Florida International beats Buffalo 33-20
Team pages: Buffalo · Florida International
Florida International beat Buffalo 33-20. Share this game
We had Florida International favored. It won.
Next: Buffalo lost to Penn State 55-13, Sat Sep 19
Next: Florida International lost to Florida Atlantic 16-10, Sat Sep 19
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida International a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida International was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.
Favored the whole way: Florida International never fell below 75%.
Buffalo never had better than a 24% chance.
Florida International 33-20 Buffalo
Florida International wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Buffalo 20-33 Florida InternationalBuffalo lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida International -8.5), at 77% for Florida International (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Florida International scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Buffalo on 4 of its 13.
Florida International’s drives are teal, Buffalo’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Florida International’s chance to win the conference rose from 9% to 10%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Florida International 33, Buffalo 20
Florida International covered −8.5 by 4.5. The total, 53, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Buffalo | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 308 | 540 |
| Passing | 22 of 41, 249 yds | 22 of 37, 386 yds |
| Rushing | 25 for 59 yds | 39 for 154 yds |
| First downs | 13 | 22 |
| Third down | 4 of 17 | 8 of 17 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 5 for 29 yds | 5 for 41 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:30 | 38:22 |
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Jason Wright 13 of 27, 185 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Terrance Shelton Jr. 9 for 34 yds; Messiah Burch 10 for 16 yds
- Receiving Chance Morrow 11 for 173 yds, 2 TD; Trevor Wilson 2 for 32 yds
Florida International leaders
- Passing J.J. Kohl 21 of 36, 367 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Anthony Carrie 13 for 49 yds; Devonte Lyons 11 for 46 yds
- Receiving Maguire Anderson 5 for 99 yds, 2 TD; JoJo Stone 4 for 98 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the north-northwest, gusts to 13
September game-day temperatures at Pitbull Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Miami International Airport, 4.5 miles away, and Miami/kendall-tamia airport, 8.4 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Buffalo · 5-7
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 137th now.
Three straight losses.
L 26-31 vs Ohio #76 of 667
lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 20-37 vs Miami (OH) #88 of 667
lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 19-38 @ Central Michigan #93 of 667
lost by 19 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 28-3 @ Bowling Green #164 of 667
won by 25 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 16-24 vs Akron #162 of 667
lost by 8 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 28-21 @ Massachusetts #230 of 667
won by 7 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 31-30 vs Eastern Michigan #175 of 667
won by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 17-20 vs UConn #75 of 667
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 17-21 vs Troy #82 of 667
lost by 4 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 31-28 @ Kent State #225 of 667
won by 3 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 45-6 vs Saint Francis #224 of 667
won by 39 as a 37.5-point favorite
L 10-23 @ Minnesota #24 of 667
lost by 13 as a 16.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Florida International · 7-6
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 119th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 20-57 @ UTSA #46 of 667
lost by 37 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 56-16 @ Sam Houston #235 of 667
won by 40 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 27-21 vs Jacksonville State #113 of 667
won by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 34-27 vs Liberty #115 of 667
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 56-30 @ Middle Tennessee #203 of 667
won by 26 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 21-28 @ Missouri State #134 of 667
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 26-45 vs Kennesaw State #104 of 667
lost by 19 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 25-6 @ Western Kentucky #108 of 667
won by 19 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 10-51 @ UConn #63 of 667
lost by 41 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 16-38 vs Delaware #105 of 667
lost by 22 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 38-28 vs Florida Atlantic #88 of 667
won by 10 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 0-34 @ Penn StateTop 25 #7 of 667
lost by 34 as a 41.5-point underdog
W 42-9 vs Bethune-Cookman #218 of 667
won by 33 as a 26.5-point favorite
Week by week
Florida International
- Wk 1Lat South Florida9-19
Buffalo
- Wk 1Wvs UAlbany21-17
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Buffalo’s passing EPA against Florida International, 70 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Buffalo’s passing EPA against Florida International’s defense
Buffalo offense, 10th percentile · Florida International defense, 80th
Buffalo’s EPA/play against Florida International’s defense
Buffalo offense, 14th percentile · Florida International defense, 73rd
Florida International’s explosive plays against Buffalo’s defense
Florida International offense, 22nd percentile · Buffalo defense, 38th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Buffalo fans are in a better mood than Florida International fans (86th vs 30th among FBS fanbases), even with Florida International favored.
- Model · 65%
- Line · 75%
- Florida International fans · 30th
- Buffalo fans · 86th
Florida International favored by 8.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Florida International by 8.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Buffalo.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −10.5 → −8.5 · Total: 51.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 86° at kickoff.
Buffalo at Florida International · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Pitbull Stadium, Miami
- 86°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 81weather score, Mixed
- 3rdbest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Pitbull Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 89, against 81 at 6 pm.
- noon: 34, Harsh
- 1 pm: 36, Harsh
- 2 pm: 40, Harsh
- 3:30 pm: 68, Rough
- 6 pm: 81, Mixed (this game)
- 7 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 89, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Florida International is worth +4.1 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 51st percentile.
39% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (15-23 home, 10-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,195 miles to get here.