Lafayette beats Bucknell 20-7

Team pages: Lafayette · Bucknell

Lafayette2-420
Bucknell1-67Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium, Lewisburg, Pa. · Crowd 1,580ESPN+

Lafayette beat Bucknell 20-7.

We had Bucknell favored. Lafayette won.

Next: Lafayette at Fordham, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET

Next: Bucknell at Holy Cross, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Henley 14-yd TD run, Lafayette goes ahead 10-7 (Q2, 6:53). Lafayette went from 39% to 67% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Lafayette a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Lafayette was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

A tight one: Lafayette bottomed out at 38% and won.

Bucknell never had better than a 62% chance.

FinalLafayette 20-7 BucknellLafayette wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q465% at halfLafayetteHigh 97%Won20-712−19+28Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q465% at halfLafayetteHigh 97%Won20-712Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q435% at halfLafayetteLowest 3%Lost7-2012+19−28Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q435% at halfLafayetteLowest 3%Lost7-2012Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 9:11Dowling 3-yd TD pass to Arth, Bucknell goes ahead 7-3Lafayette 57% → 38% (−19)
  2. 2Q2 6:53Henley 14-yd TD run, Lafayette goes ahead 10-7Lafayette 39% → 67% (+28)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 9:11Dowling 3-yd TD pass to Arth, Bucknell goes ahead 7-3Bucknell 43% → 62% (+19)
  2. 2Q2 6:53Henley 14-yd TD run, Lafayette goes ahead 10-7Bucknell 61% → 33% (−28)
Lafayette’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Lafayette -4.5), at 45% for Lafayette (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Lafayette scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Bucknell on 1 of its 11.

Lafayette’s drives are teal, Bucknell’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Lafayette: Punt, from 97 yards out to 77PuntBucknell: Punt, from 70 yards out to 70PuntLafayette: Punt, from 65 yards out to 70PuntBucknell: Punt, from 71 yards out to 53PuntLafayette: Punt, from 85 yards out to 44PuntLafayette: Field goal, from 19 yards out to 16Field goalBucknell: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Lafayette: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownBucknell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntLafayette: Punt, from 80 yards out to 57PuntBucknell: Punt, from 80 yards out to 72PuntLafayette: Punt, from 70 yards out to 62PuntBucknell: End of half, from 77 yards out to 66End of halfQ3Bucknell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntLafayette: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownBucknell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntLafayette: Punt, from 94 yards out to 54PuntQ4Bucknell: Punt, from 77 yards out to 63PuntLafayette: Punt, from 84 yards out to 43PuntBucknell: Interception, from 95 yards out to 48InterceptionLafayette: Field goal, from 30 yards out to 11Field goalBucknell: Interception, from 82 yards out to 82InterceptionLafayette: End of game, from 55 yards out to 40End of game

From Bucknell’s side

Bucknell’s best moment: Dowling 3-yd TD pass to Arth, Bucknell goes ahead 7-3 (Q2 9:11). It lifted Bucknell’s win chance by 19 points.

Box score

Lafayette 20, Bucknell 7

Lafayette covered −4.5 by 8.5. The total, 27, stayed under 52.5.

Lafayette leaders

  • Passing Eddie Jordan 18 of 33, 158 yds
  • Rushing Jakyre Henley 22 for 121 yds, 2 TD; Malachi Gamble 13 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Mason Kuehner 6 for 55 yds; Kameron Vance 4 for 49 yds

Bucknell leaders

  • Passing Chris Dietrich 8 of 15, 104 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Michael Cadden 15 for 62 yds; Jack Sullivan 7 for 42 yds
  • Receiving Owen Garwood 3 for 58 yds; Jerry Harrison 1 for 25 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Lafayette · 1-4

Rated 200th in our preseason ratings, 242nd now.

Three straight losses.

L 31-40 vs Richmond #195 of 668

lost by 9 as a 6.5-point underdog

Lafayette lost 31-40 vs Richmond. Chance to win started at 41%, low 5%, high 94%.

L 30-38 vs Holy Cross #241 of 668

lost by 8 as a 4-point favorite

Lafayette lost 30-38 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 69%, low 1%, high 70%.

L 34-40 @ Columbia #243 of 668

lost by 6 as a 3-point underdog

Lafayette lost 34-40 at Columbia. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 71%.

W 13-9 vs Marist #223 of 668

won by 4 as a 15.5-point favorite

Lafayette won 13-9 vs Marist. Chance to win started at 89%, low 56%, high 99%.

L 7-56 @ UConn #122 of 668

lost by 49 as a 21.5-point underdog

Lafayette lost 7-56 at UConn. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 5%.

Last three games

Bucknell · 1-5

Rated 236th in our preseason ratings, 253rd now.

Three straight losses.

L 14-21 @ Georgetown #256 of 668

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 14-21 at Georgetown. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 62%.

L 0-59 @ PittsburghTop 25 #42 of 668

lost by 59 as a 54.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 0-59 at Pittsburgh. Never had a real chance.

L 7-20 vs Pennsylvania #251 of 668

lost by 13 as a 3.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 7-20 vs Pennsylvania. Chance to win started at 48%, low 1%, high 54%.

W 14-3 @ VMI #264 of 668

won by 11 as an 8.5-point favorite

Bucknell won 14-3 at VMI. Chance to win started at 69%, low 37%, high 99%.

L 16-17 vs Villanova #146 of 668

lost by 1 as a 22.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 16-17 vs Villanova. Chance to win started at 9%, low 1%, high 28%.

L 14-35 @ Richmond #185 of 668

lost by 21 as a 12.5-point underdog

Bucknell lost 14-35 at Richmond. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 14%.

Week by week

Bucknell

Wk 1: L 16-17 vs Villanova▼1VillanovaWk 2: W 14-3 at VMI▲11VMIWk 3: L 7-20 vs Pennsylvania▼13Pennsylv…Wk 4: L 0-59 at Pittsburgh▼59Pittsbur…Wk 6: L 14-21 at Georgetown▼7Georgeto…
  • Wk 1Lvs Villanova16-17
  • Wk 2Wat VMI14-3
  • Wk 3Lvs Pennsylvania7-20
  • Wk 4Lat Pittsburgh0-59
  • Wk 6Lat Georgetown14-21

Lafayette

Wk 1: L 7-56 at UConn▼49UConnWk 2: W 13-9 vs Marist▲4MaristWk 3: L 34-40 at Columbia▼6ColumbiaWk 4: L 30-38 vs Holy Cross▼8Holy Cro…Wk 5: L 31-40 vs Richmond▼9Richmond
  • Wk 1Lat UConn7-56
  • Wk 2Wvs Marist13-9
  • Wk 3Lat Columbia34-40
  • Wk 4Lvs Holy Cross30-38
  • Wk 5Lvs Richmond31-40

Power rating by week

Lafayette is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-9-11-13Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6BucknellLafayette

The series

Lafayette leads the series 27-11-3

41 meetings since 1888 · Lafayette won the last meeting

Bucknell wonLafayette won1888: Lafayette by 541890: tie1891: Bucknell by 61894: Lafayette by 441898: Lafayette by 61899: Lafayette by 121905: Lafayette by 471907: Lafayette by 341908: tie1910: Lafayette by 121911: Lafayette by 61912: tie1920: Lafayette by 31921: Lafayette by 131922: Lafayette by 211932: Bucknell by 81933: Bucknell by 211945: Bucknell by 241946: Bucknell by 292003: Lafayette by 182004: Lafayette by 12005: Lafayette by 132006: Lafayette by 312007: Lafayette by 272008: Lafayette by 172009: Lafayette by 212010: Lafayette by 112011: Bucknell by 262012: Lafayette by 62013: Lafayette by 242014: Bucknell by 32015: Bucknell by 112016: Bucknell by 252017: Bucknell by 62018: Lafayette by 22019: Lafayette by 42021: Lafayette by 272022: Lafayette by 102023: Lafayette by 342024: Bucknell by 72025: Lafayette by 3818882025
  • 2025Lafayette 62-24
  • 2024Bucknell 21-14
  • 2023Lafayette 56-22
  • 2022Lafayette 24-14
  • 2021Lafayette 27-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Bucknell’s chances here.

50-50Model · 52%Line · 36%LafayetteBucknell

Lafayette favored by 4.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Lafayette by 4.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-7 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.6 at home vs. away over 51 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 89 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.