Morgan State University · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Morgan State University · low confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Morgan State University1974 National Championship
Morgan State defeats Grambling State in the Pelican Bowl to become the first HBCU national champion
Morgan State University4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Morgan State is the HBCU champion—the first Black college to win a national title (1974)—whose claim to Black football excellence keeps climbing despite a brutal 2025 season.
Title DroughtSince 2014 · 11 yrs
The fanbase carries the weight of 1974 and the knowledge that Morgan State was FIRST—before Howard, before Delaware State. The national conversation forgot, but Baltimore didn't.
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at North Carolina A&T · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Morgan State is the HBCU champion—the first Black college to win a national title (1974)—whose claim to Black football excellence keeps climbing despite a brutal 2025 season.
The Bears are in the woods.
Morgan State University · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak L1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs North Carolina A&T · away
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Howard Defeats Morgan State 33-27 (OT)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fumble luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 20% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.
1 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
The Pulse on Morgan State University
—
The Bears are in the woods.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Morgan State"
— Morgan State University fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Morgan State University · low confidence
Stable (48)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#94 / 138 · 33rd pct23.3
Pts allowed/game#76 / 138 · 46th pct26.6
All 19 stats
Other
H1 epa per play#145 / 162 · 11th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct-0.0-0.0
H1 epa per play opponent#147 / 167 · 13th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct0.30.0/gm
First down pass rate#203 / 215 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#6 / 9 · 44th pct0.20.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team30.2/gm#152 / 167 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp151.2/gm#29 / 166 · 83rd pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team100.0%100.0%#1 / 167 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Opp93.3%93.3%#157 / 166 · 6th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct
Points / drive
Team0.80.1/gm#147 / 167 · 13th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp3.70.3/gm#158 / 166 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Yards / drive
Team22.11.8/gm#158 / 167 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp35.93.0/gm#28 / 166 · 84th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct
Plays / drive
Team5.60.5/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp6.10.5/gm#23 / 166 · 87th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct
Three-and-out rate
Team34.6%34.6%#161 / 167 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp3.8%3.8%#160 / 166 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success allowed#164 / 172 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct59.3%59.3%
Passing-downs success#143 / 153 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct22.6%22.6%
Line yards / carry allowed#146 / 155 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct3.63.6
Stuff rate forced#150 / 155 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct9.8%9.8%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Morgan State University · 2025 schedule & results4-8Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 42% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #201 | #85 | +28.5 | @South Alabama | L 21–38 121 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #158 | #176 | +10 | Towson | L 22–27 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #185 | #51 | +34 | @Toledo | L 0–60 132 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #200 | #405 | — | Central State | W 27–0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #219 | #339 | — | Miles (N) | W 24–17 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #222 | #241 | -2.5 | @Georgetown | L 24–27 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #219 | — | — | Virginia Lynchburg | W 44–6 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #212 | #222 | -1 | @Howard | L 27–33 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #216 | #147 | +11.5 | @South Carolina State | L 30–36 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #213 | #169 | +3.5 | Delaware State | L 12–14 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #209 | #243 | -5.5 | @Norfolk State | W 35–28 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #205 | #155 | +9.5 | North Carolina Central | L 14–33 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | North Carolina Central | L 14–33 | — | — | — | -0.052 | 31.7% | 95.8% | |
| Nov 15 | @Norfolk State | W 35–28 | — | — | — | +0.204 | 40.9% | 127.6% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | Delaware State | L 12–14 | — | — | — | -0.084 | 36.5% | 115.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | @South Carolina State | L 30–36 | — | — | — | +0.237 | 39.4% | 152.6% | One-score loss |
| Oct 11 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 44–6 | — | — | — | +0.334 | 56.0% | 102.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @Georgetown | L 24–27 | — | — | — | +0.250 | 32.1% | 167.3% | Most explosive |
| Sep 27 | Miles | W 24–17 | — | — | — | +0.111 | 40.8% | 102.3% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | Central State | W 27–0 | — | — | — | -0.081 | 41.3% | 104.5% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 13 | @Toledo | L 0–60 | 56 | 1 | 26:01 | -0.306 | 14.9% | 81.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Towson | L 22–27 | — | — | — | +0.131 | 43.9% | 137.7% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | @South Alabama | L 21–38 | 340 | 4 | 22:46 | +0.164 | 39.7% | 128.2% | |
| Season average (11 games) | 198 | 2.5 | +0.082 | 37.9% | 119.6% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Morgan State University's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.08; 39th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.16 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Morgan State University · 2018-present
Elite
45% home win rate vs 23% on the road. margin runs +18.0 better at home. Hughes Stadium seats 10,000, averaging 37% full (3,695 attendance, 8 games reported).
Home16-19Away10-33
Venue texture
64°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Morgan State University
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
94-157-1
since 1966 · 28 seasons · .373 win rate
HOME
48-52-1
AWAY
32-94
NEUTRAL
14-11
1960s
1970s
1980s
2000s
2010s
2020s
MEAC Standing · 2025
5th in the MEAC
Morgan State University sits 5th of 6 in the MEAC at 1-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina State | 5-0 |
| 2 | Delaware State | 4-1 |
| 3 | North Carolina Central | 3-2 |
| 4 | Howard | 2-3 |
| 5 | Morgan State | 1-4 |
| 6 | Norfolk State | 0-5 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1974
Seven Black College National Titles
Morgan State claims the most Black college national championships in history across all eras
Moment of the Year · Morgan State University · 2025
Moment of the Year · Morgan State University · 2025Won 27-0 vs Central State
Week 4 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
r/cfb moments
128
[Postgame Thread] Army Defeats Morgan State 52-21
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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