mexico · 2025Lost 17-34 at Michigan
Week 1 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2015-2025): 1-2
Most recent: 2025 — loss 20-17 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-2.
202520162015
NFL Draft Pipeline
2023–2026
NFL Draft PipelineThin
2 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
2
picks · 0 R1
#198
Jerrick Reed II
Safety · 2023 · Seattle · #17/493 final season
#252
Keyshawn James-Newby
Defensive Edge · 2026 · Philadelphia · #1/330 final season
#99 all-time · 2 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
New Mexico’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2017 · Bob DeBesse2018 · Calvin Magee2019 · Joe Dailey2020–2022 · Derek Warehime2023 · Bryant Vincent2024 · Jason Beck2025 (ongoing) · Luke Schleusner
Defense2014–2025
2014–2018 · Kevin Cosgrove2019 · Jordan Peterson2020–2022 · Rocky Long2023 · Troy Reffett2024 · Nick Howell2025 (ongoing) · Spence Nowinsky
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 12% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the CB room but opened a hole at TE.
1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
New Mexico converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.
r/cfb moments
952
[Postgame Thread] Montana State Defeats New Mexico 35-31
164
[Game Thread] Montana State @ New Mexico (4:00 PM ET)
141
[Postgame Thread] LSU Defeats New Mexico 38-0
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