Bucknell · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Bucknell · low confidence
Most Similar Programs · Bucknell
Program Prestige · Bucknell
Season Standing · 20251935
First-Ever Orange Bowl
Bucknell defeats Miami 26-0 on January 1, 1935, at Miami Field to win the first Orange Bowl ever played.
Bucknell5-7Hope-Doping·Offseason
An all-sports powerhouse whose football program keeps almost breaking through -- one league title in three decades, a heartbreak run to the 2021 championship game, and now a first-time FCS head coach hired to finally close the gap.
Title DroughtSince 1996 · 29 yrs
No single villain -- the frustration is structural. Bucknell out-performs almost every Patriot League peer institutionally (18 Presidents' Cups, more than any other member school) while the football t…
low signal
Roster Reload - Bucknell
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable
Portal Additions1No clear position repair point
Portal Losses6Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting ReloadNARecruiting class signal unavailable
OTin 1 - Shane Toolanout 3 - Dara AdeyemiStarter Risk
IOLin 0out 1 - John OhnegianDowngrade
RBin 0out 1 - Tariq ThomasEven
LBin 0out 1 - Jack GoheenEven
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Richmond · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Bucknell football is the Patriot League's most decorated all-sports program — 18 Presidents' Cups and the very first Orange Bowl trophy in college football history (26-0 over Miami, January 1, 1935) — chasing a football identity to match. Only one Patriot League football title in 30 years (1996) and a coaching change entering 2026 define a program still trying to close the gap between institutional excellence and football relevance.
Bucknell faces roster challenges but aims for bowl eligibility
Bucknell enters the 2026 season with a high turnover rate and limited reinforcements, targeting a 7-6 record and bowl game appearance.
- Roster reloadThe team has lost six transfers, including key players like Dara Adeyemi at OT, while only adding one transfer, Shane Toolan, creating a net portal exporter status.
- ScheduleBucknell's base scenario projects a 7-6 record and bowl game appearance, though the floor scenario predicts a 3-9 season with no postseason.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Bucky the Bison paws at the turf, waiting for a reason to charge.
Transfer portal snapshot
-15.0 net portal points
(raw ledger: -17.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)OT-9.1
starter risk
IOL-3.5
low confidence
RB-3.5
low confidence
LB-1.0
low confidence
Bucknell · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 3-9
Base 7-6
Ceiling 10-3
floor3-9No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak L2Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Richmond · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Bucknell
—
Bucky the Bison paws at the turf, waiting for a reason to charge.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"'Ray Bucknell!"
— Bucknell fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Belief checklow signal
~ our readNot enough Bucknell chatter this week to read the room.
We read 1 Bucknell posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Fanbase Health Index · Bucknell · low confidence
Growing (53)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)53
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Bucknell · 2025 schedule & results5-7Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 38% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #221 | #68 | +30.5 | @Air Force | L 13–49 122 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #169 | #253 | -12 | @Marist | W 34–23 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #194 | #249 | -8.5 | VMI | W 35–28 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #207 | #163 | +14 | Lehigh | L 24–41 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #224 | #247 | -18.5 | St. Francis (PA) | W 30–23 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #223 | #168 | +5 | Richmond | W 33–28 | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #216 | #185 | +10 | @Lafayette | L 24–62 | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #234 | #247 | +4 | @Cornell | L 20–30 | 4-4 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #239 | #234 | -1.5 | Georgetown | L 24–31 | 4-5 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #234 | #251 | +3.5 | @Fordham | W 37–19 | 5-5 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #220 | #218 | -2.5 | Holy Cross | L 20–37 | 5-6 | 2-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #227 | #223 | +9.5 | @Colgate | L 19–38 | 5-7 | 2-5 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Colgate | L 19–38 | — | — | — | +0.064 | 40.3% | 108.9% | |
| Nov 15 | Holy Cross | L 20–37 | — | — | — | +0.123 | 36.9% | 142.5% | |
| Nov 8 | @Fordham | W 37–19 | — | — | — | +0.179 | 36.4% | 148.6% | |
| Oct 25 | Georgetown | L 24–31 | — | — | — | +0.236 | 40.6% | 134.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 18 | @Cornell | L 20–30 | — | — | — | +0.115 | 44.8% | 118.6% | |
| Oct 11 | @Lafayette | L 24–62 | — | — | — | +0.075 | 31.5% | 136.3% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 4 | Richmond | W 33–28 | — | — | — | +0.339 | 55.6% | 98.0% | Best success rate |
| Sep 27 | St. Francis (PA) | W 30–23 | — | — | — | +0.331 | 43.3% | 151.4% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | Lehigh | L 24–41 | — | — | — | +0.341 | 41.7% | 145.5% | |
| Sep 13 | VMI | W 35–28 | — | — | — | +0.423 | 39.7% | 185.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | @Marist | W 34–23 | — | — | — | +0.250 | 39.6% | 153.3% | |
| Aug 30 | @Air Force | L 13–49 | 266 | 2 | 28:22 | +0.056 | 40.0% | 110.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 266 | 2.0 | +0.211 | 40.9% | 136.1% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Bucknell's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.21; 70th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 5: 0.28 raw vs. 0.07 adjusted.
Most Similar Programs · Bucknell
Reads Like
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Bucknell · 2018-present
Strong
32% home win rate vs 26% on the road. margin runs +8.6 better at home. Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium seats 13,100, averaging 12% full (1,511 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home12-25Away11-30
Historical echo
Bucknell’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
Baylor 1993–1998
kept sliding
TCU 1970–1975
kept sliding
Indiana 1971–1976
stayed down
Bowling Green 2006–2011
stayed down
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
62°F average kickoff temp; 19% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 27 home games with weather data.
Program Prestige · Bucknell
Power Program
All-Time Record
295-407-39
since 1888 · 117 seasons · .398 win rate
HOME
174-115-31
AWAY
117-285-8
NEUTRAL
4-7
1880s
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Bucknell won college football's first-ever Orange Bowl in 1935 and has since built the Patriot League's most decorated all-sports department — but football itself has managed just one conference title since 1996, and enters 2026 under its third head coach since 2018.
Bucknell football traces to 1883, when Lafayette College students traveled to Lewisburg and beat the home team 59-0 in the program's first game. The high point came decades later: on January 1, 1935, Bucknell defeated Miami 26-0 to win the first Orange Bowl ever played, still the program's only bowl appearance. An earlier legend, Christy Mathewson, dropkicked field goals for Bucknell around 1899-1900 before leaving school to become a Baseball Hall of Fame pitcher for the New York Giants; the Bison's stadium was renamed Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium in his honor in 1989 and seats 13,100 today.
Bucknell became a founding member of the Colonial League in 1986 (renamed the Patriot League in 1990), joining Colgate, Davidson, Holy Cross, Lafayette, and Lehigh outside the full-scholarship Division I model; the Patriot League began phasing in football scholarships with the 2013 season. Under coach Tom Gadd, Bucknell won its only Patriot League football championship in 1996 (6-5 overall, 4-1 conference), part of a school-record run of seven straight winning seasons. No Bucknell team has won a league title since.
The program's best recent chance came in the COVID-shifted spring 2021 season, when Bucknell beat rivals Lafayette (38-13) and Lehigh (6-0) back-to-back to reach the first-ever Patriot League Championship Game — only to lose 33-10 to Holy Cross at home. Joe Susan (2010-2018, 38-61) and Dave Cecchini (2019-2025, 24-48) each failed to sustain a breakthrough; Cecchini was let go in December 2025 after a 5-7, injury-marked season, during which QB Ralph Rucker IV became the program's all-time leading passer. On January 1, 2026, Bucknell hired Jeff Behrman — who went 29-7 in three seasons at Division III John Carroll, reaching the 2025 NCAA semifinals, and who had earlier taken Union College from winless to a conference title — as its 28th head coach.
Away from the scoreboard, Bucknell's athletic department is the Patriot League's most decorated: the Bison have won the league's all-sports Presidents' Cup 18 times in its first 25 years, more than any other member school, and led the 2024-25 standings through the winter championship season. The question heading into 2026 is whether Behrman can finally make football match the rest of the department.
How they play
Bucknell plays inside the Patriot League's partial-scholarship, academically-selective structure — a program built more on institutional continuity and multi-sport depth than on a heavy recruiting budget, still searching for a second conference title since 1996.
Season Standing · 2025
Season standing settles in once games are played and rankings publish.
Patriot Standing · 2025
8th in the Patriot
Bucknell is 8th of 10 in the Patriot at 2-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehigh | 7-1 |
| 2 | Lafayette | 6-1 |
| 3 | Richmond | 4-4 |
| 4 | Villanova | 3-0 |
| 5 | Georgetown | 3-4 |
| 6 | Holy Cross | 3-4 |
| 7 | Colgate | 3-5 |
| 8 | Bucknell | 2-5 |
| 9 | Fordham | 1-6 |
| 10 | William & Mary | 0-2 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1996 Patriot League Championship
Under second-year coach Tom Gadd, Bucknell finishes 6-5 (4-1 Patriot League) to win the program's only conference football title, ending a 31-year league-title drought.
2021 Patriot League Championship Game
Bucknell beats Lafayette (38-13) and Lehigh (6-0) back-to-back in the COVID-shifted spring season to reach the first-ever Patriot League Championship Game, then loses 33-10 to Holy Cross at home.
Heartbreak
2025
The Cecchini Firing and Behrman Hire
Dave Cecchini is let go in December 2025 after going 24-48 over seven seasons; Bucknell hires Jeff Behrman (29-7 at Division III John Carroll) as its 28th head coach on January 1, 2026.
Wound
Moment of the Year · Bucknell · 2025
Moment of the Year · Bucknell · 2025Won 37-19 at Fordham
Week 11 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site