2coordinators
Buffalo: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Pete Lembo begins his tenure with a 5-7 losing record and a program still seeking its first MAC title since 2008, despite a recent stadium upgrade and Khalil Mack's legacy.
Buffalo5-7Latest
Cautious optimism is building around Buffalo.
belief warmed ↑ 6.5vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
57/100 · 130 mentions · top 29% of FBS
~ our readGrounding
about average
6% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 30 pts
~ our readThe model
#94
CFB Zeitgeist · -2.3
✓ measured2Hope-Doping·Offseason
Buffalo has one MAC title (2008) and one all-time great in Khalil Mack, and just signed the biggest naming-rights deal in conference history a year after its best season in over a decade gave way to a step back.
Title DroughtSince 2008 · 17 yrs
Buffalo produced a fifth-overall NFL draft pick and an NCAA defensive-record holder in Khalil Mack, yet the program still gets talked about as one of the MAC's anonymous programs. Fans point to Mack's…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Buffalo
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production66%High continuity
Talent Composite#112 nationally247 composite 513.3
Portal Additions16Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses16Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#101Depth class
DLin 2 - Stantavious Smithout 3 - Junior PoyserDowngrade
current room: 289 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 3 - Logan Goodwinout 2 - Shamar Riser-PressleyEven
current room: 261 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 3 - Joey Cheshireout 1 - Dion CrawfordNeed Filled
current room: 223 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 1 - Sayre Smothersout 3 - Eddie Pleasant IIIStarter Risk
current room: 190 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 0out 2 - Victor SnowStarter Risk
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 0out 2 - Jalen McNairStarter Risk
current room: 195 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire event
Approaching
28 days
until kickoff · vs UAlbany · Thu Sep 3 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Buffalo hasn't won a MAC title since 2008, but produced Khalil Mack -- the program's lone Defensive Player of the Year and a fifth-overall NFL draft pick -- and just landed the largest naming-rights deal in MAC history, renaming its home Broadview Stadium, after a 2024 breakout (9-4, Bahamas Bowl champions) gave way to a 5-7 step back in Pete Lembo's second season.
Offense: PoorDefense: Strong
Buffalo's 2026 season hinges on transfer portal balance and returning continuity
With a balanced transfer portal churn and high continuity, Buffalo aims for a 7-6 record and bowl eligibility. The team's depth class and moderate roster volatility suggest a competitive but not dominant season.
- Roster reloadBuffalo has a balanced transfer portal churn with 16 transfers in and 16 out, and a recruiting rank of #101.
- ScheduleBuffalo's base scenario projects a 7-6 record with bowl eligibility.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Victor E. Bull paws quietly at the turf.
Buffalo · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Buffalo's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Buffalo enters 2026 — the 95th SP+ ranking and 5-7 record highlight a steep drop from 2024, raising questions about Pete Lembo’s ability to stabilize a program that hasn’t been.
what happenedBuffalo enters 2026 rated No. 95 in 2025 SP+ (-7.5), down 8 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Pete Lembo begins his tenure at Buffalo with a 5-7 roster and 66% production returning, but the program's last MAC title in 2008 and Khalil Mack's legacy add weight to this season's stakes.
what happenedPete Lembo took over as Buffalo's head coach, replacing Maurice Linguist. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 4-year head coach Maurice Linguist (21-27)
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle✓ factnew
Nik McMillan is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Pete Lembo begins his tenure with a 5-7 losing record and a program still seeking its first MAC title since 2008, despite a recent stadium upgrade and Khalil Mack's legacy.
what happenedBuffalo: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Buffalo enters 2025 at No. 95 in SP+ — Pete Lembo's first season opens with a losing record and talent rank outside the top 100.
what happenedBuffalo enters 2025 rated No. 95 in SP+ (-7.5), down 8 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredBuffalo's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downBuffalo's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downBuffalo's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Buffalo
1 verified update · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Recruiting
Elijah Kimble commits to Syracuse
Lembo's first offseason and a CB-pressured depth chart already losing a local Canisius product to an ACC program — No. 95 SP+ teams can't afford to let the regional pipeline leak upward.
Transfer portal snapshot
+3.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: -0.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-7.1
starter risk
S-7.0
starter risk
IOL+6.8
need not filled
LB+6.5
need not filled
DL-3.8
QB+3.3
low confidence
RB-3.3
low confidence
TE+3.2
low confidence
CB-2.9
starter risk
P+2.0
LS+1.0
low confidence
EDGE+0.7
OT-0.2
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Malachi Ervin
#508 national
★★★☆☆
Chase Enlow
#966 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Qur'an McNeill
#1066 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
71st percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
71st
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Fans 45pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#104 in field+100000
MAC title#8 in market+1300
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Buffalo · Next-Season Outcome Band
Buffalo · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 7-6
Ceiling 9-4
floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Buffalo · Season outlook Confidence
Buffalo enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Buffalo enters 2026 rated No. 95 in 2025 SP+ (-7.5), down 8 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Buffalo enters 2026 — the 95th SP+ ranking and 5-7 record highlight a steep drop from 2024, raising questions about Pete Lembo’s ability to stabilize a program that hasn’t been.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Buffalo enters 2026 rated No. 95 in 2025 SP+ (-7.5), down 8 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Cumulus Media’s 97 Rock Welcomes Buffalo Broadcasting Legends Paul Peck and Kevin Sylvester to Buffalo Bills Team Coverage”
talkers.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“UB coordinator Tony Tokarz seeks 'toughness' in program's next QB”
Buffalo News · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Photos: Day 5 of Buffalo Bills training camp”
Buffalo News · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Buffalo Bills avoid worst-case scenario with safety C.J. Gardner” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Buffalo Bills avoid worst-case scenario with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson injury”
Syracuse.com · 2026-08-01 · read ↗
💬The boards6% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral.›
This event was in 44 of 698 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Last year I lived in Fargo Quad.💀 I had great suitemates and met a very small number of other people I liked, but outside of that, the year felt pretty dead. I tried going to The L"
r/UBreddit ~ fan take
"Coach Sharkey had a full recruiting cycle, got players in here that she was able to spend time scouting, including top guard in NJ, Ava Lamonica, and local product Annabelle Day. A"
UBFan ~ fan take
Board health this week (134 posts): 12% positive · 78% neutral · 10% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Developing · Buffalo · Coaching Confidence
The Pete Lembo era at Buffalo: where it actually stands.
Pete Lembo took over as Buffalo's head coach, replacing Maurice Linguist. It is replaces 4-year head coach Maurice Linguist (21-27). The coverage has largely bought in. The field test is what separates the presser from the program. The coverage has largely bought in, though the field test is still ahead.
Developing1 new this week
last weekPete Lembo embraces UB football's coaching overhaul entering preseason camp — Buffalo News
Jan 27Sources: Buffalo, Pete Lembo land new special teams coordinator — FootballScoop.com
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Pete Lembo Head coach
“Pete Lembo embraces UB football's coaching overhaul entering preseason camp” — Buffalo News · 2026-07-30
Maurice Linguist Out
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Pete Lembo begins his tenure at Buffalo with a 5-7 roster and 66% production returning, but the program's last MAC title in 2008 and Khalil Mack's legacy add weight to this season's stakes.
Next · what to watch
The obvious story is the marquee name; the non-obvious one is roster churn — a coaching change keeps a portal and decommit window open long after the introductory presser. Watch decommitments and portal moves in the next window — that's where this is actually won or lost, not at the podium.
Source of record: Pete Lembo took over as Buffalo's head coach, replacing Maurice Linguist — replaces 4-year head coach Maurice Linguist (21-27).
How each room reacted — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.›
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards1 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: mostly neutral.›
Only 1 of 698 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"Announced today, voted 6th in MAC coaches poll ESPN MAC review writer all in on Lembo, picked us 4th (110th in FBS)"
UBFan ~ fan take
"Lembo looks confused after every play and Roberson should’ve been left on the bench at any of his former schools."
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (134 posts): 12% positive · 78% neutral · 10% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
🔗The dominoes8 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.›
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Sep 3
vs UAlbany · at home
Season line5.5 winsover -155
PoorStrong
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Akron
Uneasy-20
Steel Tire
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
20
NJ · 6OH · 5NY · 2PA · 2AZ · 1FL · 1MA · 1MI · 1+1 more
NJ leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
85 signees across 27 states, 2023-2026. NY leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Buffalo Defeats UMass 28-21
[Postgame Thread] Buffalo Defeats St. Francis 45-6
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
5 games with TV coverage: 1 ESPN, 3 cable, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 3 primetime
Fumble luck
57% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.
8 of 14 forced fumbles recovered; 7 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
15% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
7 interceptions of 46 disrupted passes (39 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
65 penalties committed, 59 drawn on opponents — ceding 113 yards of field position.
548 penalty yards committed vs. 435 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Buffalo
57
Δ +6.5 vs last wk
130
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Bulls"
— Buffalo fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence0 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 9 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
HHustle Belt
UUBFan
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
+0.00whole-room sentiment · cool our read
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.00 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
HHustle BeltBeat · article
And with that, Hustle Belt comes to a close
hustlebelt.com →How Buffalo fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
So Boise was more conditioned to play in the Florida heat than Florida State
▲ 2.1k ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Die-hards−0.06
National take−0.06
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
474 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkmiddle of the pack
~ our readBuffalo fans are split right down the middle, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 134 posts from Buffalo fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 55% believers, 45% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Diehard fan boards16 posts
The broader fanbase5 posts
News & campus coverage8 posts
Fanbase Health Index · Buffalo · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Buffalo · high confidenceGrowing (58)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)47
Volume — 1209 effective signal-N92
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.00 — quiet35
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#89 / 138 · 36th pct24.0
Pts allowed/game#50 / 138 · 64th pct23.5
Total yards/gm#98 / 136 · 29th pct362.2
Rush yards/gm#102 / 136 · 26th pct133.2
Pass yards/gm#76 / 136 · 45th pct229.0
Yards allowed/gm#23 / 136 · 84th pct344.2
Rush yds allowed/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct157.8
Sacks#22 / 136 · 85th pct34
Interceptions#94 / 136 · 32nd pct7
3rd-down conv#103 / 136 · 25th pct35.8%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team4346362.2/gm5.27/play#98 / 136 · 29th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp4130344.2/gm4.90/play#23 / 136 · 84th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush yards
Team1598133.2/gm1.94/play#102 / 136 · 26th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp1893157.8/gm2.25/play#69 / 136 · 50th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush carries
Team41334.4/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp49841.5/gm#116 / 136 · 15th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Rush TDs
Team151.2/gm#97 / 136 · 29th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp161.3/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Net pass yards
Team2748229.0/gm3.33/play#76 / 136 · 45th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp2237186.4/gm2.66/play#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass attempts
Team41134.2/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp34428.7/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Completions
Team23519.6/gm#76 / 136 · 45th pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp19115.9/gm#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Pass TDs
Team191.6/gm#70 / 136 · 49th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp171.4/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Passer rating
Team125.2125.2#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp118.3118.3#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team141.2/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp70.6/gm#33 / 136 · 76th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Sacks (def)
Team342.8/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp231.9/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Tackles for loss
Team736.1/gm#55 / 136 · 60th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp675.6/gm#64 / 136 · 54th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
First downs
Team23319.4/gm#101 / 136 · 26th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp22218.5/gm#20 / 136 · 86th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down conv
Team635.2/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp665.5/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
3rd-down att
Team17614.7/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp19216.0/gm#114 / 136 · 17th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
4th-down conv
Team100.8/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp161.3/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
4th-down att
Team252.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp272.2/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Time of possession
Team336:4528:04/gm#124 / 136 · 10th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp383:1531:56/gm#74 / 136 · 46th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#39 / 135 · 72nd pct14/17 (82.4%)
Extra points30/30
Punting#38 / 136 · 73rd pct44.8 avg · 64 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team221.8/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp151.2/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Fumbles lost
Team80.7/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp80.7/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
INT return TDs
Team00.0/gm#76 / 135 · 44th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
INT return yards
Team15112.6/gm#46 / 136 · 67th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp1038.6/gm#62 / 136 · 55th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Punt ret yds
Team22919.1/gm#28 / 136 · 80th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp1078.9/gm#65 / 136 · 53rd pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#14 / 135 · 90th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team49541.2/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp39032.5/gm#70 / 136 · 49th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team54845.7/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp43536.2/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Other
Penalties (opp)#15 / 136 · 90th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct594.9/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#18 / 167 · 90th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct0.10.0/gm
First down pass rate#22 / 215 · 90th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.60.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct90.8/gm
Punt returns#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct221.8/gm
Fourth down go rate#42 / 138 · 70th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct0.40.0/gm
Kick returns#44 / 136 · 68th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct242.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#45 / 154 · 71st pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct0.40.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#55 / 136 · 60th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct191.6/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#73 / 143 · 50th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct0.20.0/gm
H2 epa per play#79 / 142 · 45th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct0.20.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct80.7/gm
Recruiting rating#92 / 138 · 34th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct155.613.0/gm
Interceptions (def)#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct70.6/gm
Punt ret (opp)#100 / 136 · 27th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct191.6/gm
Penalties#102 / 136 · 26th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct655.4/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#120 / 136 · 12th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct141.2/gm
H1 epa per play#133 / 162 · 19th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.00.0
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off35.8%#103 / 136 · 25th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def34.4%#27 / 136 · 81st pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
4th-down conversion
Off40.0%#122 / 136 · 11th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def59.3%#99 / 136 · 28th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Turnover margin#112 / 136 · 18th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct-0.58/gm
Sack rate (def)#8 / 136 · 95th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct9.9%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team352.9/gm#113 / 167 · 33rd pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp352.9/gm#57 / 166 · 66th pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Red zone score %
Team77.1%77.1%#91 / 167 · 46th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp68.6%68.6%#19 / 166 · 89th pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Points / drive
Team1.70.1/gm#102 / 167 · 40th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp1.50.1/gm#21 / 166 · 88th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / drive
Team33.92.8/gm#132 / 167 · 22nd pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp34.22.9/gm#17 / 166 · 90th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.00.5/gm#146 / 167 · 13th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp6.10.5/gm#20 / 166 · 89th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team17.6%17.6%#126 / 167 · 25th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp21.4%21.4%#13 / 166 · 93rd pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#107 / 145 · 27th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct-4.1%-4.1%
Havoc rate
Team15.2%15.2%#82 / 140 · 42nd pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp17.3%17.3%#107 / 140 · 24th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Standard-downs success
Team45.3%45.3%#107 / 154 · 31st pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp45.1%45.1%#38 / 172 · 78th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Passing-downs success
Team26.7%26.7%#120 / 153 · 22nd pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp27.2%27.2%#27 / 149 · 83rd pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.72.7#116 / 143 · 20th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp3.03.0#89 / 155 · 43rd pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Stuff rate
Team18.8%18.8%#77 / 143 · 47th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp15.9%15.9%#120 / 155 · 23rd pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Power success rate
Team61.5%61.5%#116 / 137 · 16th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp61.0%61.0%#20 / 141 · 87th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off57.2%#118 / 136 · 14th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def55.5%#13 / 136 · 91st pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Yards / attempt
Off6.7#96 / 136 · 30th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def6.5#35 / 136 · 75th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off11.7#64 / 136 · 54th pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Def11.7#81 / 136 · 41st pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / carry#101 / 136 · 26th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct3.9
Yards / play#102 / 136 · 26th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct5.27
Scoring margin#77 / 136 · 44th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#7 / 11 · 45th pct+0.5/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.17 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 206 / 356 | 57.9 | 2520 #59 FBS | 7.1 | 17 #57 FBS | 12 | 126.3 | 41.9 | 5.9 | 4.8 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Ta'Quan Roberson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.06 EPA/play | 9 | 4 | 29 / 53 | 54.7 | 228 | 4.3 | 2 | 2 | 95.8 | 14.0 | 3.4 | 0 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.07 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 182 | 755 | 4.1 | 6 | 41 | 22.9 | 21.6 | 19.6 | 8.4 | 8.6% (31/361) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.0 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate3.3% bottom 36th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 84th percentile to the 12th among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.01 EPA/play | 25 | 9 | 57 | 244 | 4.3 | 1 | 20 | 5.8 | 2.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Terrance Shelton Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.23 EPA/play | 32 | 8 | 39 | 234 | 6 | 1 | 63 | 5.1 | 9.8 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.48 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 61 | 975 #25 FBS | 16.0 | 3 | 55 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 26.3% (95/361) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.3 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume61 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nik McMillan's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.54 EPA/play | — | 12 | 62 | 815 #62 FBS | 13.1 | 8 #23 FBS | 75 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 23.8% (86/361) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Return threatRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume62 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate12.9% 76th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.04 EPA/play | 8 | 11 | 36 | 410 | 11.4 | 3 | 39 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 20.8% (75/361) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.4 bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.0 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jasaiah Gathings's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.64 EPA/play | 6 | 3 | 8 | 129 | 16.1 | 2 | 26 | 7.3 | 7.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.29 EPA/play | 21 | 6 | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 2 | 11 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.5% (27/361) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception6.1 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.3 bottom 1th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Patrick Clacks III's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.21 EPA/play | 14 | 3 | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 | 16 | 7.8 | 6 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.5 bottom 16th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.2 97th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Evan King's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.08 EPA/play | 19 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 | 19 | 4.9 | 4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 12 | 12 | 55 | 25 | 8.5 | 4 | 4 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 43rd percentile to the 72nd among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Versatile End | — | 12 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 95th to 70th percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 11 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 2-star, 2023 class our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 11 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.0% bottom 24th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View George Wolo's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 9 | 22 | 7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 85th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 14th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.7% bottom 34th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Cornell Evans's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 13 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.2% bottom 49th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Demetrius Ballard's full player page | |||||||
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 12 | 142 | 53 | 89 | 13.5 #36 FBS | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume142 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.7% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Khalil Murdock's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 10 | 79 | 30 | 49 | 5 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 39 | 12 | 70 | 41 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 79th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 15 | 12 | 52 | 20 | 32 | 6.5 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.7% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate12.5% 67th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Saveon Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| 45 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 12 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume74 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 7 | 12 | 56 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter Tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume56 97th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Solomon Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 8 | 12 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume50 93th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 54th percentile among FBS CBs to the 82nd | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 1 | 10 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 89th percentile to the 31st among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Press Corner | 9 | 12 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keontez Bradley's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 36 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate35.0% 99th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kobi Blackwell's full player page | |||||||
| 16 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Press Corner | 3 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 12th percentile to the 36th among FBS CBs | |||||||
| 5 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 22 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 91 | 12 | 14/17 | 82.4 | 30/30 | 72 | 50 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 42 | 11 | 64 | 2864 | 44.8 | 76 | 25 | 5 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.01 EPA/play | 25 | 9 | 16 | 357 | 22.3 | 0 | 40 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.54 EPA/play | — | 12 | 20 | 213 | 10.7 | 1 | 65 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Khalil Murdock
LB
142 tot (def)
2.
Nik McMillan
WR
975 yds (rec)
3.
Dion Crawford
LB
79.0 tot (def)
4.
Miles Greer
S
74.0 tot (def)
5.
Mitchell Gonser
LB
70.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
21
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Khalil Murdock
LB
#27 of 583
Junior Poyser
IDL
#31 of 330
Victor Snow
WR
#46 of 485
Nik McMillan
WR
#47 of 485
Miles Greer
S
#107 of 544
Devin Morgan
IDL
#72 of 330
+15 more
Buffalo · 2025 schedule & results5-7Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 42% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #58 | #22 | +18.5 | @Minnesota | L 10–23 123 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #43 | #202 | -37.5 | St. Francis (PA) | W 45–6 136 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #59 | #245 | -24 | @Kent State | W 31–28 146 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #72 | #85 | -6.5 | Troy | L 17–21 145 | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #79 | #71 | +2.5 | UConn | L 17–20 133 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #88 | #187 | -9.5 | Eastern Michigan | W 31–30 155 | 3-3 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #101 | #233 | -16.5 | @Massachusetts | W 28–21 143 | 4-3 | 3-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #106 | #183 | -10 | Akron | L 16–24 143 | 4-4 | 3-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #141 | #146 | +2.5 | @Bowling Green | W 28–3 123 | 5-4 | 4-1 |
| 12 | Nov 13 | #109 | #96 | +2 | @Central Michigan | L 19–38 135 | 5-5 | 4-2 |
| 13 | Nov 20 | #143 | #70 | +2.5 | Miami (OH) | L 20–37 147 | 5-6 | 4-3 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #143 | #63 | +7 | Ohio | L 26–31 137 | 5-7 | 4-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28 | Ohio | L 26–31 | 370 | 1 | 21:56 | +0.266 | 46.0% | 126.1% | One-score loss |
| Nov 20 | Miami (OH) | L 20–37 | 349 | 3 | 30:35 | +0.052 | 33.7% | 123.3% | |
| Nov 13 | @Central Michigan | L 19–38 | 398 | 5 | 28:54 | -0.304 | 33.3% | 117.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | @Bowling Green | W 28–3 | 282 | 1 | 26:00 | +0.044 | 36.5% | 126.2% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | Akron | L 16–24 | 357 | 5 | 29:38 | -0.164 | 40.0% | 75.5% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | @Massachusetts | W 28–21 | 475 | 1 | 34:20 | +0.123 | 42.2% | 120.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Eastern Michigan | W 31–30 | 387 | 1 | 22:55 | +0.186 | 37.7% | 146.5% | Most explosive |
| Sep 27 | UConn | L 17–20 | 329 | 0 | 33:50 | +0.075 | 45.1% | 93.5% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | Troy | L 17–21 | 278 | 0 | 27:08 | +0.075 | 28.6% | 126.2% | One-score loss |
| Sep 13 | @Kent State | W 31–28 | 467 | 2 | 22:38 | +0.226 | 42.0% | 143.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 6 | St. Francis (PA) | W 45–6 | 503 | 2 | 37:19 | +0.339 | 54.8% | 105.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Minnesota | L 10–23 | 151 | 1 | 21:32 | +0.031 | 27.9% | 108.9% | |
| Season average (12 games) | 362 | 1.8 | +0.079 | 39.0% | 117.7% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Buffalo fields a struggling offense behind a strong defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Buffalo actually scores
11th percentile quality, 88th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Buffalo's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 19th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 13th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Buffalo hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
29th percentile success on standard downs, 20th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Buffalo by half
1st-half offense ranks 19th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 45th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Buffalo's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.08; 29th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.18 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Buffalo reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 21%) and success rate allowed (top 30%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Buffalo sits at the 6th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Buffalo
Most Similar Programs · BuffaloReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Buffalo · 2018-present
Strong
57% home win rate vs 50% on the road. margin runs +10.5 better at home. UB Stadium seats 30,270, averaging 47% full (14,104 attendance, 24 games reported).
Home26-19Away22-22
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Al-Jay Henderson and Lamar Sperling split the carries (180/219 vs 39/219) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Lamar Sperling produces in bigger chunks.
Al-Jay HendersonLamar Sperling
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Nik McMillan (WR) and Evan King (TE) split the targets (93/103 vs 10/103) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Nik McMillanEvan King
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 0 survived, 2 falsified
What changed
Buffalo’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: DJ Mangas (2023) → Dave Patenaude (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 5 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Robert Wright (2023) → Joe Bowen (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 5 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Season by season
How Buffalo’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Dave Patenaude (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 40% → 2025: 55% · 15-pt range · #31 of 171 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 35% → 2025: 43% · 8-pt range · #131 of 171 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 46% → 2025: 44% · 2-pt range · #171 of 171 · less than most
Defense: Joe Bowen (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 40% → 2025: 55% · 15-pt range · #40 of 189 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 35% → 2025: 43% · 8-pt range · #146 of 189 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 46% → 2025: 44% · 2-pt range · #189 of 188 · less than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Buffalo’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (61.7% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 103-play sample) — mid-pack, 12 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=103 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 56.3%
Venue texture
60°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.
Based on 69 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Buffalo's 2014–2025 record is 69-73. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
172-265-4
since 1898 · 53 seasons · .390 win rate
HOME
98-110-2
AWAY
69-150-2
NEUTRAL
5-5
1890s
1900s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Buffalo has one MAC title in program history and one all-time great in Khalil Mack — and just signed the biggest naming-rights deal in conference history a year after its best season in over a decade fell apart.
The program's one banner came in 2008: Turner Gill's Bulls went 8-6, won the MAC East, and beat Ball State 42-24 at Ford Field in Detroit behind two defensive fumble-return touchdowns. It remains the only conference championship in school history.
The program's best individual talent came a few years later and needed no championship to matter. Khalil Mack was the 2013 MAC Defensive Player of the Year — the first Bull to win it — and left with an NCAA-record 16 career forced fumbles and a share of the NCAA record for career tackles for loss. Oakland took him fifth overall in the 2014 NFL Draft, still the highest pick in program history, and he went on to become one of the league's premier pass rushers.
Buffalo spent the years after chasing another peak, and got close in 2024: a 9-4 season under first-year coach Pete Lembo, a 26-7 Bahamas Bowl win over Liberty, a five-game winning streak the program hadn't matched since 1959, and just the third nine-win season in school history. Then 2025 happened — a 5-7 regression in Lembo's second year, the same MAC gauntlet producing a completely different result. Off the field, the university answered with real investment: a $31.75 million, 15-year naming-rights deal with Broadview Federal Credit Union, announced in March 2026, the largest such deal in MAC history, renaming the 30,270-seat stadium Broadview Stadium. Whether the money and the momentum add up to a repeatable program, or whether 2025 was the truer read on where Buffalo actually is, is the question hanging over 2026.
How they play
A program without one fixed defensive or offensive identity across eras — 2008's title team won with defense and situational execution; the 2024 breakout leaned on a full-team surge under Lembo. What's constant is the program's ability to produce elite individual talent (Mack chief among them) even in years the team result doesn't match.
Steady
Buffalo 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.08 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
CFP Era · Buffalo
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7FBS sub-.500
Buffalo: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Mid-American Standing · 2025
7th in the Mid-American
Buffalo is 7th of 13 in the Mid-American at 4-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Michigan | 7-1 |
| 2 | Ohio | 5-2 |
| 3 | Toledo | 5-2 |
| 4 | Central Michigan | 5-3 |
| 5 | Miami (OH) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Akron | 4-4 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 4-4 |
| 8 | Ball State | 3-4 |
| 9 | Kent State | 3-4 |
| 10 | Eastern Michigan | 2-5 |
| 11 | Bowling Green | 2-6 |
| 12 | Sacramento State | 0-0 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | 0-7 |
Coaching Era · Buffalo
Coaching Era · BuffaloPete Lembo
Pete Lembo in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Pete Lembo · 2025–presentPrev: Maurice Linguist (2021–2024)OC: Tony TokarzPrev OC: Dave Patenaude (2024–2025)DC: Brian DoughertyPrev DC: Joe Bowen (2024–2025)
2
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
The 2008 MAC Championship
since 2008
Turner Gill's third season delivered the only MAC title in program history -- an 8-6 record, the MAC East division, and a 42-24 win over Ball State at Ford Field in Detroit on December 5, 2008, sealed by two defensive fumble-return touchdowns. Every subsequent Buffalo team is measured against getting back to that game.
Khalil Mack's Ascent
since 2013
Khalil Mack was the 2013 MAC Defensive Player of the Year -- the first Bull to win the award -- finishing his career tied for the NCAA record in tackles for loss (75) and setting the NCAA record for career forced fumbles (16). The Oakland Raiders drafted him fifth overall in 2014, still the highest NFL draft selection in program history.
Broadview Stadium (renamed 2026)
since 2026
In March 2026, the University at Buffalo signed a $31.75 million, 15-year naming-rights partnership with Broadview Federal Credit Union -- the largest such deal in MAC history -- renaming the 30,270-seat stadium Broadview Stadium and funding new student scholarships.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2008 MAC Championship Game
Buffalo beats Ball State 42-24 at Ford Field, sealed by two defensive fumble-return touchdowns, for the program's only conference title
2014
Khalil Mack drafted fifth overall
The Oakland Raiders select Mack fifth overall, the highest NFL Draft selection in program history
2024 Bahamas Bowl championship
Buffalo beats Liberty 26-7 to cap a 9-4 season and a five-game winning streak, the program's best season in years
Moment of the Year · Buffalo · 2025
Moment of the Year · Buffalo · 2025Won 45-6 vs St. Francis (PA)
Week 2 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2018-2024): 4-1
Most recent: 2024 — win 7-26 (away). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
20242022202020192018
NFL Draft Pipeline
2026–2026
NFL Draft PipelineThin
1 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
1
picks · 0 R1
#257
Red Murdock
Linebacker · 2026 · Denver
#131 all-time · 1 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Buffalo’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · Alex Wood2015–2019 · Andy Kotelnicki2020 · Andy Kotelnicki / co-Jim Zebrowski2021–2022 · Shane Montgomery2023 · DJ Mangas2024–2025 · Dave Patenaude
Hired for 2026: Tony Tokarz — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014 · Lou Tepper2015–2019 · Brian Borland2020 · Brian Borland / co-Chris Simpson2021 · Joe Cauthen2022 · Brandon Bailey2023 · Robert Wright2024–2025 · Joe Bowen
Hired for 2026: Brian Dougherty — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 66% back, anchored by the offense, only qb room to settle.
The portal upgraded the IOL room but opened a hole at CB.
1 player drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
Buffalo sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
r/cfb moments
268
[Postgame Thread] Holy Cross Defeats Buffalo 37-31
161
[Postgame Thread] Buffalo Defeats Wagner 69-7
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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