3Bowling Green: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Eddie George inherits a 4-8 losing record at Bowling Green, a program defined by its historic Doyt Perry legacy but now navigating a modern rebuild.
3Eddie George inherits a 4-8 losing record at Bowling Green, a program defined by its historic Doyt Perry legacy but now navigating a modern rebuild.
Bowling Green is the cradle that launched Urban Meyer's career and now, somehow, got a Heisman winner to come coach the Falcons himself — a MAC program suddenly more interesting than its record.
Falcon fans will remind you that Urban Meyer's whole legend started here, in their building — and they say the pundits who can't place Bowling Green on a map are the same ones who'll act surprised whe…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Tarleton State · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
Bowling Green is the MAC program whose Doyt Perry 1950s-1960s dynasty + Urban Meyer 2001-2002 ascent + Doyt Perry Stadium tradition define what historic-Ohio-MAC-football looks like.
The team returns just 8% of its roster, with significant departures in key positions like WR and S, while recruiting ranks at #75 and transfer inflow lags behind outflow.
Freddie + Frieda Falcon are patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Bowling Green collapsed 36 spots in SP+ — the 4-8 record and bottom-quintile returning production raise one question: can Eddie George reverse the slide before the program’s historic identity fades further?
Bowling Green: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The 1995 Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George begins his first season replacing Scot Loeffler's 24-29 run with just 8% production returning—restoring Doyt Perry Stadium's legacy starts from scratch.
Eddie George inherits a 4-8 losing record at Bowling Green, a program defined by its historic Doyt Perry legacy but now navigating a modern rebuild.
Eddie George inherits a 4-8 losing record at Bowling Green, a program defined by historic Ohio-MAC tradition but now struggling to reclaim its identity.
Terrel Karim Jr commits to Bowling Green
Class sitting at #94 nationally and a WR room that needed bodies — Karim Jr. is depth-first recruiting done right, but Eddie George needs this unit to actually develop before MAC defenses expose the thin roster.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
41st percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Bowling Green · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Bowling Green enters 2026 rated No. 113 in 2025 SP+ (-12.6), down 36 spots from 2024. It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 37 of 164 board posts (23%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Eddie George took over as Bowling Green's head coach, replacing Scot Loeffler. It is replaces 5-year head coach Scot Loeffler (24-29). The room hasn't reached a verdict — believers and skeptics both have specific, competing cases. The room is split — the case for and the case against are both specific.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Only 5 of 164 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Sep 5
vs Tarleton State · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
OH leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
89 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
6 games with TV coverage: 2 cable, 1 conference network, 3 streaming
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 1 afternoon, 1 primetime
71% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~51% league baseline.
5 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves; 10 of 17 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
12% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.
6 interceptions of 48 disrupted passes (42 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
80 penalties committed, 72 drawn on opponents — ceding 127 yards of field position.
732 penalty yards committed vs. 605 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Bowling Green fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
CBF head coaches are wild. They all have to have this crazy, mostly fabricated, 'live, breath, football' mindset to try and have their programs stand out from the pack.
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readBowling Green fans are down on the program, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
✓ counted We read 59 posts from Bowling Green fans this week.
“So if we don’t get a running game going we’re going to be screwed all season even in mac play”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Bowling Green · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.02 EPA/play | 9 | 6 | 94 / 151 | 62.3 | 882 | 5.8 | 4 | 5 | 113.4 | 27.9 | 3.8 | 9.6 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.2 bottom 15th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-0.5 bottom 16th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Drew Pyne's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.05 EPA/play | 10 | 5 | 33 / 66 | 50 | 473 | 7.2 | 5 | 4 | 123.1 | 50.9 | 5.0 | 7.0 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 3 | 4 | 26 / 41 | 63.4 | 245 | 6.0 | 2 | 3 | 115.1 | 28.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| 8 | 1 | 12 / 22 | 54.5 | 142 | 6.5 | 1 | 0 | 123.8 | 31.2 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · -0.05 EPA/play | 14 | 5 | 108 | 493 | 4.6 | 5 | 24 | 19.6 | 23 | 9.5 | 6.7 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight225 lb 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share3.6% bottom 11th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Austyn Dendy's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 26 | 9 | 72 | 365 | 5.1 | 0 | 34 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 15.5 | 11.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Return threatPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 45th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception17.4 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint View Cameron Pettaway's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.07 EPA/play | 4 | 9 | 84 | 342 | 4.1 | 3 | 33 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 12.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Chris McMillian's full player pageYards / carry4.4 bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.3% bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · -0.02 EPA/play | 20 | 12 | 48 | 215 | 4.5 | 0 | 15 | 13.3 | 15.2 | — | — | 11.4% (28/246) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share31.4% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaderris Roberts's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 25 | 11 | 31 | 93 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10.9 | 5.6 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete TE · +0.38 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 37 | 466 | 12.6 | 2 | 38 | 10.4 | 14.2 | 24.4% (60/246) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.58 EPA/play | 2 | 10 | 27 | 283 | 10.5 | 0 | 28 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 18.3% (45/246) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.9 bottom 36th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View RJ Garcia II's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.70 EPA/play | 11 | 6 | 13 | 183 | 14.1 | 0 | 24 | 5.6 | 5 | 7.7% (19/246) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.5 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Finn Hogan's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.55 EPA/play | 88 | 10 | 19 | 182 | 9.6 | 5 | 38 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 10.6% (26/246) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.4 93th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate26.3% 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacob Harris's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.15 EPA/play | 1 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 | 21 | 3.4 | 2.3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 18 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 3.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 11 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 66th percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 41st, now back up to 81st | |||||||
| Power Rusher | 5 | 11 | 26 | 10 | 4.5 | 4 | 2 |
Power RusherBull-rushes through contact, winning with size and length at the point of attack. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 10 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Eriq George's full player pageTFL rate17.3% bottom 42th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 38 | 9 | 25 | 6 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Dierre Kelly's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 45 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 4th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bam Booker's full player page | |||||||
| 11 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 12 | 119 | 65 | 54 | 17.5 #5 FBS | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume119 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate14.7% 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View Gideon Lampron's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 12 | 7 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.1% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume37 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caden Marshall's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 7 | 10 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 4 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.8% 58th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate6.8% 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View David Afogho's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 3 | 3 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate22.2% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dorian Pringle's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume22 bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.9% 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Andrew Hines III's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 23 | 10 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 5.5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume20 bottom 14th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate25.0% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 32nd percentile to the 69th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| 17 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | — | 12 | 80 | 5 | 1 | 3.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume80 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kal-El Pascal's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 22 | 12 | 57 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 8 | 12 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume56 97th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jalen Mcclendon's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 14 | 10 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.1% bottom 29th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keyon Washington's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Darius Lorfils's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.4% bottom 27th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Preston EstoEsta's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 10 | 8 | 22 | 13 #2 FBS | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate59.1% 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View JoJo Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 26 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josira Andrews's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapon | 14 | 12 | 19/22 | 86.4 | 26/26 | 83 | 56 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 19 | 12 | 59 | 2391 | 40.5 | 58 | 18 | 6 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 26 | 9 | 12 | 377 | 31.4 | 1 | 98 |
| Satellite Back · -0.02 EPA/play | 20 | 12 | 9 | 251 | 27.9 | 0 | 65 |
| -0.15 EPA/play | 1 | 9 | 7 | 156 | 22.3 | 0 | 31 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.22 EPA/play | 5 | 9 | 17 | 109 | 6.4 | 0 | 25 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+12 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #126 | #203 | -21.5 | Lafayette | W 26–7 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #147 | #39 | +22.5 | @Cincinnati | L 20–34 124 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #122 | #44 | +6.5 | Liberty | W 23–13 131 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #116 | #32 | +25.5 | @Louisville | L 17–40 112 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #115 | #66 | +7.5 | @Ohio | L 20–35 126 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #121 | #36 | +10.5 | Toledo | W 28–23 125 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #110 | #129 | -3.5 | Central Michigan | L 6–27 112 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #134 | #227 | -7.5 | @Kent State | L 21–24 129 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #146 | #141 | -2.5 | Buffalo | L 3–28 123 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #172 | #163 | +3 | @Eastern Michigan | L 21–27 126 | 3-7 | 1-5 |
| 13 | Nov 19 | #184 | #173 | -2 | Akron | L 16–19 136 | 3-8 | 1-6 |
| 14 | Nov 25 | #194 | #262 | -14.5 | @Massachusetts | W 45–14 121 | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 | @Massachusetts | W 45–14 | 406 | 0 | 32:35 | +0.406 | 44.8% | 139.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 19 | Akron | L 16–19 | 272 | 2 | 34:12 | -0.162 | 31.5% | 105.4% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | @Eastern Michigan | L 21–27 | 259 | 1 | 26:15 | -0.069 | 33.3% | 142.2% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | Buffalo | L 3–28 | 216 | 2 | 34:00 | -0.278 | 26.3% | 124.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | @Kent State | L 21–24 | 379 | 0 | 36:52 | +0.214 | 40.0% | 129.5% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | Central Michigan | L 6–27 | 310 | 2 | 28:40 | +0.063 | 34.4% | 122.9% | |
| Oct 11 | Toledo | W 28–23 | 226 | 1 | 25:52 | +0.037 | 20.8% | 219.1% | Most explosive |
| Sep 27 | @Ohio | L 20–35 | 350 | 4 | 30:31 | -0.078 | 45.3% | 98.1% | Best success rate |
| Sep 20 | @Louisville | L 17–40 | 321 | 2 | 26:08 | +0.073 | 38.8% | 140.4% | |
| Sep 13 | Liberty | W 23–13 | 304 | 0 | 31:09 | +0.065 | 33.3% | 134.1% | |
| Sep 6 | @Cincinnati | L 20–34 | 372 | 0 | 37:11 | +0.135 | 42.9% | 115.9% | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 28 | Lafayette | W 26–7 | 266 | 0 | 32:20 | -0.026 | 39.3% | 79.5% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (12 games) | 307 | 1.2 | +0.032 | 35.9% | 129.3% | ||||
Bowling Green fields a struggling run-heavy, explosive, big-play offense behind a solid, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
2nd percentile quality, 98th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 37th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 14th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
10th percentile success on standard downs, 17th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 18th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 7th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.03; 20th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.06 raw vs. 0.00 adjusted.
Bowling Green reads strongest in explosive plays (top 35%) and rushing epa allowed (top 37%); the crux lives in epa / play, where Bowling Green sits at the 6th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Bowling Green
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Bowling Green · 2018-present
41% home win rate vs 34% on the road. margin runs +7.2 better at home. Doyt L. Perry Stadium seats 24,000, averaging 58% full (13,976 attendance, 23 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Austyn Dendy and Chris McMillian split the carries (108/190 vs 82/190) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
RJ Garcia II (WR) and Jyrin Johnson (TE) split the targets (44/102 vs 58/102) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 20 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 19 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Bowling Green’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.9% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 116-play sample) — mid-pack, 17 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
59°F average kickoff temp; 9% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 65 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Bowling Green's 2014–2025 record is 58-86. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1947 · 72 seasons · .535 win rate
Urban Meyer's head-coaching career started in Doyt Perry Stadium. Now a 1995 Heisman winner is the one trying to make the Falcons matter again — and the only MAC program in the sport right now with a trophy in its coach's past.
Bowling Green's football identity is built less on what it has won than on the careers it has launched. Doyt Perry's name is on the stadium for a reason: a 77-11-5 run from 1955 to 1964, a 1959 team that finished No. 20 in the AP poll, and a standard that still defines what 'good' means in northwest Ohio. Then Urban Meyer arrived in 2001 for his first head-coaching job, went 17-6 across two seasons, and departed for Utah, Florida, and Ohio State. The Falcons gave the sport one of its most consequential careers, absorbed none of the trophies, and kept playing MAC football.
Eddie George — the 1995 Heisman winner from Ohio State — is now the head coach, which is either the best story in the MAC or a marquee name attached to a 4-8 debut. George's first season in Bowling Green went exactly as transition seasons go: a transfer-heavy roster, a 2-6 conference record, and a missed bowl. The bet the program is making entering year two is that a Heisman winner changes recruiting gravity — that players who'd never have taken the Bowling Green call now do, because the man on the other end won the sport's most famous individual award and played at the highest level.
The 2026 season will reveal whether the George hire is a real lever or a marquee name without traction. The Doyt standard is a MAC championship and bowl relevance — Bowling Green last won the conference in 2015 under Dino Babers before he left for Syracuse. Year two is when Falcon fans start to judge whether the name translates, or whether the transition year stretches into a tenure.
MAC-flavored developmental football — the program's lineage runs through tempo and scoring, a development-lab identity that Dino Babers perfected before leaving. George's system is still taking shape, leaning on portal turnover and a physical ground-game base. The measure of the program has always been how it develops players no one recruited highly and turns them into MAC contributors; the Heisman coach inherits that framework.
Bowling Green 2016–2025. Climbing +1.2 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.18 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Bowling Green: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Mid-American Standing · 2025
Bowling Green is 11th of 13 in the Mid-American at 2-6. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Michigan | 7-1 |
| 2 | Ohio | 5-2 |
| 3 | Toledo | 5-2 |
| 4 | Central Michigan | 5-3 |
| 5 | Miami (OH) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Akron | 4-4 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 4-4 |
| 8 | Ball State | 3-4 |
| 9 | Kent State | 3-4 |
| 10 | Eastern Michigan | 2-5 |
| 11 | Bowling Green | 2-6 |
| 12 | Sacramento State | 0-0 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | 0-7 |
Coaching Era · Bowling Green
Eddie George in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1955
Doyt Perry's 1955-1964 tenure produced the program's all-time peak — multiple MAC championships, 1959 9-0 + #20 final AP, undefeated seasons. Perry's tenure pre-dated MAC FBS-level competitive cycles + made BG a regional powerhouse. The stadium bears his name as permanent program identity.
since 2001
Urban Meyer's 2001-2002 tenure — his first head-coach job before Utah + Florida + Ohio State + retirement — produced consecutive 8-3 + 9-3 seasons + multiple bowl appearances. Meyer's BG era is the launchpad of his career; the coaching-tree heritage gives BG permanent national-narrative weight.
since 1923
'Ay Ziggy Zoomba' — Bowling Green's fight song dating to 1923 — is one of CFB's more-distinctive fight songs. The nonsense-syllables hook + the falcon-themed lyrics + the post-touchdown ritual create a permanent fan identity unique among MAC programs.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Perry's 9-0 team finishes ranked No. 20 in the AP poll
2001
Urban Meyer's first head-coaching season begins a career that ends in national titles
Dino Babers' high-scoring Falcons win the league title before he leaves for Syracuse
Moment of the Year · Bowling Green · 2025
Week 1 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — loss 31-38 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2023–20252 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Greg Nosal — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Joe Bowden — not yet reflected in on-field data.
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