Morgan State upsets Villanova 38-35

Team pages: Morgan State · Villanova

Morgan State4-138
Villanova2-435Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Villanova Stadium, Villanova, Pa. · Crowd 3,463ESPN+

Morgan State beat Villanova 38-35 as a 16.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 6%.

Winners have been down to 6% or less in about 1 of every 20 games since 2018.

Next: Morgan State beat Robert Morris 28-27, Sat Oct 10

Next: Villanova beat Fordham 38-17, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Edge 2-yd TD run, Morgan State goes ahead 38-35 (Q4, 0:36). Morgan State went from 16% to 76% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Morgan State a 45% chance, and the closing betting line (Morgan State was a 16.5-point underdog) put it at 9%.

FinalMorgan State 38-35 VillanovaMorgan State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfMorgan StateVillanovaWon38-35Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfMorgan StateVillanovaWon38-35Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfVillanovaMorgan StateLost35-38Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfVillanovaMorgan StateLost35-38Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:36Edge 2-yd TD run, Morgan State goes ahead 38-35Morgan State 16% → 76% (+60)
  2. 2Q4 0:02LeBlanc 47-yd field goal no goodMorgan State 51% → 100% (+49)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:36Edge 2-yd TD run, Morgan State goes ahead 38-35Villanova 84% → 24% (−60)
  2. 2Q4 0:02LeBlanc 47-yd field goal no goodVillanova 49% → 0% (−49)
Morgan State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Villanova -16.5), at 9% for Morgan State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Morgan State scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Villanova on 5 of its 12.

Morgan State’s drives are teal, Villanova’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Villanova: Punt, from 67 yards out to 47PuntMorgan State: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownMorgan State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: Interception, from 71 yards out to 66InterceptionQ2Morgan State: Field goal, from 38 yards out to 10Field goalVillanova: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownMorgan State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntVillanova: Punt, from 73 yards out to 59PuntMorgan State: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: End of half, from 57 yards out to 58End of halfQ3Morgan State: Punt, from 57 yards out to 49PuntVillanova: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownMorgan State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 38PuntVillanova: Touchdown, from 97 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Morgan State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownMorgan State: Punt, from 64 yards out to 75PuntVillanova: Punt, from 47 yards out to 48PuntMorgan State: Interception, from 80 yards out to 13InterceptionVillanova: Punt, from 80 yards out to 86PuntMorgan State: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: Missed field goal, from 67 yards out to 30Missed FG

From Villanova’s side

Villanova’s best moment: McQuaide 13-yd pass to Hilton (Q4 0:30). It lifted Villanova’s win chance by 18 points.

The winner fell to 6%.

Box score

Morgan State 38, Villanova 35

Morgan State covered +16.5 by 19.5. The total, 73, went over 48.5.

Morgan State leaders

  • Passing Cameron Edge 31 of 40, 444 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Dorian Harris 6 for 32 yds; Keith Jenkins Jr. 5 for 21 yds
  • Receiving Justin Perry 5 for 152 yds; Joseph Towler 4 for 89 yds, 1 TD

Villanova leaders

  • Passing Pat McQuaide 22 of 28, 266 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Ja'briel Mace 13 for 103 yds, 2 TD; Isaiah Ragland 12 for 76 yds, 3 TD
  • Receiving Braden Reed 6 for 57 yds; Ja'briel Mace 2 for 47 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Morgan State · 3-1

Rated 218th in our preseason ratings, 189th now, up 29 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, capped by a 15-point win over Towson as an 8.5-point underdog.

W 41-26 @ Towson #202 of 668

won by 15 as an 8.5-point underdog

Morgan State won 41-26 at Towson. Chance to win started at 20%, low 14%, high better than 99%.

W 55-0 vs Virginia Lynchburg

Morgan State won 55-0 vs Virginia Lynchburg. Chance to win started at 60%, low 44%, high better than 99%.

L 7-70 @ Arizona State #52 of 668

lost by 63 as a 43.5-point underdog

Morgan State lost 7-70 at Arizona State. Never had a real chance.

W 17-7 @ North Carolina A&T #264 of 668

won by 10 as a 7-point favorite

Morgan State won 17-7 at North Carolina A&T. Chance to win started at 61%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Villanova · 2-3

Rated 137th in our preseason ratings, 171st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 21-28 vs Colgate #159 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite

W 20-16 @ Long Island University #230 of 668

won by 4 as an 18.5-point favorite

Villanova won 20-16 at Long Island University. Chance to win started at 90%, low 47%, high 97%.

L 13-59 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #56 of 668

lost by 46 as a 39.5-point underdog

Villanova lost 13-59 at Louisville. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 17-16 @ Bucknell #233 of 668

won by 1 as a 22.5-point favorite

Villanova won 17-16 at Bucknell. Chance to win started at 91%, low 72%, high 99%.

L 32-35 vs William & Mary #180 of 668

lost by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite

Villanova lost 32-35 vs William & Mary. Chance to win started at 87%, low under 1%, high 98%.

Week by week

Villanova

Wk 1: L 32-35 vs William & Mary▼3William…Wk 1: W 17-16 at Bucknell▲1BucknellWk 2: L 13-59 at Louisville▼46Louisvil…Wk 3: W 20-16 at Long Island University▲4Long Isl…Wk 4: L 21-28 vs Colgate▼7Colgate
  • Wk 1Lvs William & Mary32-35
  • Wk 1Wat Bucknell17-16
  • Wk 2Lat Louisville13-59
  • Wk 3Wat Long Island University20-16
  • Wk 4Lvs Colgate21-28

Morgan State

Wk 1: W 17-7 at North Carolina A&T▲10N. Carolina…Wk 1: L 7-70 at Arizona State▼63Arizona St.Wk 2: W 55-0 vs Virginia Lynchburg▲55Virginia Ly…Wk 3: W 41-26 at Towson▲15Towson
  • Wk 1Wat North Carolina A&T17-7
  • Wk 1Lat Arizona State7-70
  • Wk 2Wvs Virginia Lynchburg55-0
  • Wk 3Wat Towson41-26

Power rating by week

Villanova is rated 1.1 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-5-8-11Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4VillanovaMorgan State

The series

Villanova leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2014 · Villanova won the last meeting

  • 2014Villanova 48-28

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Villanova’s chances here.

50-50Model · 55%Line · 91%Morgan StateVillanova

Villanova favored by 16.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Villanova by 16.5, on the usual path until 8:46 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 6 points toward Villanova.

opened −10.5now −16.5

The total rose 3 points.

opened 45.5now 48.5

Spread: −10.5 → −16.5 · Total: 45.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Villanova is worth +6.3 points (±12.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.

75% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (3-1 home, 5-7 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.2 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 82 miles to get here.

Where next