Villanova at Louisville
Fan take
Villanova fans
Louisville fans
How they got here
Last two games
Villanova · 1-1
Picked #131 in the preseason · now #160.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 17–16 @ Bucknell #223 of 669
won by 1 as a 22.5-point favorite
L 32–35 vs William & Mary #177 of 669
lost by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Louisville · 9-4
Picked #58 in the preseason · now #35 — better than expected.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 41-point win over Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.
W 27–22 vs Toledo #27 of 668
won by 5 as a 11.5-point favorite
W 41–0 vs Kentucky #71 of 668
won by 41 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 6–38 @ SMUTop 25 #8 of 668
lost by 32 as a 4-point underdog
L 19–20 vs ClemsonTop 25 #22 of 668
lost by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 26–29 vs California #89 of 668
lost by 3 as a 18-point favorite
W 28–16 @ Virginia Tech #76 of 668
won by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 38–24 vs Boston College #99 of 668
won by 14 as a 25.5-point favorite
W 24–21 @ MiamiTop 25 #8 of 668
won by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog
L 27–30 vs VirginiaTop 25 #42 of 668
lost by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 34–27 @ PittsburghTop 25 #52 of 668
won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 40–17 vs Bowling Green #115 of 668
won by 23 as a 25.5-point favorite
W 28–14 vs James MadisonTop 25 #43 of 668
won by 14 as a 15.5-point favorite
W 51–17 vs Eastern Kentucky #120 of 668
won by 34 as a 38-point favorite
What’s at stake
Villanova
- Villanova is 1 game back in Patriot with 7 left to make it up.
- Villanova is still shaking off a 46-point loss.
Louisville
- Louisville is ranked #24, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Louisville is coming off a 46-point win.
The series
Louisville leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · Louisville won the last meeting
- 2026Louisville 59–13
Best players
Louisville
- Lincoln Kienholz (QB) · 639 passing yards — Heisman odds: 33rd (+5500)
- Tre Richardson (WR) · 181 receiving yards
- Lawayne McCoy (WR) · 164 receiving yards
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Louisville’s chances here.
Home −39.5 · O/U 56.5
Conditions
80°F · 6 mph wind · Cloudy
Louisville is worth +6.0 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.
60% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (28–19 home, 15–22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +7.0 at home vs. away over 68 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 572 miles to get here.
Villanova 13 – Louisville 59
Called it — picked Louisville to win.
Recent games
Louisville
- Wk 1Lat Ole Miss38-41
Villanova
- Wk 1Lvs William & Mary32-35
- Wk 1Wat Bucknell17-16
Trajectory
Louisville handled Villanova 59-13, matching the pregame favorite.