Northern Illinois

0-2

Mountain West · Huskie Stadium · 23,595 · 17,582 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#99 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #130 (-22.3) · FPI #132
The marketArizona by 34.5at Arizona · our model 11% Northern Illinois · a number, not a pick

LastL 24–28 vs Illinois State · Sat Sep 12 · Avery Jones 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 8 tackles

Nextat Arizona · Sat Sep 19 · 10:30 pm ET · Arizona Stadium · Arizona by 34.5 · first meeting on record · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
12.0
Pts allowed/game
34.0
Total yards/gm#136 / 138 · 2nd pct
214.0
Rush yards/gm#136 / 138 · 2nd pct
59.5
Pass yards/gm#123 / 138 · 11th pct
154.5
Yards allowed/gm#100 / 138 · 28th pct
380.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#116 / 138 · 16th pct
195.0
SacksT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pct
3
InterceptionsT-#17 / 115 · 81st pct
3
3rd-down convT-#119 / 138 · 14th pct
31.0%
All 87 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
428214.0/gm3.54/play#136 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
761380.5/gm5.40/play#100 / 138 · 28th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
11959.5/gm0.98/play#136 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
390195.0/gm2.77/play#116 / 138 · 16th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6733.5/gmT-#93 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#46 / 70 · 34th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7437.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#53 / 70 · 21st pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#123 / 138 · 8th pctT-#64 / 70 · 6th pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#86 / 138 · 31st pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#3 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
309154.5/gm2.55/play#123 / 138 · 11th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
371185.5/gm2.63/play#57 / 138 · 59th pct#39 / 70 · 45th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5427.0/gmT-#83 / 138 · 39th pctT-#48 / 70 · 29th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6733.5/gmT-#95 / 138 · 31st pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3618.0/gmT-#77 / 138 · 44th pctT-#46 / 70 · 34th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4221.0/gmT-#102 / 138 · 25th pctT-#56 / 70 · 20th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
10.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 11th pctT-#60 / 70 · 9th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#103 / 138 · 19th pctT-#62 / 70 · 9th pctT-#7 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
109.7109.7#107 / 115 · 7th pct#59 / 60 · 2nd pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
119.9119.9#38 / 91 · 59th pct#26 / 42 · 39th pct#4 / 13 · 77th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
31.5/gmT-#8 / 138 · 89th pctT-#5 / 70 · 91st pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#11 / 13 · 23rd pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#110 / 138 · 16th pctT-#60 / 70 · 11th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
31.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#49 / 70 · 22nd pctT-#6 / 10 · 35th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
94.5/gmT-#135 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#2 / 11 · 91st pct
Tackles for loss
Team
94.5/gmT-#94 / 138 · 29th pctT-#52 / 70 · 22nd pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
157.5/gmT-#123 / 138 · 9th pctT-#67 / 70 · 4th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
2713.5/gmT-#131 / 138 · 5th pct#67 / 70 · 5th pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4522.5/gmT-#109 / 138 · 20th pctT-#63 / 70 · 9th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
94.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pctT-#7 / 10 · 30th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
157.5/gmT-#120 / 138 · 12th pctT-#64 / 70 · 7th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2914.5/gmT-#34 / 138 · 72nd pctT-#13 / 70 · 78th pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 50th pctT-#32 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 60th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
10.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 29th pctT-#44 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#8 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 70 · 89th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
21.0/gmT-#98 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#8 / 10 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 70 · 49th pctT-#4 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
54:5327:26/gm#114 / 138 · 18th pct#60 / 70 · 15th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
65:0732:34/gm#104 / 138 · 25th pct#60 / 70 · 15th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.25 EPA/play5231 / 4175.62897.012133.131.7
+0.00 EPA/play1425 / 1338.5201.50136.0
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.15 EPA/play45230993.3114
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.11 EPA/play268914.8036
Possession Receiver · +0.56 EPA/play1212776.4115

2026 stat leaders · Northern Illinois

through 2 games

Kimar Nelson leads Northern Illinois with 19 tackles through 2 games.

1. Kimar Nelson LB 19 tackles
2. Jack Murray LB 18 tackles
3. Kyon Conyers S 14 tackles
4. Avery Jones DB 11 tackles
5. Malik Armstrong S 10 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Northern Illinois fields a struggling run-heavy offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
9th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
67% run plays
Defense
36th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
80th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Northern Illinois · 2025

Northern Illinois reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 21%) and passing epa allowed (top 24%); the crux lives in success rate, where Northern Illinois sits at the 3rd percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.04
9th
Success Rate +0.34
3rd
Explosive Plays +1.29
62nd
Rushing EPA +0.09
45th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.18
36th
Success Rate Allowed +0.44
19th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.18
80th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.16
77th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.08
6th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.11
39th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Northern Illinois · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Northern Illinois is worth +1.5 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile of 133 programs

41% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (15–22 home, 19–29 away). Interval ±3.7.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Northern Illinois has beaten the number by −5.6 more at home than away over 74 games — inside the ±6.8 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Huskie Stadium seats 23,595 and has averaged 44% full (10,333, 25 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 267 miles trip since 2018, the 19th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 32% of the 2026 roster (35 of 108 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 44 home games since 2018.

Home15–22Away19–29Edge+1.5 ±3.7Visitor trip267 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Northern Illinois's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 53rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 89th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 53rd pctileCompetitive snaps only · 89th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Northern Illinois

CFB Zeitgeist

#99

-2.8

SP+

#130

-22.3

FPI

#132

-17.9

Elo

#127

1245

The national models put Northern Illinois between 127th and 132nd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 99th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Northern Illinois

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

57°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.

Based on 66 home games with weather data.

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