Toledo beats Ball State 39-24
Team pages: Toledo · Ball State
Toledo beat Ball State 39-24. Share this game
We had Toledo favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Toledo an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Toledo was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.
Favored the whole way: Toledo never fell below 56%.
Ball State never had better than a 44% chance.
Toledo · Q2 7:58Toledo 39-24 Ball State
Toledo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Ball State 24-39 ToledoBall State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:45FumbleLuster sacked for a 4-yd loss, fumblesToledo 73% → 86% (+13)
- 2Q2 13:3242-yd puntToledo 79% → 67% (−12)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:45FumbleLuster sacked for a 4-yd loss, fumblesBall State 27% → 14% (−13)
- 2Q2 13:3242-yd puntBall State 21% → 33% (+12)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Toledo -20.5), at 87% for Toledo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Toledo scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Ball State on 4 of its 12.
Toledo’s drives are teal, Ball State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Ball State’s side
Ball State’s best moment: 42-yd punt (Q2 13:32). It lifted Ball State’s win chance by 12 points.
What it cost
Toledo’s chance to win the conference rose from 24% to 27%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Toledo 39, Ball State 24
Ball State covered +20.5 by 5.5. The total, 63, went over 52.5.
| Team totals | Toledo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 553 | 370 |
| Passing | 19 of 35, 201 yds | 22 of 35, 238 yds |
| Rushing | 51 for 352 yds | 27 for 132 yds |
| First downs | 27 | 18 |
| Third down | 8 of 18 | 5 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Penalties | 5 for 60 yds | 4 for 35 yds |
| Time of possession | 34:20 | 25:40 |
Toledo leaders
- Passing John Alan Richter 19 of 35, 201 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing CJ Miller 20 for 196 yds, 2 TD; Connor Walendzak 16 for 103 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Adjatay Dabbs 6 for 82 yds; Daryl Barnett Jr. 3 for 34 yds, 1 TD
Ball State leaders
- Passing Keldric Luster 21 of 33, 224 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing TJ Horton 9 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Johnny Thompson Jr. 9 for 19 yds
- Receiving Donovan Hamilton 6 for 70 yds; Jabari Smith 6 for 60 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
66° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Scheumann Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Muncie airport, 2.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Toledo · 3-1
Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 40th now.
3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Ball State · 1-3
Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 164th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Ball State
- Wk 1Lat Ohio State3-56
- Wk 2Wvs Stony Brook41-17
- Wk 3Lat Liberty15-51
- Wk 4Lat Kent State13-26
Toledo
- Wk 1Lat Michigan State20-30
- Wk 2Wvs Central Connecticut63-10
- Wk 3Wvs Temple49-48
- Wk 4Wvs San Diego State41-16
Power rating by week
Toledo is rated 10.5 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Toledo’s explosive plays against Ball State, 91 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Toledo’s explosive plays against Ball State’s defense
Toledo offense, 99th percentile · Ball State defense, 8th
Toledo’s EPA/play against Ball State’s defense
Toledo offense, 79th percentile · Ball State defense, 1st
Toledo’s passing EPA against Ball State’s defense
Toledo offense, 87th percentile · Ball State defense, 1st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Toledo leads the series 28-21-1
50 meetings since 1975 · Toledo has won the last 4
- 2025Toledo 38-9
- 2023Toledo 13-6
- 2022Toledo 28-21
- 2021Toledo 22-12
- 2020Ball State 27-24
Each line is Ball State’s chance to win through that meeting. Ball State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (65th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 13%
- Line · 5%
- Ball State fans · 38th
- Toledo fans · 65th
Toledo favored by 20.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Toledo by 20.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Toledo.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +17.5 → +20.5 · Total: 51.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 68° at kickoff.
Toledo at Ball State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Scheumann Stadium, Muncie
- 68°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 9 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's nine kickoff times. At Scheumann Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 97, against 100 at 2 pm.
- 11 am: 100, Ideal
- noon: 100, Ideal
- 12:45 pm: 100, Ideal
- 2 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 4:15 pm: 100, Ideal
- 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 8 pm: 97, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Ball State is worth +7.2 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
47% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (18-20 home, 13-38 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 137 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Ball State12th0-1
- Toledo7th0-0