Buffalo at Florida International
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Buffalo · 5-7
Picked #132 in the preseason · now #151.
Three straight losses.
L 26–31 vs Ohio #67 of 668
lost by 5 as a 7-point underdog
L 20–37 vs Miami (OH) #69 of 668
lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 19–38 @ Central Michigan #81 of 668
lost by 19 as a 2-point underdog
W 28–3 @ Bowling Green #172 of 668
won by 25 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 16–24 vs Akron #162 of 668
lost by 8 as a 10-point favorite
W 28–21 @ Massachusetts #228 of 668
won by 7 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 31–30 vs Eastern Michigan #178 of 668
won by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 17–20 vs UConn #70 of 668
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 17–21 vs Troy #82 of 668
lost by 4 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 31–28 @ Kent State #233 of 668
won by 3 as a 24-point favorite
W 45–6 vs Saint Francis #198 of 668
won by 39 as a 37.5-point favorite
L 10–23 @ Minnesota #16 of 668
lost by 13 as a 18.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Florida International · 7-6
Picked #125 in the preseason · now #102 — better than expected.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 20–57 @ UTSA #30 of 668
lost by 37 as a 7-point underdog
W 56–16 @ Sam Houston #233 of 668
won by 40 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 27–21 vs Jacksonville State #94 of 668
won by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 34–27 vs Liberty #91 of 668
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 56–30 @ Middle Tennessee #197 of 668
won by 26 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 21–28 @ Missouri State #146 of 668
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 26–45 vs Kennesaw State #107 of 668
lost by 19 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 25–6 @ Western Kentucky #126 of 668
won by 19 as a 10-point underdog
L 10–51 @ UConn #61 of 668
lost by 41 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 16–38 vs Delaware #104 of 668
lost by 22 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 38–28 vs Florida Atlantic #134 of 668
won by 10 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 0–34 @ Penn StateTop 25 #6 of 668
lost by 34 as a 41.5-point underdog
W 42–9 vs Bethune-Cookman #208 of 668
won by 33 as a 26.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Buffalo
- Pete Lembo is ahead of Maurice Linguist’s year-2 pace (1-1 vs. 0-2) — a win tonight widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Florida International
- Florida International is the Conference USA program whose 2002 program founding + Mario Cristobal era + Riccardo Silva Stadium identity define what Miami-G5-football looks like.
The series
Florida International leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · Florida International won the last meeting
- 2026Florida International 33–20
Best players
Buffalo
- Chance Morrow (WR) · 221 receiving yards
- Saveon Brown (LB) · 16 tackles
- Ronnell Davis (S) · 16 tackles
Florida International
- J.J. Kohl (QB) · 668 passing yards
- Maguire Anderson (WR) · 186 receiving yards
- Deandre Boykins (DB) · 12 tackles
The line, and the room
Buffalo fans are feeling better about their season (85th percentile) than Florida International fans are (25th) — even with Florida International favored here.
- Model · 65%
- Market · 75%
- Florida International fans · 25th
- Buffalo fans · 85th
Home −8.5 · O/U 47.5
Conditions
83°F · 6 mph wind · Heavy Rain Shower
Florida International is worth +4.0 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.
39% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (14–22 home, 10–32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 67 games — inside the ±8.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,195 miles to get here.
Buffalo 20 – Florida International 33
Called it — picked Florida International to win.
Recent games
Florida International
- Wk 1Lat South Florida9-19
Buffalo
- Wk 1Wvs UAlbany21-17
Trajectory
Florida International beat Buffalo 33-20 — exactly what the pregame pick had.