Villanova beats Fordham 38-17
Villanova beat Fordham 38-17. Share this game
We had Villanova favored. It won.
Next: Villanova vs Lehigh, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET
Next: Fordham vs Lafayette, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: McQuaide 14-yd TD pass to Reed, Villanova leads 21-7 (Q2, 10:47). Villanova went from 88% to 72% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Villanova a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Villanova was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.
Favored the whole way: Villanova never fell below 63%.
Fordham never had better than a 36% chance.
Villanova 38-17 Fordham
Villanova wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Fordham 17-38 VillanovaFordham lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:41Smith 17-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Villanova 80% → 67% (−13)
- 2Q2 10:47McQuaide 14-yd TD pass to Reed, Villanova leads 21-7Villanova 88% → 72% (−16)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 8:41Smith 17-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Fordham 20% → 33% (+13)
- 2Q2 10:47McQuaide 14-yd TD pass to Reed, Villanova leads 21-7Fordham 12% → 28% (+16)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Villanova -7.5), at 65% for Villanova (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Villanova scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Fordham on 3 of its 10.
Villanova’s drives are teal, Fordham’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Fordham’s side
Fordham’s best moment: McQuaide 14-yd TD pass to Reed, Villanova leads 21-7 (Q2 10:47). It lifted Fordham’s win chance by 16 points.
Box score
Villanova 38, Fordham 17
Villanova covered −7.5 by 13.5. The total, 55, went over 44.5.
Villanova leaders
- Passing Pat McQuaide 18 of 24, 235 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Isaiah Ragland 10 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Ja'briel Mace 13 for 79 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Braden Reed 4 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Chris Colby 2 for 57 yds
Fordham leaders
- Passing Gunnar Smith 11 of 26, 60 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Yohan-Li Louis 14 for 115 yds; Jamell James 11 for 72 yds
- Receiving Ricky Gonzalez II 4 for 28 yds; Kj Reed 3 for 17 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Villanova · 2-4
Rated 137th in our preseason ratings, 192nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 21-28 vs Colgate #159 of 668
lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games
Fordham · 2-5
Rated 244th in our preseason ratings, 245th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over Richmond as an 8.5-point underdog.
W 20-14 vs Richmond #205 of 668
won by 6 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 0-34 @ Lehigh #129 of 668
lost by 34 as a 22.5-point underdog
L 16-31 vs Stony Brook #158 of 668
lost by 15 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 14-24 vs Colgate #208 of 668
lost by 10 as an 8.5-point underdog
Week by week
Fordham
- Wk 2Lat Coastal Carolina7-45
- Wk 3Wat William & Mary52-27
- Wk 4Lvs Stony Brook16-31
- Wk 5Lat Lehigh0-34
- Wk 6Wvs Richmond20-14
Villanova
- Wk 1Wat Bucknell17-16
- Wk 2Lat Louisville13-59
- Wk 3Wat Long Island University20-16
- Wk 4Lvs Colgate21-28
- Wk 5Lvs Morgan State35-38
Power rating by week
Villanova is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Villanova leads the series 8-3
11 meetings since 1905 · Villanova has won the last 2
- 2015 · neutral siteVillanova 14-7
- 2014Villanova 50-6
- 2013 · neutral siteFordham 27-24
- 2012Villanova 28-13
- 1954Villanova 41-0
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Fordham’s chances here.
Villanova favored by 7.5 · Total 44.5
How games like this usually go
Villanova by 7.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The total fell 3 points.
Total: 47.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 1-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.8 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 95 miles to get here.