The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Toledo 13%, Massachusetts 58%, Kent State 68%
Win out 5% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
Bowling Green's chance to win each game left, from our model: Kent State 68%, Toledo 13%, Massachusetts 58%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 7th in the Mid-American · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jay Kastantin 1,567 · Rushing Austyn Dendy 371 · Receiving Winn Sharp 314 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #117 | #95 | −1.5✗ −8.5 | Tarleton State | L 13-20 124 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Kastantin 262 · Rush Dendy 60 · Rec Scoby 102 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #121 | #37 | +30.5✗ −18.5 | @Nebraska | L 7-56 114 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Kastantin 84 · Rush Amachree 53 · Rec Kemp 19 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #135 | #138 | +22.5✗ −25.5 | @Iowa State | L 7-55 116 Loud | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Kastantin 97 · Rush Baldwin 38 · Rec Sharp 59 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #152 | #57 | +17.5✓ +9.5 | South Florida | L 6-14 114 | 0-4 | 0-0 | Pass Kastantin 122 · Rush Dendy 48 · Rec Sharp 56 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #154 | #85 | +10.5✓ +14.5 | @Miami (OH) | W 24-20 119 | 1-4 | 1-0 | Pass Kastantin 305 · Rush Kemp 25 · Rec Ridley 95 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #153 | #180 | −9.5✓ +18.5 | Sacramento State | W 38-10 121 | 2-4 | 2-0 | Pass Kastantin 116 · Rush Dendy 86 · Rec Scoby 70 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #136 | #166 | −6✗ −7 | Ball State | L 31-32 125 | 2-5 | 2-1 | Pass Kastantin 215 · Rush Dendy 61 · Rec Ridley 84 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #149 | #126 | +3✗ −4 | @Buffalo | L 24-31 125 | 2-6 | 2-2 | Pass Kastantin 217 · Rush Dendy 39 · Rec Sharp 50 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #156 | #44 | +14✓ +1 | @Western Michigan | L 10-23 119 | 2-7 | 2-3 | Pass Kastantin 149 · Rush Amachree 61 · Rec Jacon-Duffy 41 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 10 | #144 | #186 | Kent State | 7 pm ET · ESPNU68% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | @Toledo | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN213% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Massachusetts | 12 pm ET58% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Bowling Green, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Bowling Green: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Western Michigan | L 10-23 | 274 | 3 | 32:18 | -0.155 | 30.2% | 1.41 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | @Buffalo | L 24-31 | 341 | 2 | 35:45 | +0.156 | 46.9% | 1.12 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Ball State | L 31-32 | 313 | 1 | 29:45 | +0.116 | 44.1% | 1.19 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | Sacramento State | W 38-10 | 355 | 1 | 31:10 | +0.154 | 43.3% | 1.35 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Miami (OH) | W 24-20 | 367 | 0 | 27:18 | +0.150 | 50.0% | 1.05 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | South Florida | L 6-14 | 207 | 0 | 32:34 | -0.210 | 31.7% | 0.89 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Iowa State | L 7-55 | 186 | 2 | 27:11 | -0.164 | 30.2% | 1.05 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | @Nebraska | L 7-56 | 169 | 2 | 28:19 | +0.037 | 32.0% | 1.14 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 5 | Tarleton State | L 13-20 | 366 | 2 | 34:53 | +0.025 | 39.4% | 0.98 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 286 | 1.4 | +0.012 | 38.6% | 1.13 | ||||
Bowling Green's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 5. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
We’re competing, but we’re not making enough plays for us to get the results that we’re looking for
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Eddie George inherits a 4-8 losing record at Bowling Green, a program defined by historic Ohio-MAC tradition but now struggling to reclaim its identity.
Statusbackground
Eddie George inherits a 4-8 losing record at Bowling Green, where historic Ohio-MAC football tradition clashes with a program in need of reinvention.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Bowling Green · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 12%; 3 wins 43%; 4 wins 40%; 5 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 39 of 760 board posts (5%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 5 of 760 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Bowling Green is the cradle that launched Urban Meyer's career and now, somehow, got a Heisman winner to come coach the Falcons himself — a MAC program suddenly more interesting than its record.
Falcon fans will remind you that Urban Meyer's whole legend started here, in their building — and they say the pundits who can't place Bowling Green on a map are the same ones who'll act surprised…
Bowling Green · Game-day weather
Typical at Doyt L. Perry Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 88
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 107 at noon, 108 at 3:30 pm, 109 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Bowling Green is the MAC program whose Doyt Perry 1950s-1960s dynasty + Urban Meyer 2001-2002 ascent + Doyt Perry Stadium tradition define what historic-Ohio-MAC-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2020
91st percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
4Eddie George inherits a 4-8 losing record at Bowling Green, a program defined by its historic Doyt Perry legacy but now navigating a modern rebuild.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Bowling Green · 2026