underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Israel Polk produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
our readdeveloping
Akron
1-2Latest
Mid-American · Joe Moorhead, year 5 (14-37) · InfoCision Stadium · 30,000 · 10,032 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#69 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #132 (-20.8) · FPI #130
The marketUNLV by 13.5vs UNLV · our model 72% Akron · a number, not a pick
LastL 7–41 at Minnesota · Sat Sep 19 · Cyrus Durham 1 sacks, 1 TFL, 3 tackles
Nextvs UNLV · Sat Sep 26 · 12 pm ET · InfoCision Stadium · UNLV by 13.5 · first meeting on record · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
Akron · 2026 schedule & results1-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #58 | #81 | +27.5✓ | @Wake Forest | L 16–38 137 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #60 | #217 | -26.5✓ | Robert Morris | W 45–10 121 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #61 | #41 | +22.5✗ | @Minnesota | L 7–41 124 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #67 | #105 | +13.5 | UNLV | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #69 | #134 | @Central Michigan | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Eastern Michigan | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Miami (OH) | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Kent State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | Ohio | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 11 | Western Michigan | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | @Massachusetts | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Buffalo |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | @Minnesota | L 7–41 | 221 | 2 | 25:56 | -0.116 | 31.7% | 99.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Robert Morris | W 45–10 | 523 | 1 | 35:14 | +0.340 | 54.9% | 116.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 3 | @Wake Forest | L 16–38 | 305 | 1 | 30:36 | +0.022 | 50.0% | 72.1% | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (3 games) | 350 | 1.3 | +0.082 | 45.5% | 96.2% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Akron produced a first-ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer in Jason Taylor and one MAC title in 2005 -- and in 2025 became the first FBS team barred from the postseason over academic progress rate since 2014, a headline that swallowed everything else about the season.
Title DroughtSince 2005 · 21 yrs
Akron fans know Jason Taylor is a first-ballot Hall of Famer who wore their uniform, and that the program has real history -- but 2025's APR ineligibility is the kind of story that travels further…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Akron fans
Minnesota fans on Akron
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 5-7 · last season
Game feel50even gamescombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 13 in the Mid-American
Heart rate3-2some dramain one-score games (5 of 12)5th most one-score games of 13 in the Mid-American
Margin-5.2competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 13 in the Mid-American
Tempo70uptempooffensive plays / game1st fastest of 13 in the Mid-American
Big plays1.19some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)10th most explosive of 13 in the Mid-American
Home crowd7,729avg attendance13th biggest crowds of 13 in the Mid-American
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Akron has won two of its last five.
Cooling. 5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
We moved the ball, got some first downs. I thought we were going to get a touchdown if we didn’t fumble
The forecast
Next Sep 26
vs UNLV · at home
PoorMethodical, ball-controlPoor
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#137 in field+100000
MAC title#10 in market+3500
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
Akron · the story right now
3 storylines developing
What Akron's season is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Israel Polk is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Israel Polk: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Akron · 2026
Outcome band · Akron · 2026Akron's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Rival pulse
Buffalo
Mixed+0
Buffalo-Akron
Kent State
Bullish+26
Wagon Wheel
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Akron produced a Pro Football Hall of Famer in Jason Taylor and won its only MAC title in 2005, but 2025 brought a stranger distinction: a 5-7 season that ended in automatic postseason ineligibility over academic progress rate, the first FBS team so barred since Idaho in 2014.
Offense: PoorTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Poor
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Akron
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22Returning Production92%High continuity
Talent Composite#121 nationally247 composite 546.8
Portal Additions15Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses18Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#132Depth class
Full roster (137 players)
CBAlex Branch, Ben Kamara, Dawayne Galloway Jr., Henry Perrymond, Iesa Jarmon, Justin Anderson, Savion Lewis, Zach Hobson
DBAamii Branch, Austin Wondolowski, Catrell White, De'Javion Stepney, Keyveon Johnson, Khory Moss, Mehki Flowers, Rod Smith Jr., Tairan Davis, Terence Thomas, Terry Lee Jr.
DLBrandon Tobias II, CJ Murphy, Cyrus Durham, Dimitri Madden, Eddie Vega, Elijah Davis, Jaiden Brown-Demery, Jasun Ridley, Jon'Trell Mixon, Kam Cheatom, Kiawan Murphy, Logan Hindmarch, Malakai Ross-Graves, Nehemiah Musika, Omari Bivens, Ronald Hull, Ty Watkins
LBDanny Nittoli, Daunte Curtis, Devin Reeves, Donelius Johnson, Dwight Nunoo, Eddie Smith III, Gage Summers, Gavin James, Jason Hocker, Jeremiah Jones, Jude Buchanan, Melvin Spriggs, Rich Benenge, Shammond Cooper
OLAJ George, Alex Fox, Allen Jones Jr., Amarie Archer, August Weight, Brandon Smith, Carlos Slayden, Colin Lyons, Darrell Johnson Jr., Daxton Christman-Gourley, Dayne Shor, Ian Falkner, Jacob Kumfert, Jason Hoskins, Javirea Moore, Jayme Motley-Simmons, Jeremiah Ndaiga, Jon Stephens, Jonas Mann, Jonathan Gould, Lorvens Barthelemy, Max Mobley, Melvin Puckett, Nate Hampton, Nick Stopiak
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Akron
4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Coaching
Akron hires offensive coordinator
An alumnus in the OC chair is a feel-good story — but with SP+ trending down and class rank sitting at 132, Moorhead needed a schematic answer, not a homecoming.
- News
Akron QB out awaiting eligibility waiver
Moorhead's QB room is already thin by MAC standards — losing a starter to a waiver limbo while the depth class sits at #132 nationally is a roster math problem, not just a paperwork delay.
- News
Akron names OC finalists
Nine finalists — including Big Cat from Barstool — tells you exactly where Akron's brand strategy is right now: SP+ is sliding, class rank sits at 132, and Moorhead is betting attention converts to recruiting leverage.
- Recruiting
Remplet commits to Akron
FCS-to-FBS for Remplet, and Moorhead's LB room is the beneficiary — a depth class ranked 132nd nationally can't afford gaps at pressure spots, and Binghamton tape says he earned this shot.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+0.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -15.3 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+10.1
need filled
LB-7.1
starter risk
TE-6.9
starter risk
EDGE-5.9
OT-3.6
low confidence
QB+3.5
low confidence
DL-3.1
IOL-3.1
P+3.0
low confidence
K-2.0
low confidence
WR-0.2
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Semaj Beals
#1358 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Henry Perrymond
#1566 national
★★★☆☆
Savion Lewis
#1846 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
14
CA · 4OH · 3FL · 2AL · 1GA · 1IN · 1PA · 1WA · 1
CA leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
65 signees across 23 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Akron player grew up 342 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
55th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%110–903 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi22%28 of 127 players
Farthest2,174 miMalakai Ross-Graves · Santa Cruz, CA
Closest7 miCam Macon · Barberton, OH
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to InfoCision Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 127 of 137 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Akron Defeats UMass 44-10
[Postgame Thread] Akron Defeats Buffalo 24-16
[Game Thread] UMass @ Akron (7:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
28th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
4.5
Vegas O/U wins
(12th among FBS)
(12th among FBS)
Fans 16pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 33% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
2 of 6 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
Deflections without payoff: 7% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.
1 interceptions of 14 disrupted passes (13 deflected, 1 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
Roughly even on flags: 20 penalties committed vs. 16 drawn on opponents.
177 penalty yards committed vs. 170 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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