Lafayette Leopards · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Lafayette Leopards · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Lafayette LeopardsThe First Game (1884)
Lafayette defeated Lehigh 56-0 in the inaugural Rivalry game, winning with dominance that has never been repeated
Lafayette Leopards8-4Hope-Doping·Offseason
The half of The Rivalry that won the first game 56-0 and has been chasing vindication ever since.
Standard Gap82 all-time series wins vs. Lehigh (82-74-5) yet Lehigh dominated the re…
Lehigh. The fanbase reminds itself: Lafayette won 82 of the 160 games and won the first game 56-0 — the program that started The Rivalry should be running it. Instead, Lehigh has taken the narrative a…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Georgetown · Sat Aug 29 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
The half of The Rivalry that won the first game 56-0 and has been chasing vindication ever since.
The Leopards hold the line.
Lafayette Leopards · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-6
Base 8-4
Ceiling 11-1
floor6-6Competitive but likely outside the at-large field.
base8-4Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
ceiling11-1Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Georgetown · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Lafayette Leopards
—
The Leopards hold the line.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Leopards."
— Lafayette Leopards fanbase · recurring line
30 mentions · sample growing
Fanbase Health Index · Lafayette Leopards · medium confidence
Growing (63)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 8-4 (67% win rate)67
Volume — 30 effective signal-N60
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#17 / 138 · 88th pct33.6
Pts allowed/game#91 / 138 · 35th pct28.8
All 24 stats
Other
H1 epa per play opponent#5 / 167 · 98th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct0.00.0
Red zone pass rate#10 / 154 · 94th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct0.50.0/gm
First down pass rate#89 / 215 · 59th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#4 / 6 · 50th pct0.50.0/gm
H1 epa per play#125 / 162 · 23rd pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct0.10.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team40.3/gm#148 / 167 · 12th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp100.8/gm#13 / 166 · 93rd pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team100.0%100.0%#1 / 167 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Opp80.0%80.0%#95 / 166 · 43rd pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct
Points / drive
Team0.80.1/gm#148 / 167 · 12th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp2.70.2/gm#138 / 166 · 17th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct
Yards / drive
Team22.91.9/gm#157 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp43.13.6/gm#118 / 166 · 30th pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct
Plays / drive
Team6.40.5/gm#112 / 167 · 34th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct
Opp5.90.5/gm#10 / 166 · 95th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team28.0%28.0%#155 / 167 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp8.3%8.3%#142 / 166 · 15th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#109 / 145 · 26th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct-4.3%-4.3%
Havoc rate
Team4.9%4.9%#139 / 140 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp6.9%6.9%#3 / 140 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Standard-downs success
Team25.8%25.8%#153 / 154 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp57.3%57.3%#160 / 172 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Passing-downs success#131 / 153 · 15th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct25.6%25.6%
Line yards / carry allowed#145 / 155 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct3.53.5
Stuff rate forced#151 / 155 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct8.8%8.8%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Lafayette Leopards · 2025 schedule & results8-4Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 37% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #203 | #126 | +21.5 | @Bowling Green | L 7–26 120 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #182 | #247 | -14 | @Stonehill | W 42–26 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #187 | #235 | +1.5 | @Georgetown | W 42–37 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 19 | #185 | — | -3.5 | Columbia | W 38–14 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #172 | #229 | -7 | Princeton | L 28–38 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #188 | #258 | -15.5 | Fordham | W 24–10 | 4-2 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #185 | #216 | -10 | Bucknell | W 62–24 | 5-2 | 3-0 |
| 8 | Oct 19 | #167 | #130 | +21.5 | @Oregon State | L 13–45 136 | 5-3 | 3-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #193 | #213 | -3 | @Holy Cross | W 21–13 | 6-3 | 4-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #187 | #211 | -6.5 | Colgate | W 59–42 | 7-3 | 5-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #175 | #198 | -3.5 | @Richmond | W 35–28 | 8-3 | 6-0 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #171 | #93 | +10 | Lehigh | L 32–42 | 8-4 | 6-1 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Lehigh | L 32–42 | — | — | — | +0.231 | 50.0% | 102.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 15 | @Richmond | W 35–28 | — | — | — | +0.217 | 35.0% | 173.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | Colgate | W 59–42 | — | — | — | +0.464 | 54.5% | 136.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | @Holy Cross | W 21–13 | — | — | — | -0.115 | 33.3% | 130.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 19 | @Oregon State | L 13–45 | 269 | 1 | 30:09 | +0.013 | 25.4% | 144.8% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 11 | Bucknell | W 62–24 | — | — | — | +0.304 | 38.7% | 192.9% | Most explosive |
| Oct 4 | Fordham | W 24–10 | — | — | — | +0.138 | 42.4% | 121.0% | |
| Sep 27 | Princeton | L 28–38 | — | — | — | +0.159 | 52.2% | 102.4% | |
| Sep 19 | Columbia | W 38–14 | — | — | — | +0.240 | 56.5% | 83.5% | Best success rate |
| Sep 13 | @Georgetown | W 42–37 | — | — | — | +0.344 | 50.8% | 167.1% | One-score win |
| Sep 6 | @Stonehill | W 42–26 | — | — | — | +0.414 | 52.5% | 131.4% | |
| Aug 28 | @Bowling Green | L 7–26 | 177 | 0 | 27:40 | -0.081 | 22.8% | 129.1% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (12 games) | 223 | 0.5 | +0.194 | 42.9% | 134.6% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Lafayette Leopards hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
0th percentile success on standard downs, 12th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Schedule mirage
How much of Lafayette Leopards's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.19; 73rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 7: 0.22 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Lafayette Leopards · 2018-present
Strong
48% home win rate vs 43% on the road. margin runs +11.2 better at home. Fisher Field seats 13,132, averaging 38% full (5,029 attendance, 9 games reported).
Home18-19Away19-25
Venue texture
66°F average kickoff temp; 15% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 27 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Lafayette Leopards
National Program
All-Time Record
407-422-29
since 1882 · 133 seasons · .474 win rate
HOME
248-140-12
AWAY
153-276-17
NEUTRAL
6-6
1880s
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Patriot Standing · 2025
2nd in the Patriot
Lafayette Leopards is 2nd in the Patriot at 6-1. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehigh | 7-1 |
| 2 | Lafayette | 6-1 |
| 3 | Richmond | 4-4 |
| 4 | Villanova | 3-0 |
| 5 | Georgetown | 3-4 |
| 6 | Holy Cross | 3-4 |
| 7 | Colgate | 3-5 |
| 8 | Bucknell | 2-5 |
| 9 | Fordham | 1-6 |
| 10 | William & Mary | 0-2 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2024
160 Games of The Rivalry
The 160th Rivalry game played (November 23, 2024); Lafayette lost 38-14 and Lehigh claimed the Patriot League title
Wound
Moment of the Year · Lafayette Leopards · 2025
Moment of the Year · Lafayette Leopards · 2025Won 42-26 at Stonehill
Week 2 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2023): 0-1
Most recent: 2023 — loss 36-34 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.
2023
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