Kent State beats Ball State 26-13

Ball State1-313
Kent State2-226Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Dix Stadium, Kent, Ohio · Crowd 11,059ESPN+

Kent State beat Ball State 26-13.

We had Kent State favored. It won.

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kent State a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Kent State was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

Favored the whole way: Kent State never fell below 60%.

Ball State never had better than a 40% chance.

SafetyKent State · Q4 8:33
FinalKent State 26-13 Ball StateKent State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfKent StateWon26-131+14ScoresSafety
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfKent StateWon26-131ScoresSafety
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfKent StateLowest 0%Lost13-261−14ScoresSafety
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfKent StateLowest 0%Lost13-261ScoresSafety

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:15DeShields 7-yd TD pass to White, Kent State goes ahead 7-0Kent State 69% → 83% (+14)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:15DeShields 7-yd TD pass to White, Kent State goes ahead 7-0Ball State 31% → 17% (−14)
Kent State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Kent State -2.5), at 67% for Kent State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Kent State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Ball State on 2 of its 9.

Kent State’s drives are teal, Ball State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Kent State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 49PuntBall State: Punt, from 87 yards out to 82PuntKent State: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Punt, from 91 yards out to 26PuntQ2Kent State: Touchdown, from 93 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntKent State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 36Field goalQ3Ball State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 56PuntKent State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 83PuntBall State: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownKent State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntBall State: Punt, from 94 yards out to 87PuntQ4Kent State: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownBall State: Safety, from 92 yards out to 100SafetyKent State: Punt, from 60 yards out to 54PuntBall State: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownKent State: Punt, from 49 yards out to 42PuntBall State: Turned over on downs, from 93 yards out to 99DownsKent State: End of game, from 1 yards out to 3End of game

Box score

Kent State 26, Ball State 13

Kent State covered −2.5 by 10.5. The total, 39, stayed under 51.5.

Ball StateKent StateTotal yardsBall State 210Kent State 354210354Passing yardsBall State 164Kent State 189164189Rushing yardsBall State 46Kent State 16546165First downsBall State 12Kent State 201220TurnoversBall State 0Kent State 000Time of possessionBall State 24:42Kent State 35:1824:4235:18
Team totalsBall StateKent State
Total yards210354
Passing16 of 27, 164 yds16 of 25, 189 yds
Rushing27 for 46 yds43 for 165 yds
First downs1220
Third down5 of 146 of 14
Fourth down2 of 32 of 2
Turnovers00
Penalties7 for 60 yds14 for 114 yds
Time of possession24:4235:18

Ball State leaders

  • Passing Tyler Mizzell 16 of 27, 164 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jalen Bonds 11 for 36 yds, 1 TD; Johnny Thompson Jr. 2 for 5 yds
  • Receiving Donovan Hamilton 7 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Jalen Bonds 5 for 57 yds

Kent State leaders

  • Passing Dru Deshields 16 of 25, 189 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Dru Deshields 13 for 76 yds, 1 TD; Mason Blakemore 11 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Da'Realyst Clark 6 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Ardell Banks 2 for 58 yds

No rain through the game

65° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Game-day temperatures at Dix Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Kent State favoredBall State favored100%Win chanceKent StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Kent State favoredBall State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left12:03 p.m.
Ball State 0, Kent State 0 · Kent State 67% to win
no rain · 65°
King 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ravenna airport, 5.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Ball State · 1-2

Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 157th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last three games

Kent State · 1-2

Rated 122nd in our preseason ratings, 120th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Week by week

Kent State

Wk 1: L 0-57 at South Carolina▼57South CarolinaWk 2: W 36-15 vs Wofford▲21WoffordWk 3: L 3-59 at Ohio State▼56Ohio State
  • Wk 1Lat South Carolina0-57
  • Wk 2Wvs Wofford36-15
  • Wk 3Lat Ohio State3-59

Ball State

Wk 1: L 3-56 at Ohio State▼53Ohio StateWk 2: W 41-17 vs Stony Brook▲24Stony BrookWk 3: L 15-51 at Liberty▼36Liberty
  • Wk 1Lat Ohio State3-56
  • Wk 2Wvs Stony Brook41-17
  • Wk 3Lat Liberty15-51

Power rating by week

Kent State is rated 2.5 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-6-8Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Kent StateBall State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kent State’s explosive plays against Ball State, 37 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Kent State’s explosive plays against Ball State’s defense

    37 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kent State offense, 45th percentile · Ball State defense, 8th

  2. Ball State’s rushing EPA against Kent State’s defense

    16 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ball State offense, 26th percentile · Kent State defense, 42nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Ball StateKent State
EPA/play, offense
Ball State · 31Kent State · 1
EPA/play, defense
Ball State · 1Kent State · 37
Success rate, offense
Ball State · 13Kent State · 1
Success rate, defense
Ball State · 13Kent State · 12
Explosive-play rate, offense
Ball State · 87Kent State · 45
Explosive-play rate, defense
Ball State · 8Kent State · 69
Rush EPA, offense
Ball State · 26Kent State · 3
Rush EPA, defense
Ball State · 2Kent State · 42
Pass EPA, offense
Ball State · 47Kent State · 11
Pass EPA, defense
Ball State · 1Kent State · 33

The series

Ball State leads the series 25-8

33 meetings since 1977 · Ball State has won the last 4

Kent State wonBall State won1977: Kent State by 11978: Ball State by 241979: Ball State by 251980: Ball State by 271981: Kent State by 101982: Ball State by 181983: Ball State by 41984: Kent State by 51985: Kent State by 291986: Ball State by 91987: Ball State by 11988: Ball State by 111989: Ball State by 21990: Ball State by 311991: Ball State by 11992: Ball State by 41993: Ball State by 251994: Ball State by 341995: Ball State by 151996: Ball State by 442001: Kent State by 132003: Ball State by 172006: Ball State by 242008: Ball State by 212010: Kent State by 192012: Kent State by 22013: Ball State by 32018: Ball State by 282019: Kent State by 32022: Ball State by 72023: Ball State by 312024: Ball State by 22025: Ball State by 419772025
  • 2025Ball State 17-13Kent State lost 13-17 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 32%, low 3%, high 72%.
  • 2024Ball State 37-35Kent State lost 35-37 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 40%, low 2%, high 40%.
  • 2023Ball State 34-3Kent State lost 3-34 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high 28%.
  • 2022Ball State 27-20Kent State lost 20-27 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 72%, low 3%, high 92%.
  • 2019Kent State 41-38Kent State won 41-38 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 38%, low 16%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Kent State’s chance to win through that meeting. Kent State is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kent State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (95th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 62% · Line 58%Kent State fans · 95thBall State fans · 66thBall StateKent State

Kent State favored by 2.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Kent State by 2.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Ball State.

opened −4.5now −2.5

Spread: −4.5 → −2.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Kent State is worth +10.0 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

45% at home, 18% on the road against FBS opponents (15-18 home, 10-45 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.1 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 224 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2019.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings