Central Connecticut at Toledo
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Central Connecticut · 8-5
Picked #191 in the preseason · now #175 — better than expected.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 19–27 @ Rhode Island #87 of 668
lost by 8 as a 19.5-point underdog
W 35–28 vs Mercyhurst #228 of 668
won by 7 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 33–38 @ Duquesne #170 of 668
lost by 5 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 40–10 vs Stonehill #251 of 668
won by 30 as a 10-point favorite
W 10–7 vs Long Island University #198 of 668
won by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 24–17 @ Wagner #259 of 668
W 24–12 @ Robert Morris #256 of 668
won by 12 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 42–35 vs Sacred Heart #222 of 668
won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 28–35 vs Dartmouth #197 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 14–16 @ Merrimack #213 of 668
lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 31–7 vs Saint Francis #216 of 668
won by 24 as a 11.5-point favorite
W 34–7 vs American International #301 of 668
L 13–59 @ UConn #76 of 668
lost by 46 as a 28-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Toledo · 8-5
Picked #47 in the preseason · now #63.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 22–27 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #29 of 668
lost by 5 as a 11.5-point underdog
W 21–3 @ Central Michigan #91 of 668
won by 18 as a 11.5-point favorite
W 38–9 vs Ball State #217 of 668
won by 29 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 24–3 @ Miami (OH) #70 of 668
won by 21 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 42–3 vs Northern Illinois #203 of 668
won by 39 as a 15.5-point favorite
L 7–28 @ Washington State #88 of 668
lost by 21 as a 2-point favorite
W 45–10 vs Kent State #227 of 668
won by 35 as a 25.5-point favorite
L 23–28 @ Bowling Green #110 of 668
lost by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 45–3 vs Akron #177 of 668
won by 42 as a 22.5-point favorite
L 13–14 @ Western Michigan #85 of 668
lost by 1 as a 11.5-point favorite
W 60–0 vs Morgan State #200 of 668
won by 60 as a 34-point favorite
W 45–21 vs Western Kentucky #110 of 668
won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 16–24 @ Kentucky #74 of 668
lost by 8 as a 10-point underdog
What’s at stake
Central Connecticut
- Central Connecticut is still shaking off a 53-point loss.
Toledo
- A win puts Toledo a step closer to a 1% shot at the CFP field.
- Toledo is coming off a 53-point win.
The series
Toledo leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · Toledo won the last meeting
- 2026Toledo 63–10
Best players
Toledo
- Isaac Zay (LB) · 19 tackles
- Julian Fox (LB) · 18 tackles
- Mo Conteh (S) · 13 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market are in lockstep on Toledo’s chances here.
Home −36.5 · O/U 52.5
Conditions
82°F · 10 mph wind · Cloudy
Toledo is worth +6.4 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
74% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (29–10 home, 21–24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +10.1 at home vs. away over 74 games — outside the ±6.6 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 560 miles to get here.
Central Connecticut 10 – Toledo 63
Called it — picked Toledo to win.
Recent games
Toledo
- Wk 1Lat Michigan State20-30
Central Connecticut
- Wk 1Lat South Dakota20-59
Trajectory
Toledo won 63-10, as picked pregame.