Northern Illinois3-94Thomas Hammock enters his 6th season at Northern Illinois with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether the program can reclaim its G5-bowl identity amid shifting fanbase expectations.
Northern Illinois walked into South Bend in 2024 as a 28-point underdog and beat No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14 — the program's first win ever over a top-10 team — and is taking that swagger to the Mountain West after one last 3-9 season in the MAC.
DeKalb walked into one of the sport's cathedrals as a four-touchdown underdog and walked out with the win — and the national story was the giant who lost, not the Huskies who won. The fanbase keeps th…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Iowa · Sat Sep 5 · 20:15 UTC
Northern Illinois is the MAC program whose 2012 12-1 Orange Bowl appearance + Jordan Lynch Heisman finalist define what G5-can-make-BCS-bowl looks like.
With a recruiting rank of #82 and heavy portal losses, Northern Illinois must rely on returning players to achieve a 7-6 season. The team's transfer profile indicates a net exporter status with 22 outgoing transfers compared to 6 incoming.
Mission the Husky is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Northern Illinois collapsed 44 spots in SP+ — the 3-9 record and #125 talent rank highlight a steep drop, and Thomas Hammock's 6th season faces the challenge of reversing a program's fading G5-bowl legacy.
Rob Harley inherits a 3-9 roster and a program that hasn't reached a BCS bowl since 2012 — the talent rank and churn count mean this is a rebuild, not a return to glory.
Thomas Hammock enters his 6th season at Northern Illinois with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether the program can reclaim its G5-bowl identity amid shifting fanbase expectations.
DeAree Rogers does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
Rob Harley inherits a 3-9 losing record at Northern Illinois, a program whose last BCS-bowl appearance in 2012 defines what G5-can-make-BCS-bowl looks like.
Northern Illinois collapsed 44 spots in SP+ — the 3-9 record under Hammock is the worst since Lynch’s Heisman era, threatening the bowl-or-bust identity.
Thomas Hammock enters his sixth season with a 3-9 losing record, raising questions about whether a coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate a program still defined by its 2012 Orange Bowl run.
Will Liddell commits to Northern Illinois
WR room needed bodies and Hammock went to Georgia to find one — Liddell out of Discovery fills a depth gap in a class already ranked 84th nationally, which is the kind of quiet infrastructure work a rebuild runs on.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Northern Illinois · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Northern Illinois enters 2026 rated No. 128 in 2025 SP+ (-16.7), down 44 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The coverage is thin. Quiet preseasons end two ways.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 31 of 79 board posts (39%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rob Harley took over as Northern Illinois's head coach, replacing Thomas Hammock. It is replaces 6-year head coach Thomas Hammock (28-39). The hire has receded from the front page. The roster and recruiting pipeline are the real measure now. The discourse has moved on; what's left is the quiet work of building something.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Opens Sep 5
vs Iowa · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
IN leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 15 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
114 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. IL leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
6 games with TV coverage: 2 ESPN, 1 cable, 2 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 1 afternoon, 4 primetime
Recovering 29% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
2 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves; 4 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Converting 24% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
9 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (29 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 52 penalties committed vs. 69 drawn on opponents, a 101-yard edge.
456 penalty yards committed vs. 557 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 3 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Northern Illinois fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
I reject the premise that passage of this is “almost assured.” If you think it is, you don’t know much about Washington.
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readNorthern Illinois fans are down on the program, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 67 posts from Northern Illinois fans this week.
Fanbase Health Index · Northern Illinois · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.05 EPA/play | 15 | 7 | 78 / 130 | 60 | 689 | 5.3 | 4 | 3 | 110.1 | 30.4 | 4.1 | 7.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt5.7 bottom 6th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage29.3% 75th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Josh Holst's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · -0.08 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 40 / 87 | 46.0 | 384 | 4.4 | 3 | 3 | 87.5 | 25.4 | 3.2 | 4.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt3.9 bottom 1th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %43.8% bottom 1th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brady Davidson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.07 EPA/play | 14 | 5 | 9 / 21 | 42.9 | 105 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.6 | 47.2 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.06 EPA/play | 10 | 12 | 196 | 875 #66 FBS | 4.5 | 5 | 45 | 24.2 | 17.2 | 15.1 | 9.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.5 bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception2.0 bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chavon Wright's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.07 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 124 | 690 | 5.6 | 4 | 80 | 15.3 | 18.4 | 24.6 | 10.7 | 12.0% (23/192) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.7 63th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception6.1 bottom 32th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Telly Johnson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.02 EPA/play | 21 | 7 | 33 | 189 | 5.7 | 1 | 76 | 1.2 | 7.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.65 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 46 | 506 | 11 | 3 | 50 | 14.6 | 15.5 | 31.8% (61/192) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume46 73th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View DeAree Rogers's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.13 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 12 | 145 | 12.1 | 1 | 31 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 12.5% (24/192) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Gary Givens III's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.82 EPA/play | 3 | 3 | 9 | 134 | 14.9 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 4.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 9 | 6 | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 | 19 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 10.4% (20/192) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.06 EPA/play | 80 | 6 | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 1 | 17 | 2.5 | 3.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.08 EPA/play | — | 5 | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 | 13 | 4.6 | 6.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pressure Merchant | 97 | 8 | 33 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
Pressure MerchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 23 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 90th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 87th percentile among FBS EDGEs to the 29th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 10 | 11 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 14th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 68th | |||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 9 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.3% bottom 7th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 23rd percentile among FBS EDGEs, up from the 53rd | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 6 | 11 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Dasean Dixon's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 16 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Pressure MerchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 23 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 76th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jay'shon Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 95 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.8% bottom 23th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Lance Ingold's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | — | 8 | 16 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.1% bottom 11th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Alvin Gulley Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.0% bottom 31th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Reggie Jean's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | 11 | 127 | 65 | 62 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume127 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.8% bottom 26th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 88th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 17th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 17 | 11 | 76 | 34 | 42 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Filip Maciorowski's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 23 | 10 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Marc Pretto's full player page | |||||||||
| 25 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 57 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 22 | 11 | 74 | 2 | 3 #56 FBS | 1 | 0.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume74 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 3 | 11 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume57 98th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 82nd percentile to the 50th among FBS CBs | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 11 | 57 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Muhammed Jammeh's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.3% bottom 27th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 26th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 0th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 33 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Taylor Powell's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 10 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Donte Harrison's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 26 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.3% 76th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View James Finley's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 9 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball Hawk· Return threatReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. a house-call threat every time he fields it 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate23.1% 84th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dev'ion Reynolds's full player page | |||||||
| 24 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 60 | 11 | 10/12 | 83.3 | 20/21 | 50 | 41 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 36 | 7 | 30 | 1310 | 43.7 | 61 | 6 | 1 |
| Steady | 90 | 5 | 25 | 1057 | 42.3 | 54 | 7 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball Hawk | 9 | 10 | 17 | 404 | 23.8 | 1 | 96 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.65 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 | 19 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+13 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #111 | #177 | -13.5 | Holy Cross | W 19–17 124 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 5 | #133 | #117 | +16.5 | @Maryland | L 9–20 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #113 | #73 | +24.5 | @Mississippi State | L 10–38 120 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #121 | #75 | +1.5 | San Diego State | L 3–6 121 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #128 | #56 | +4.5 | Miami (OH) | L 14–25 127 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #133 | #178 | -1.5 | @Eastern Michigan | L 10–16 134 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #146 | #74 | +11.5 | @Ohio | L 21–48 131 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #161 | #211 | -6.5 | Ball State | W 21–7 134 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| 11 | Nov 6 | #171 | #55 | +15.5 | @Toledo | L 3–42 127 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| 12 | Nov 13 | #203 | #248 | -9.5 | @Massachusetts | W 45–3 130 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| 13 | Nov 19 | #180 | #71 | +7 | Western Michigan | L 19–35 126 | 3-8 | 0-0 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #186 | #210 | -5.5 | Kent State | L 31–35 126 | 3-9 | 0-0 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28 | Kent State | L 31–35 | 334 | 1 | 31:51 | +0.158 | 55.1% | 90.8% | Best success rate |
| Nov 19 | Western Michigan | L 19–35 | 252 | 0 | 26:11 | +0.134 | 27.6% | 172.2% | Most explosive |
| Nov 13 | @Massachusetts | W 45–3 | 433 | 0 | 33:41 | +0.415 | 48.5% | 130.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 6 | @Toledo | L 3–42 | 203 | 0 | 29:42 | -0.308 | 22.4% | 108.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 25 | Ball State | W 21–7 | 370 | 3 | 30:30 | +0.010 | 44.6% | 98.5% | |
| Oct 18 | @Ohio | L 21–48 | 293 | 1 | 24:10 | +0.001 | 39.3% | 124.4% | |
| Oct 11 | @Eastern Michigan | L 10–16 | 310 | 1 | 29:54 | +0.025 | 29.2% | 142.2% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | Miami (OH) | L 14–25 | 220 | 2 | 20:54 | +0.024 | 29.4% | 157.8% | |
| Sep 27 | San Diego State | L 3–6 | 170 | 1 | 28:42 | -0.122 | 24.6% | 97.7% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Mississippi State | L 10–38 | 268 | 1 | 28:05 | +0.047 | 28.0% | 151.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 5 | @Maryland | L 9–20 | 271 | 0 | 33:35 | +0.103 | 28.6% | 142.4% | |
| Aug 30 | Holy Cross | W 19–17 | 289 | 1 | 33:26 | +0.047 | 34.7% | 127.1% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (12 games) | 284 | 0.9 | +0.045 | 34.3% | 128.6% | ||||
Northern Illinois fields a struggling run-heavy offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
8th percentile quality, 92nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 1st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 2nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
9th percentile success on standard downs, 5th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 34th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 3rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.04; 31st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.07 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Northern Illinois reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 21%) and passing epa allowed (top 24%); the crux lives in success rate, where Northern Illinois sits at the 3rd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Northern Illinois
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Northern Illinois · 2018-present
46% home win rate vs 40% on the road. margin runs +4.6 better at home. Huskie Stadium seats 23,595, averaging 43% full (10,031 attendance, 24 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Chavon Wright and Telly Johnson Jr. split the carries (189/311 vs 122/311) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Telly Johnson Jr. owns the receiving work.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
DeAree Rogers (WR) and Jake Appleget (TE) split the targets (59/69 vs 10/69) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 11 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 11 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Northern Illinois’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 105-play sample) — mid-pack, 59 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
57°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.
Based on 65 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Northern Illinois's 2014–2025 record is 75-73. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1966 · 60 seasons · .476 win rate
Northern Illinois walked into South Bend as a 28-point underdog in 2024 and beat No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14 — the program's first win over a top-10 team, ever. Then it went 3-9. Now it's in a new conference. The Huskies carry all of that into the Mountain West.
The 2012 season is the foundational text. A MAC team from DeKalb went 12-1, won the conference, and earned an Orange Bowl bid — forcing the BCS, college football's most aggressively guarded closed system, to seat a mid-major at the table. Jordan Lynch ran the triple option to a Heisman-finalist finish in 2013, the highest any MAC player has ever placed in the voting. Two more MAC titles followed in 2018 and 2021. Northern Illinois built its identity on one recurring proof: any given Saturday, against any opponent, DeKalb can beat you. The Notre Dame win in 2024 — as a four-touchdown underdog, in South Bend — was the latest data point in that argument.
The problem is what came after. The 2024 season that contained that upset ended 8-5. The 2025 season ended 3-9 (2-6 MAC), Thomas Hammock's seventh and final MAC campaign before the program's departure to the Mountain West as a football-only member in 2026. The Huskies are leaving the MAC having proven they can beat anybody once and having not yet proven they can sustain anything. The internal fracture between the giant-killer romanticism and the build-a-floor pragmatism has never been sharper.
The Mountain West move is the 2026 story. NIU enters a new conference without the comfort of a decade of MAC relationships, competing against programs with deeper resources on the West Coast and in the Mountain time zone. Hammock, an alum, carries the 'Forward, Together Forward' identity into the new league. The question the season will answer is whether the Huskies can translate their upset-pedigree program into conference wins against opponents who have never heard of DeKalb — and whether the scalps in the record book eventually become a pattern.
Physical, opportunistic, and built around the upset-frame — Northern Illinois has never been the most talented team in any building it walks into, and the program's coaching philosophy reflects that. Hammock runs a pro-style base offense with a mobile quarterback option, and the defense is the program's identity unit: assignment-sound, gap-disciplined, designed to hold games close and force the opponent into the error that decides it. The 'Forward, Together Forward' motto, adopted after the 2008 campus shooting, runs deeper than football — it is the institutional DNA of a program that has treated persistence as a value.
Northern Illinois 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.05 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
Northern Illinois: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Mountain West Standing · 2025
Northern Illinois is 9th of 10 in the Mountain West at 0-0. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 4-1 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 3-1 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 2-2 |
| 4 | Nevada | 2-2 |
| 5 | Air Force | 2-3 |
| 6 | San José State | 2-3 |
| 7 | Wyoming | 1-4 |
| 8 | North Dakota State | 0-0 |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · Northern Illinois
Rob Harley took over from Thomas Hammock for the 2026 season.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2012
NIU became the first MAC program to make a BCS bowl game in 2012 — 12-1 regular season + MAC championship + Orange Bowl invitation. The Orange Bowl loss (Florida State 31-10) didn't dim the achievement; the MAC-to-Orange-Bowl ascent broke a structural CFB ceiling. The 2012 run is permanent G5 ascent canon.
since 2013
Jordan Lynch's 2013 12-2 + MAC championship + Heisman finalist (3rd in voting, the highest finish ever by a MAC player) + multiple NCAA QB rushing records made Lynch one of the most-iconic G5 players of the BCS era. The Lynch era continued the 2012 Orange Bowl momentum + cemented NIU as G5 powerhouse.
since 2008
'Forward, Together Forward' — the program's defiance-rooted mantra — emerged after the 2008 NIU campus shooting tragedy + the program's role in community healing. The phrase captures both the football trajectory + the institutional resilience. Used in tweets + recruiting + alumni events.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2008
The post-tragedy motto adopted after the 2008 campus shooting — the institution's enduring identity
Wound
A 12-1 MAC champion crashed the BCS — the mid-major breakthrough
2024
NIU 16, Notre Dame 14 in South Bend as a 28-point underdog — the program's first win over a top-10 team
Moment of the Year · Northern Illinois · 2025
Week 9 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — win 20-28 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Tony Petersen — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: D. J. Bland — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Northern Illinois · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Northern Illinois · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Northern Illinois
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
Coaching Era · Northern Illinois
Moment of the Year · Northern Illinois · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger