New Mexico routs Central Michigan 38-7

Team pages: Central Michigan · New Mexico

Central Michigan0-17
New Mexico1-038Final
Sat, Sep 5 · University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, N.M. · Crowd 24,126FS1

New Mexico routed Central Michigan 38-7.

We had New Mexico favored. It won.

Next: Central Michigan beat Colgate 13-10, Sat Sep 12

Next: New Mexico beat Mercyhurst 70-7, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave New Mexico a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (New Mexico was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.

FinalNew Mexico 38-7 Central MichiganNew Mexico wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4New MexicoWon38-7Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4New MexicoWon38-7Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4New MexicoLowest 0%Lost7-38Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4New MexicoLowest 0%Lost7-38Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

New Mexico’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (New Mexico -11.5), at 84% for New Mexico (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show New Mexico’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 8:58Humphrey 15-yd runfumblesQ1, 8:58 · New Mexico 0, Central Michigan 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q2, 0:26Flores intercepted by Slayton at the UNM43Q2, 0:26 · New Mexico 20, Central Michigan 020-0score after the play20-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q3, 7:05Laubstein 3-yd TD runNew Mexico leads 28-0Q3, 7:05 · New Mexico 28, Central Michigan 028-0score after the play28-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q3, 4:03Moga 11-yd TD pass to GeorgeNew Mexico leads 35-0Q3, 4:03 · New Mexico 35, Central Michigan 035-0score after the play35-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q4, 10:11Fa'avae sacked for a 8-yd lossQ4, 10:11 · New Mexico 35, Central Michigan 035-0score after the play35-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q4, 4:23Williams 23-yd TD runcuts it to 38-7Q4, 4:23 · New Mexico 38, Central Michigan 738-7score after the play38-7score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

New Mexico scored on 8 of its 10 drives; Central Michigan on 1 of its 10.

New Mexico’s drives are teal, Central Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1New Mexico: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntCentral Michigan: Punt, from 68 yards out to 71PuntNew Mexico: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntNew Mexico: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntNew Mexico: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 31Field goalCentral Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntNew Mexico: Field goal, from 89 yards out to 29Field goalCentral Michigan: Interception, from 75 yards out to 45InterceptionNew Mexico: Field goal, from 57 yards out to 48Field goalQ3Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntNew Mexico: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 78PuntNew Mexico: Touchdown, from 39 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 62FumbleQ4New Mexico: Field goal, from 38 yards out to 32Field goalCentral Michigan: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNew Mexico: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntCentral Michigan: End of game, from 80 yards out to 72End of game

What it cost

Central Michigan’s chance to win the conference fell from 5% to 4%.

Win the conference

Central Michigan · lost5% → ▼4%5%▼ 4%
New Mexico · won21% → ▲22%21%▲ 22%

Before the game (September 5, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

New Mexico 38, Central Michigan 7

New Mexico covered −11.5 by 19.5. The total, 45, stayed under 47.5.

Central MichiganNew MexicoTotal yardsCentral Michigan 149New Mexico 364149364Passing yardsCentral Michigan 30New Mexico 15930159Rushing yardsCentral Michigan 119New Mexico 205119205First downsCentral Michigan 9New Mexico 28928TurnoversCentral Michigan 2New Mexico 020Time of possessionCentral Michigan 22:31New Mexico 37:2922:3137:29
Team totalsCentral MichiganNew Mexico
Total yards149364
Passing7 of 16, 30 yds17 of 25, 159 yds
Rushing32 for 119 yds44 for 205 yds
First downs928
Third down2 of 117 of 13
Fourth down2 of 31 of 1
Turnovers20
Penalties9 for 84 yds4 for 20 yds
Time of possession22:3137:29

Central Michigan leaders

  • Passing Jadyn Glasser 4 of 10, 16 yds
  • Rushing Angel H Flores 10 for 27 yds; Vaughn Blue 3 for 25 yds
  • Receiving Nasir Williams 1 for 11 yds; Jaden Allen 1 for 10 yds

New Mexico leaders

  • Passing Luke Moga 13 of 17, 116 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Scottre Humphrey 13 for 64 yds, 1 TD; Toa Faavae 7 for 45 yds
  • Receiving Bailen George 4 for 36 yds, 1 TD; Cade Keith 3 for 28 yds

No rain and calm

86° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north-northwest, gusts to 16

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 66 other games played at University Stadium (NM) since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).

September game-day temperatures at University Stadium (NM)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4New Mexico favoredCentral Michigan favored100%Win chanceNew MexicoRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4New Mexico favoredCentral Michigan favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:51 left8:16 p.m.
Central Michigan 0, New Mexico 0 · New Mexico 84% to win
no rain · wind 3 mph from the west · 86°
Humphrey 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Albuquerque International airport, 1.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Central Michigan · 7-6

Rated 120th in our preseason ratings.

L 7-34 @ Northwestern #57 of 667

lost by 27 as a 13.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 7-34 vs Northwestern. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 22%.

L 3-21 vs Toledo #28 of 667

lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 3-21 vs Toledo. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 65%.

W 28-16 @ Kent State #202 of 667

won by 12 as a 7.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 28-16 at Kent State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 60%, high 99%.

W 38-19 vs Buffalo #156 of 667

won by 19 as a 2.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 38-19 vs Buffalo. Chance to win started at 67%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

L 21-24 @ Western Michigan #96 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 21-24 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 71%.

W 38-13 vs Massachusetts #243 of 667

won by 25 as a 17.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 38-13 vs Massachusetts. Chance to win started at 93%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

W 27-6 @ Bowling Green #126 of 667

won by 21 as a 3.5-point underdog

Central Michigan won 27-6 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 27%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

L 22-28 @ Akron #170 of 667

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

Central Michigan lost 22-28 at Akron. Chance to win started at 59%, low 5%, high 75%.

W 24-13 vs Eastern Michigan #178 of 667

won by 11 as a 3.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 24-13 vs Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 76%, low 74%, high better than 99%.

W 49-10 vs Wagner #259 of 667

won by 39 as a 30.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 49-10 vs Wagner. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 3-63 @ MichiganTop 25 #16 of 667

lost by 60 as a 27.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 3-63 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 17-45 @ PittsburghTop 25 #65 of 667

lost by 28 as a 21.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 17-45 at Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 6%.

W 16-14 @ San José State #112 of 667

won by 2 as a 14.5-point underdog

Central Michigan won 16-14 at San José State. Chance to win started at 14%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

New Mexico · 9-4

Rated 73rd in our preseason ratings.

L 17-20 @ Minnesota #72 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

New Mexico lost 17-20 vs Minnesota. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 68%.

W 23-17 vs San Diego State #68 of 667

won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

New Mexico won 23-17 vs San Diego State. Chance to win started at 53%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

W 20-3 @ Air Force #172 of 667

won by 17 as a 3.5-point favorite

New Mexico won 20-3 at Air Force. Chance to win started at 53%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 20-17 vs Colorado State #179 of 667

won by 3 as a 15.5-point favorite

New Mexico won 20-17 vs Colorado State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

W 40-35 @ UNLV #114 of 667

won by 5 as a 4.5-point underdog

New Mexico won 40-35 at UNLV. Chance to win started at 31%, low 23%, high better than 99%.

W 33-14 vs Utah State #137 of 667

won by 19 as a 2.5-point favorite

New Mexico won 33-14 vs Utah State. Chance to win started at 69%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

W 24-22 vs Nevada #174 of 667

won by 2 as a 14.5-point favorite

New Mexico won 24-22 vs Nevada. Chance to win started at 88%, low 71%, high better than 99%.

L 25-41 @ Boise StateTop 25 #49 of 667

lost by 16 as a 15.5-point underdog

New Mexico lost 25-41 at Boise State. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 33%.

L 28-35 @ San José State #104 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

New Mexico lost 28-35 at San José State. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 35%.

W 38-20 vs New Mexico State #210 of 667

won by 18 as a 17.5-point favorite

New Mexico won 38-20 vs New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

W 35-10 @ UCLA #67 of 667

won by 25 as a 15.5-point underdog

New Mexico won 35-10 at UCLA. Chance to win started at 13%, low 10%, high better than 99%.

W 32-22 vs Idaho State #212 of 667

won by 10 as a 17.5-point favorite

New Mexico won 32-22 vs Idaho State. Chance to win started at 92%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

L 17-34 @ MichiganTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 17 as a 34.5-point underdog

New Mexico lost 17-34 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Central Michigan’s passing EPA against New Mexico, 94 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Central Michigan’s passing EPA against New Mexico’s defense

    94 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Central Michigan offense, 3rd percentile · New Mexico defense, 97th

  2. Central Michigan’s success rate against New Mexico’s defense

    89 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Central Michigan offense, 11th percentile · New Mexico defense, 100th

  3. Central Michigan’s explosive plays against New Mexico’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Central Michigan offense, 56th percentile · New Mexico defense, 8th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Central MichiganNew Mexico
EPA/play, offense
Central Michigan · 25New Mexico · 50
EPA/play, defense
Central Michigan · 19New Mexico · 100
Success rate, offense
Central Michigan · 11New Mexico · 37
Success rate, defense
Central Michigan · 8New Mexico · 100
Explosive-play rate, offense
Central Michigan · 56New Mexico · 73
Explosive-play rate, defense
Central Michigan · 92New Mexico · 8
Rush EPA, offense
Central Michigan · 53New Mexico · 80
Rush EPA, defense
Central Michigan…New Mexico · 84
Pass EPA, offense
Central Michigan · 3New Mexico · 33
Pass EPA, defense
Central Michigan · 54New Mexico · 97

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Central Michigan fans are in a better mood than New Mexico fans (76th vs 32nd among FBS fanbases), even with New Mexico favored.

50-50Model 76% · Line 82%New Mexico fans · 32ndCentral Michigan fa…Central MichiganNew Mexico

New Mexico favored by 11.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

New Mexico by 11.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Central Michigan.

opened −12.5now −11.5

Spread: −12.5 → −11.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 83° at kickoff.

Central Michigan at New Mexico · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · University Stadium, Albuquerque

  • 83°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 93weather score, Comfortable
  • Bestof the day's 6 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 6 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's six kickoff times. At University Stadium that day, a 4 pm kickoff would have scored 65, against 93 at 8 pm.

  • 11 am: 77, Mixed
  • 4 pm: 65, Rough
  • 5 pm: 72, Rough
  • 6 pm: 80, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 8 pm: 93, Comfortable (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

New Mexico is worth +2.5 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile.

39% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (16-25 home, 13-36 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 5,100 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,302 miles to get here.

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