The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Central Michigan 49%, Ball State 55%, Akron 67%
Win out 18% · expect 1.7 of 3 more wins
Buffalo's chance to win each game left, from our model: Ball State 55%, Central Michigan 49%, Akron 67%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 2nd in the Mid-American · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jason Wright 1,345 · Rushing Messiah Burch 901 · Receiving Chance Morrow 682 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 10
Buffalo came back from 15 down, at one point just a 1% chance in the fourth quarter.
Buffalo 34-31 Miami (OH)
Buffalo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #134 | #222 | −18.5✗ −14.5 | UAlbany | W 21-17 80 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Holmes 189 · Rush Burch 74 · Rec Morrow 48 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #137 | #119 | +8.5✗ −4.5 | @Florida International | L 20-33 142 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Wright 185 · Rush Shelton Jr. 34 · Rec Morrow 173 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #145 | #35 | +39.5✗ −2.5 | @Penn State | L 13-55 130 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Wright 60 · Rush McNeil Jr. 80 · Rec Morrow 31 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #145 | #191 | −27.5✗ −24.5 | Robert Morris | W 31-28 144 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Wright 140 · Rush Burch 146 · Rec Morrow 58 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #157 | #34 | +13.5✓ +10.5 | Western Michigan | L 17-20 126 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Wright 170 · Rush Burch 106 · Rec Morrow 90 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #160 | #42 | +18.5✓ +33.5 | @Toledo | W 23-8 139 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Wright 171 · Rush Burch 137 · Rec Early Jr. 77 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #134 | #144 | −6.5✓ +0.5 | Massachusetts | W 25-18 151 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Wright 134 · Rush Burch 172 · Rec Walker 45 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #126 | #149 | −3✓ +4 | Bowling Green | W 31-24 125 | 5-3 | 3-1 | Pass Wright 127 · Rush Burch 184 · Rec Walker 40 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 3 | #131 | #96 | +6.5✓ +9.5 | @Miami (OH) | W 34-31 150 | 6-3 | 4-1 | Pass Wright 358 · Rush Burch 56 · Rec Morrow 199 |
| 11 | Nov 11 | #129 | #155 | @Ball State | time TBA55% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | Central Michigan | time TBA49% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Akron | 12 pm ET67% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Buffalo, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Buffalo: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @Miami (OH) | W 34-31 | 459 | 2 | 27:24 | +0.089 | 37.5% | 1.48 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | Bowling Green | W 31-24 | 378 | 1 | 24:15 | +0.206 | 41.3% | 1.43 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Massachusetts | W 25-18 | 351 | 2 | 28:30 | -0.007 | 37.0% | 1.01 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | @Toledo | W 23-8 | 351 | 0 | 35:25 | +0.076 | 33.8% | 1.20 | |
| Oct 3 | Western Michigan | L 17-20 | 305 | 0 | 28:05 | +0.077 | 42.6% | 1.08 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | Robert Morris | W 31-28 | 442 | 3 | 39:15 | -0.035 | 44.0% | 1.10 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Penn State | L 13-55 | 173 | 2 | 28:37 | -0.117 | 19.4% | 0.99 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Florida International | L 20-33 | 308 | 3 | 29:30 | -0.030 | 24.3% | 1.80 | Most explosive |
| Sep 3 | UAlbany | W 21-17 | 340 | 1 | 31:53 | +0.152 | 39.8% | 1.15 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 345 | 1.6 | +0.046 | 35.5% | 1.25 | ||||
Buffalo's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 5. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last four.
Beyond the massive New England upset over Buffalo, a couple of under-the-radar results helped the house
Range of outcomes · Buffalo · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 8%; 7 wins 32%; 8 wins 43%; 9 wins 18%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-3
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Buffalo has one MAC title (2008) and one all-time great in Khalil Mack, and just signed the biggest naming-rights deal in conference history a year after its best season in over a decade gave way to a step back.
Buffalo produced a fifth-overall NFL draft pick and an NCAA defensive-record holder in Khalil Mack, yet the program still gets talked about as one of the MAC's anonymous programs. Fans point to…
Buffalo · Game-day weather
Typical at UB Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 89
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Buffalo hasn't won a MAC title since 2008, but produced Khalil Mack -- the program's lone Defensive Player of the Year and a fifth-overall NFL draft pick -- and just landed the largest naming-rights deal in MAC history, renaming its home Broadview Stadium, after a 2024 breakout (9-4, Bahamas Bowl champions) gave way to a 5-7 step back in 2025.
Roster and recruiting
Top 3 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
21st percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
3Buffalo's 5-7 record and lack of a MAC title since 2008 highlight the tension between its recent naming-rights milestone and the need to reclaim conference dominance.
Range of outcomes · Buffalo · 2026