Central Michigan beats Colgate 13-10

Team pages: Colgate · Central Michigan

Colgate2-110
Central Michigan1-113Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Mich. · Crowd 19,005ESPN+

Central Michigan beat Colgate 13-10.

We had Central Michigan favored. It won.

Next: Colgate beat Cornell 20-7, Sat Sep 19

Next: Central Michigan beat Wyoming 24-10, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Flores 50-yd TD run, blocked, cuts it to 10-6 (Q3, 0:24). Central Michigan went from 44% to 68% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Central Michigan a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (Central Michigan was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.

The edge changed hands 6 times before Central Michigan won it.

Colgate led by 10 but, as an 18.5-point underdog, never had better than a 60% chance.

FinalCentral Michigan 13-10 ColgateCentral Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q461% at halfCentral MichiganColgateWon13-1012+11+24Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q461% at halfCentral MichiganWon13-1012Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q439% at halfColgateCentral MichiganLost10-1312−11−24Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q439% at halfCentral MichiganLost10-1312Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 7:45FumbleStearney sacked for a 2-yd loss, fumblesCentral Michigan 68% → 79% (+11)
  2. 2Q3 0:244th and 1Flores 50-yd TD run, blocked, cuts it to 10-6Central Michigan 44% → 68% (+24)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 7:45FumbleStearney sacked for a 2-yd loss, fumblesColgate 32% → 21% (−11)
  2. 2Q3 0:244th and 1Flores 50-yd TD run, blocked, cuts it to 10-6Colgate 56% → 32% (−24)
Central Michigan’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Central Michigan -18.5), at 91% for Central Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Central Michigan scored on 2 of its 12 drives; Colgate on 2 of its 11.

Central Michigan’s drives are teal, Colgate’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Colgate: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntCentral Michigan: Missed field goal, from 48 yards out to 11Missed FGColgate: Punt, from 80 yards out to 60PuntCentral Michigan: Interception, from 65 yards out to 50InterceptionColgate: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntColgate: Fumble, from 60 yards out to 44FumbleCentral Michigan: Punt, from 56 yards out to 53PuntColgate: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 68FumbleCentral Michigan: Punt, from 32 yards out to 24PuntColgate: Punt, from 90 yards out to 86PuntCentral Michigan: Interception, from 70 yards out to 73InterceptionColgate: Field goal, from 35 yards out to 31Field goalCentral Michigan: End of half, from 79 yards out to 66End of halfQ3Central Michigan: Fumble, from 64 yards out to 26FumbleColgate: Punt, from 74 yards out to 61PuntCentral Michigan: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownColgate: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntQ4Central Michigan: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownColgate: Interception, from 59 yards out to 43InterceptionCentral Michigan: Punt, from 38 yards out to 32PuntColgate: Interception, from 94 yards out to 41InterceptionCentral Michigan: End of game, from 72 yards out to 73End of game

Box score

Central Michigan 13, Colgate 10

Colgate covered +18.5 by 15.5. The total, 23, stayed under 48.5.

ColgateCentral MichiganTotal yardsColgate 219Central Michigan 276219276Passing yardsColgate 124Central Michigan 7612476Rushing yardsColgate 95Central Michigan 20095200First downsColgate 15Central Michigan 161516TurnoversColgate 4Central Michigan 343Time of possessionColgate 27:19Central Michigan 32:4127:1932:41
Team totalsColgateCentral Michigan
Total yards219276
Passing16 of 31, 124 yds10 of 21, 76 yds
Rushing31 for 95 yds42 for 200 yds
First downs1516
Third down5 of 146 of 16
Fourth down1 of 13 of 3
Turnovers43
Penalties6 for 70 yds6 for 62 yds
Time of possession27:1932:41

Colgate leaders

  • Passing Jake Stearney 16 of 31, 124 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Daniel Shaban 22 for 87 yds; Jake Stearney 6 for 16 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Kam Phillips 3 for 43 yds; Winston Moore 5 for 35 yds

Central Michigan leaders

  • Passing Angel H Flores 7 of 13, 57 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Angel H Flores 22 for 122 yds, 1 TD; Vaughn Blue 6 for 27 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Vaughn Blue 3 for 29 yds; Justin Ruffin Jr. 1 for 18 yds

No rain through the game

81° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 53 other games played at Kelly/Shorts Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 56° and 79°.

September game-day temperatures at Kelly/Shorts Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Central Michigan favoredColgate favored100%Win chanceCentral MichiganRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Central Michigan favoredColgate favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 0:24 left3:06 p.m.
Colgate 10, Central Michigan 6 · Central Michigan 68% to win
no rain · 84°
Flores 50-yd TD run, blocked, cuts it to 10-6

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Mount Pleasant airport, 3.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Colgate · 2-0

Rated 214th in our preseason ratings, 208th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 35-10 vs Holy Cross #209 of 668

won by 25 as a 4.5-point favorite

Colgate won 35-10 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 70%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

W 24-14 @ Fordham #249 of 668

won by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite

Colgate won 24-14 at Fordham. Chance to win started at 63%, low 55%, high 97%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Central Michigan · 7-6

Rated 120th in our preseason ratings, 120th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-34 @ Northwestern #57 of 667

lost by 27 as a 13.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 7-34 vs Northwestern. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 22%.

L 3-21 vs Toledo #28 of 667

lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 3-21 vs Toledo. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 65%.

W 28-16 @ Kent State #202 of 667

won by 12 as a 7.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 28-16 at Kent State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 60%, high 99%.

W 38-19 vs Buffalo #156 of 667

won by 19 as a 2.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 38-19 vs Buffalo. Chance to win started at 67%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

L 21-24 @ Western Michigan #96 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 21-24 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 71%.

W 38-13 vs Massachusetts #243 of 667

won by 25 as a 17.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 38-13 vs Massachusetts. Chance to win started at 93%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

W 27-6 @ Bowling Green #126 of 667

won by 21 as a 3.5-point underdog

Central Michigan won 27-6 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 27%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

L 22-28 @ Akron #170 of 667

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite

Central Michigan lost 22-28 at Akron. Chance to win started at 59%, low 5%, high 75%.

W 24-13 vs Eastern Michigan #178 of 667

won by 11 as a 3.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 24-13 vs Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 76%, low 74%, high better than 99%.

W 49-10 vs Wagner #259 of 667

won by 39 as a 30.5-point favorite

Central Michigan won 49-10 vs Wagner. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 3-63 @ MichiganTop 25 #16 of 667

lost by 60 as a 27.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 3-63 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 17-45 @ PittsburghTop 25 #65 of 667

lost by 28 as a 21.5-point underdog

Central Michigan lost 17-45 at Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 6%.

W 16-14 @ San José State #112 of 667

won by 2 as a 14.5-point underdog

Central Michigan won 16-14 at San José State. Chance to win started at 14%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Central Michigan

  • Wk 1Lat New Mexico7-38

Colgate

Wk 1: W 24-14 at Fordham▲10FordhamWk 1: W 35-10 vs Holy Cross▲25Holy Cross
  • Wk 1Wat Fordham24-14
  • Wk 1Wvs Holy Cross35-10

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Central Michigan’s chances here.

50-50Model · 64%Line · 93%ColgateCentral Michigan

Central Michigan favored by 18.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Central Michigan by 18.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward Colgate.

opened −23.5now −18.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 49.5now 48.5

Spread: −23.5 → −18.5 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 83° at kickoff.

Colgate at Central Michigan · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant

  • 83°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 79weather score, Mixed

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Kelly/Shorts Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 79 at 1 pm.

  • noon: 82, Mixed
  • 1 pm: 79, Mixed (this game)
  • 2 pm: 78, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 76, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 93, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Central Michigan is worth +7.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 96th percentile.

56% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (22-17 home, 13-36 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 467 miles to get here.

Where next