Akron at Kent State
Kent State (2‑5) hosts Akron (1‑6). The market has Kent State favored by 3. Akron’s offense is at the 12th percentile on explosive plays; Kent State’s defense is at the 70th.
This is Wagon Wheel — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Akron · 1-6
Rated 58th in our preseason ratings, 138th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Kent State · 2-5
Rated 122nd in our preseason ratings, 150th now.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Akron’s explosive plays against Kent State, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Akron’s explosive plays against Kent State’s defense
Akron offense, 12th percentile · Kent State defense, 70th
Akron’s success rate against Kent State’s defense
Akron offense, 39th percentile · Kent State defense, 12th
What’s at stake
Akron
- Akron is 3 games back in Mid-American with 4 left to make it up.
- Akron has dropped 1 straight in Wagon Wheel — a chance to snap the skid.
Kent State
- Kent State needs 4 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 22% to get there with a win here, 4% with a loss.
- Mark Carney is ahead of Kenni Burns’s year-2 pace (2-5 vs. 0-7) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
Akron leads the series 26-19-1
46 meetings since 1972 · Kent State won the last meeting
- 2025Kent State 42-35
- 2024Akron 38-17
- 2023Akron 31-27
- 2022Kent State 33-27
- 2021Kent State 38-0
Each line is Kent State’s chance to win through that meeting. Kent State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Akron
The chip · vs the national mediaAkron fans know Jason Taylor is a first-ballot Hall of Famer who wore their uniform, and that the program has real history -- but 2025's APR ineligibility is the kind of story that travels further nationally than any of it, and fans are tired of the program being a punchline for something that isn't about football talent.
What this game touches
The 2025 postseason ban over Academic Progress Rate. Akron was ruled ineligible for the postseason in 2025 regardless of its final record due to an insufficient Academic Progress Rate -- the first FBS program to face that specific penalty since Idaho in 2014. A 5-7 season was already unlikely to reach a bowl, but the program lost the choice entirely, and the story became about APR rather than football.
Kent State
The chip · vs the national mediaKent State fans have watched the program get written off as a MAC afterthought during the 1-23 stretch -- and answered with a coach promoted from the same staff that presided over it, turning the roster around fast enough to reclaim the Wagon Wheel in overtime.
What this game touches
The 1-23 stretch under Kenni Burns. Kent State won a single game combined across the 2023 and 2024 seasons before Burns was fired in April 2025 -- one of the worst two-year stretches in modern MAC history, and the standard every Mark Carney win is measured against.
Best players
Akron
- Donelius Johnson (LB) · 67 tackles
- Dwight Nunoo (LB) · 40 tackles
- Tairan Davis (DB) · 35 tackles
Kent State
- Hayden Dawahare (LB) · 33 tackles
- Joel Cordoba (DB) · 33 tackles
- Wayne Harris (WR) · 383 receiving yards
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Akron: Jordan Gant (452 rushing yards); Kent State: Dru Deshields (1,140 passing yards).
The total has moved up 4.0 points since opening (43.5 → 47.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Kent State’s chances here.
Kent State favored by 3 · Total 47.5
Kent State by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Kent State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Dix Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 87 to 91
Akron at Kent State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 1 pm ET · Dix Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Dix Stadium: noon Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm 89, 7:30 pm 87.
- noon: 91, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 87, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Kent State is worth +10.0 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
45% at home, 18% on the road against FBS opponents (15-18 home, 10-45 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.1 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 11 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Kent State
- Wk 3Lat Ohio State3-59
- Wk 4Wvs Ball State26-13
- Wk 5Lvs Ohio10-13
- Wk 6Lat Western Michigan7-38
- Wk 7Lat South Florida2-29
Akron
- Wk 3Lat Minnesota7-41
- Wk 4Lvs UNLV10-38
- Wk 5Lat Central Michigan17-41
- Wk 6Lvs Eastern Michigan23-25
- Wk 7Lat Miami (OH)14-34
Power rating by week
Akron is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Akron.
The total rose 4 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −3 · Total: 43.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Kent State9th1-2
- Akron12th0-3
Last meeting in our History pages
- Kent State 42, Akron 35Nov 11, 2025
Our History pages cover 9 of their meetings since 2015.