Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

Mid-American

MACtion

Western Michigan went 10-4 with the 104th recruiting class. Toledo holds an SP+ of #13. Can either program make the November MACtion run that earns a genuinely watched bowl bid — or does the MAC's talent ceiling cap how far they can go when they finally get a committee that's paying attention?

Mid-American is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#11overall

#11in FBS

+3.1RR50

+7.1upper strength

13teams

0top-25 teams

Mid-American, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — last season final records.

Team Power Record RR50

Toledo

0-0 +8.2

Miami (OH)

0-0 +7.3

Western Michigan

0-0 +7.2

Ohio

0-0 +6.5

Buffalo

0-0 +3.2

Sacramento State

0-0 +2.1

Central Michigan

0-0 +1.9

Eastern Michigan

0-0 +0.1

Akron

0-0 -0.6

Bowling Green

0-0 -0.7

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

MACtion

The MAC sent three programs to a combined 27-13 in 2025 with average recruiting ranks above #100: Western Michigan went 10-4 with the 104th recruiting class (+82 coaching gap), Ohio went 9-4 with the 121st class (+81), and Toledo went 8-5 with the 73rd class (+60). The same conference where Northern Illinois went 3-9 with a #84 recruiting class. MACtion's identity has always been "more competitive than the rankings say" — the 2025 results proved that again.

0 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. The gap between the top and bottom is narrow — a sign of genuine parity.

The question heading into 2026.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The Conference Leader

Toledo Holds the MAC's Highest SP+ Rating at #13

Toledo enters 2026 with the MAC's highest SP+ ranking (#13 nationally) and a +60 coaching premium on a #73 recruiting class. They went 8-5 in 2025, which undersells how good they are by the power metrics. Three MAC titles, a win over Penn State in 2016, and an NFL draft pipeline that starts at the offensive line — Toledo's formula doesn't change and it keeps working. The Tuesday night game that ends with Toledo covering is almost always the one worth watching.

Why it matters →

The Best Record

Western Michigan Went 10-4 With the 104th Recruiting Class

Western Michigan's coaching premium is +82 — a #104 recruiting rank producing an SP+ of #22 and a 10-4 record in 2025. In a conference where most programs overperform, Western Michigan overperformed the most. Ten wins from Kalamazoo, Michigan with a class that ranked in the bottom half of FBS. The program nobody outside the MAC watches closely produced results that deserve national attention.

Why it matters →

The Other Side

NIU Went 3-9 With a Better Recruiting Class Than Toledo's

Northern Illinois went 3-9 in 2025 with a #84 recruiting class — a -30 coaching gap that is the conference's worst. The program that beat Iowa in 2013 and built the MAC's most famous single-game moment holds the second-worst SP+ ranking in the conference entering 2026. Ball State went 4-8 at sp#126. The MAC's MACtion identity runs through programs that overperform — and NIU is currently the argument for why coaching matters more than recruiting.

Why it matters →

Active arcs our read

Active2wk ago

2026 Florida International Panthers Fg Attempt Stats & Leaders - NCAA Colleg

Can Howard sustain its rushing dominance into the season?

Akron

Developing7wk ago

Michigan lands 4-star edge Ifeanyi Emedobi over Minnesota

How will these roster changes impact the Michigan vs. Ohio State rivalry?

Ohio

Developing6wk ago

Ohio State to induct Jim Tressel into Ring of Honor

Which other Buckeyes should follow Tressel into the Ring of Honor?

Ohio

Developing5wk ago

Toledo basketball to face Louisiana Tech in MAC-SBC Challenge opener

Can Toledo start the season strong against Louisiana Tech?

Toledo

Developing7wk ago

Cincinnati and Miami (OH) set to play first game at TQL Stadium

How will the historic rivalry unfold in its new stadium setting?

Miami (OH)

All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 397 mentions

17% positive 64% neutral 19% negative

Buffalo

104

→ neutral

Western Michigan

↓ negative

Massachusetts

→ neutral

Ohio

↑ positive

Sacramento State

→ neutral

Miami (OH)

↓ negative

Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Mid-American program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 71st percentile.

Bullish+4

Bullish+30

Bullish+67

Bullish+22

Bullish–

Leaning+6

Leaning+13

Leaning-42

Leaning-51

Leaning+8

Mixed-28

Souring-13

Souring-39

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Mid-American teams, 13 programs.

Coaching premium ↑

Toledo

+67

Western

+47

Miami

+44

Ohio

+35

Sacramento

+19

Underperforming ↓

Bowling

-60

Massachusetts

-39

Kent

-39

Ball

-29

Eastern

-24

Standings

2026 final — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#	Team	Record	RR50	Resume
1	Toledo National Program II#49	0-0	+8.2	+82.0
2	Miami (OH)Regional Program I#81	0-0	+7.3	+79.2
3	Western Michigan Regional Program II#88	0-0	+7.2	+78.2
4	Ohio Regional Program I#79	0-0	+6.5	+75.4
5	Buffalo Regional Program IV#113	0-0	+3.2	+66.4
6	Sacramento State Regional Program V#127	0-0	+2.1	+63.0
7	Central Michigan Regional Program IV#110	0-0	+1.9	+62.6
8	Eastern Michigan Regional Program V#125	0-0	+0.1	+52.2
9	Akron Regional Program V#133	0-0	-0.6	+50.2
10	Bowling Green Regional Program IV#117	0-0	-0.7	+49.1
11	Ball State Regional Program V#132	0-0	-1.5	+44.3
12	Massachusetts Regional Program VI#136	0-0	-3.3	+31.5
13	Kent State Regional Program VI#138	0-0	-4.2	+24.2

Projected Standings · Mid-American · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	Toledo	5–3	+6.2	5.2	3	16	41	70	89	98	✓	✓
2	Miami (OH)	5–3	+5.3	5.1	2	14	39	68	88	97	✓	✓
3	Western Michigan	5–3	+5.2	4.9	2	12	35	64	86	97	✓	✓
Challengers
4	Ohio	5–3	+4.4	4.9	2	11	33	62	84	96	99	✓
5	Sacramento State	4–4	+0.1	4.2	1	5	18	42	70	89	98	✓
6	Buffalo	4–4	+1.2	4.2		4	16	40	68	89	98	✓
The Field
7	Central Michigan	4–4	-0.1	3.8		2	11	30	58	82	95	99
8	Eastern Michigan	4–4	-1.9	3.6		2	8	26	53	79	94	99
9	Akron	3–5	-2.6	3.5		1	7	23	49	76	93	99
10	Bowling Green	3–5	-2.7	3.5		1	6	22	49	76	94	99
Rebuilding
11	Ball State	3–5	-3.5	3.4		1	7	21	47	74	92	99
12	Massachusetts	3–5	-5.3	3.0			3	13	35	64	87	98
13	Kent State	3–5	-6.2	2.8			2	10	29	57	84	97

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2025 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
Toledo	+0.21	44.5%	+1.22	+0.08	66.9	45.9%	Lockdown defense
Miami (OH)	+0.09	39.0%	+1.20	-0.08	61.4	42.8%	Balanced
Western Michigan	+0.10	42.0%	+1.09	-0.05	66.0	33.0%	No explosive plays
Ohio	+0.20	44.5%	+1.22	-0.12	66.5	36.1%	Balanced
Buffalo	+0.08	39.0%	+1.18	-0.11	68.7	49.9%	No explosive plays
Sacramento State	+0.27	41.8%	+1.40	-0.12	0.0	0.0%	Grind-it-out
Central Michigan	+0.13	40.3%	+1.19	-0.08	60.9	32.0%	Balanced
Eastern Michigan	+0.20	42.7%	+1.25	-0.24	66.1	50.9%	Defense is the problem
Akron	+0.06	39.2%	+1.19	-0.15	69.5	48.4%	Balanced
Bowling Green	+0.03	35.9%	+1.29	-0.15	63.2	37.7%	Can't sustain drives
Ball State	-0.00	32.1%	+1.31	-0.18	60.8	38.0%	Can't sustain drives
Massachusetts	-0.04	33.0%	+1.18	-0.27	63.9	54.1%	Can't sustain drives
Kent State	+0.06	34.5%	+1.38	-0.19	57.3	42.6%	Can't sustain drives

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2025 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Mid-American's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Nadame TuckerEDGE	Western Michigan	#1 of 420
2	Michael HeldmanEDGE	Central Michigan	#6 of 420
3	Adam TrickLB	Miami (OH)	#9 of 583
4	Martez PoynterIDL	Toledo	#7 of 330
5	Eli BlakeyS	Miami (OH)	#6 of 544
6	Jordan KwiatkowskiLB	Central Michigan	#16 of 583
7	CJ YoungS	Kent State	#13 of 544
8	Silas WaltersS	Miami (OH)	#15 of 544
9	Junior VanderossWR	Toledo	#11 of 485
10	Nathan VoorhisEDGE	Ball State	#23 of 420

Where Mid-American stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC

+11.4

2 B10 Big Ten

+10.1

3 IND FBS Independents

+9.4

4 B12 Big 12

+8.3

5 ACC ACC

+8.2

6 P12 Pac-12

+5.3

7 AAC American Athletic

+5.3

8 MW Mountain West

+4.0

9 SB Sun Belt

+3.7

10 CUSA Conference USA

+3.6

Mid-American title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	Western Michigan	+300
2	Miami (OH)	+340
3	Toledo	+360
4	Ohio	+600
5	Central Michigan	+700
6	Eastern Michigan	+800
7	Bowling Green	+1300
8	Buffalo	+1300
9	Akron	+1800
10	Kent State	+3000