Western Michigan beats Buffalo 20-17
Team pages: Western Michigan · Buffalo
Western Michigan beat Buffalo 20-17. Share this game
We had Western Michigan favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Lowry 5-yd TD run, ties it 17-17 (Q4, 6:44). Western Michigan went from 37% to 64% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Western Michigan an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Western Michigan was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.
Down to 32% in the fourth quarter, Western Michigan came back to win.
Up to 68% in the fourth quarter, then Buffalo lost it.
Western Michigan 20-17 Buffalo
Western Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Buffalo 17-20 Western MichiganBuffalo lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:44Lowry 5-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Western Michigan 37% → 64% (+27)
- 2Q4 0:32Burch 0-yd runWestern Michigan 66% → 88% (+22)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 6:44Lowry 5-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Buffalo 63% → 36% (−27)
- 2Q4 0:32Burch 0-yd runBuffalo 34% → 12% (−22)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Western Michigan -13.5), at 76% for Western Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Western Michigan scored on 4 of its 9 drives; Buffalo on 3 of its 9.
Western Michigan’s drives are teal, Buffalo’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Buffalo’s side
Buffalo’s best moment: Lowry incomplete to Nelson, turnover on downs (Q2 9:03). It lifted Buffalo’s win chance by 17 points.
Too close to call on 63% of plays.
What it cost
Western Michigan’s chance to make the playoff rose from 0% to 1%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Western Michigan 20, Buffalo 17
Buffalo covered +13.5 by 10.5. The total, 37, stayed under 46.5.
| Team totals | Western Michigan | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 327 | 305 |
| Passing | 19 of 24, 212 yds | 11 of 18, 170 yds |
| Rushing | 37 for 115 yds | 47 for 135 yds |
| First downs | 20 | 21 |
| Third down | 5 of 11 | 5 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 5 for 49 yds | 7 for 62 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:55 | 28:05 |
Western Michigan leaders
- Passing Broc Lowry 19 of 24, 212 yds
- Rushing Jalen Buckley 15 for 62 yds, 1 TD; Broc Lowry 14 for 54 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Nathan Levicki 4 for 76 yds; Aveion Chenault 5 for 56 yds
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Jason Wright 11 of 18, 170 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Messiah Burch 23 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Nino Hill 14 for 40 yds
- Receiving Chance Morrow 7 for 90 yds; Patrick Clacks III 1 for 59 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
61° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at UB Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Buffalo International Airport, 4.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Western Michigan · 2-2
Rated 24th in our preseason ratings, 34th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Buffalo · 2-2
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 157th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Buffalo
- Wk 1Wvs UAlbany21-17
- Wk 2Lat Florida International20-33
- Wk 3Lat Penn State13-55
- Wk 4Wvs Robert Morris31-28
Western Michigan
- Wk 1Lat Michigan12-13
- Wk 2Wvs Monmouth49-14
- Wk 3Wat Rice28-21
- Wk 4Lvs Boise State7-32
Power rating by week
Western Michigan is rated 11.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Buffalo’s explosive plays against Western Michigan, 52 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Buffalo’s explosive plays against Western Michigan’s defense
Buffalo offense, 33rd percentile · Western Michigan defense, 85th
Buffalo’s passing EPA against Western Michigan’s defense
Buffalo offense, 10th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 55th
Buffalo’s EPA/play against Western Michigan’s defense
Buffalo offense, 14th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 48th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Western Michigan leads the series 9-2
11 meetings since 1999 · Western Michigan has won the last 4
- 2024Western Michigan 48-41
- 2021Western Michigan 24-17
- 2017Western Michigan 71-68
- 2016Western Michigan 38-0
- 2013Buffalo 33-0
Each line is Buffalo’s chance to win through that meeting. Buffalo is 0-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Buffalo fans are in a better mood than Western Michigan fans (82nd vs 36th among FBS fanbases), even with Western Michigan favored.
Western Michigan favored by 13.5 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Western Michigan by 13.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Buffalo.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: +16.5 → +13.5 · Total: 51.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 63° at kickoff.
Western Michigan at Buffalo · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · UB Stadium, Amherst
- 63°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 9 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's nine kickoff times. At UB Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 92, against 100 at 12:45 pm.
- 11 am: 100, Ideal
- noon: 100, Ideal
- 12:45 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 2 pm: 100, Ideal
- 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 4:15 pm: 98, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
- 8 pm: 92, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Buffalo is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 49th percentile.
55% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (22-18 home, 23-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 350 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Western Michigan 71, Buffalo 68Oct 7, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Buffalo4th0-0
- Western Michigan8th0-0