Villanova beats Lafayette 44-21

Team pages: Villanova · Lafayette

Villanova5-444
Lafayette3-521Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Fisher Field, Easton, Pa. · Crowd 4,293ESPN+

Villanova beat Lafayette 44-21.

We had Villanova favored. It won.

Next: Villanova vs Richmond, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET

Next: Lafayette at William & Mary, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Jordan intercepted by Bursey at the Lafayette 27 and returned for a TD, Villanova leads 17-7 (Q1, 0:38). Villanova went from 71% to 87% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Villanova a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Villanova was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: Villanova never fell below 51%.

Lafayette never had better than a 48% chance.

FinalVillanova 44-21 LafayetteVillanova wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4VillanovaWon44-2112+13+16Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4VillanovaWon44-2112Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4VillanovaLowest 0%Lost21-4412−13−16Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4VillanovaLowest 0%Lost21-4412Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:12McQuaide 49-yd TD pass to Binkowski, Villanova goes ahead 10-7Villanova 58% → 71% (+13)
  2. 2Q1 0:38InterceptionJordan intercepted by Bursey at the Lafayette 27 and returned for a TD, Villanova leads 17-7Villanova 71% → 87% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:12McQuaide 49-yd TD pass to Binkowski, Villanova goes ahead 10-7Lafayette 42% → 29% (−13)
  2. 2Q1 0:38InterceptionJordan intercepted by Bursey at the Lafayette 27 and returned for a TD, Villanova leads 17-7Lafayette 29% → 13% (−16)
Villanova’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Villanova -7), at 65% for Villanova (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Villanova scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Lafayette on 3 of its 12.

Villanova’s drives are teal, Lafayette’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Villanova: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 13Field goalLafayette: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLafayette: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 72Interception TDLafayette: Punt, from 72 yards out to 67PuntQ2Villanova: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntLafayette: Punt, from 67 yards out to 61PuntVillanova: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownLafayette: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownLafayette: End of half, from 61 yards out to 45End of halfQ3Lafayette: Punt, from 88 yards out to 91PuntVillanova: Punt, from 54 yards out to 55PuntLafayette: Fumble, from 87 yards out to 62FumbleVillanova: Field goal, from 38 yards out to 23Field goalLafayette: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownVillanova: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 10Field goalQ4Lafayette: Turned over on downs, from 35 yards out to 28DownsVillanova: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownLafayette: Interception, from 75 yards out to 62InterceptionVillanova: Punt, from 49 yards out to 46PuntLafayette: Interception, from 85 yards out to 62InterceptionVillanova: End of game, from 72 yards out to 67End of game

Box score

Villanova 44, Lafayette 21

Villanova covered −7 by 16. The total, 65, went over 51.5.

Villanova leaders

  • Passing Pat McQuaide 23 of 32, 293 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Ja'briel Mace 15 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Ragland 12 for 11 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Brandon Binkowski 4 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Chris Colby 2 for 43 yds, 1 TD

Lafayette leaders

  • Passing Eddie Jordan 17 of 30, 144 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Jason Penza 4 for 40 yds, 2 TD; Malachi Gamble 12 for 27 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ethan Hosak 4 for 45 yds; Malachi Gamble 4 for 41 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Villanova · 4-4

Rated 137th in our preseason ratings, 175th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over Lehigh as a 6.5-point underdog.

W 24-18 vs Lehigh No. 137 of 668 teams

won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

Villanova won 24-18 vs Lehigh. Chance to win started at 37%, low 37%, high better than 99%.

W 38-17 @ Fordham No. 254 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 7.5-point favorite

Villanova won 38-17 at Fordham. Chance to win started at 65%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

L 35-38 vs Morgan State No. 185 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 16.5-point favorite

Villanova lost 35-38 vs Morgan State. Chance to win started at 91%, low under 1%, high 94%.

L 21-28 vs Colgate No. 159 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite

W 20-16 @ Long Island University No. 230 of 668 teams

won by 4 as an 18.5-point favorite

Villanova won 20-16 at Long Island University. Chance to win started at 90%, low 47%, high 97%.

L 13-59 @ LouisvilleTop 25 No. 56 of 668 teams

lost by 46 as a 39.5-point underdog

Villanova lost 13-59 at Louisville. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 17-16 @ Bucknell No. 233 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 22.5-point favorite

Villanova won 17-16 at Bucknell. Chance to win started at 91%, low 72%, high 99%.

L 32-35 vs William & Mary No. 180 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite

Villanova lost 32-35 vs William & Mary. Chance to win started at 87%, low under 1%, high 98%.

Last three games

Lafayette · 3-4

Rated 200th in our preseason ratings, 216th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 31-17 @ Fordham No. 255 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite

Lafayette won 31-17 at Fordham. Chance to win started at 52%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

W 20-7 @ Bucknell No. 255 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 4.5-point favorite

Lafayette won 20-7 at Bucknell. Chance to win started at 45%, low 38%, high 97%.

L 31-40 vs Richmond No. 195 of 668 teams

lost by 9 as a 6.5-point underdog

Lafayette lost 31-40 vs Richmond. Chance to win started at 41%, low 5%, high 94%.

L 30-38 vs Holy Cross No. 241 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 4-point favorite

Lafayette lost 30-38 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 69%, low 1%, high 70%.

L 34-40 @ Columbia No. 243 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 3-point underdog

Lafayette lost 34-40 at Columbia. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 71%.

W 13-9 vs Marist No. 223 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 15.5-point favorite

Lafayette won 13-9 vs Marist. Chance to win started at 89%, low 56%, high 99%.

L 7-56 @ UConn No. 122 of 668 teams

lost by 49 as a 21.5-point underdog

Lafayette lost 7-56 at UConn. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 5%.

Week by week

Lafayette

Wk 3: L 34-40 at Columbia▼6ColumbiaWk 4: L 30-38 vs Holy Cross▼8Holy Cro…Wk 5: L 31-40 vs Richmond▼9RichmondWk 7: W 20-7 at Bucknell▲13BucknellWk 8: W 31-17 at Fordham▲14Fordham
  • Wk 3Lat Columbia34-40
  • Wk 4Lvs Holy Cross30-38
  • Wk 5Lvs Richmond31-40
  • Wk 7Wat Bucknell20-7
  • Wk 8Wat Fordham31-17

Villanova

Wk 3: W 20-16 at Long Island University▲4Long Isl…Wk 4: L 21-28 vs Colgate▼7ColgateWk 5: L 35-38 vs Morgan State▼3Morgan S…Wk 7: W 38-17 at Fordham▲21FordhamWk 8: W 24-18 vs Lehigh▲6Lehigh
  • Wk 3Wat Long Island University20-16
  • Wk 4Lvs Colgate21-28
  • Wk 5Lvs Morgan State35-38
  • Wk 7Wat Fordham38-17
  • Wk 8Wvs Lehigh24-18

Power rating by week

Villanova is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-5-8-11Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8LafayetteVillanova

The series

Lafayette leads the series 4-2

6 meetings since 1898 · Villanova has won the last 2

Lafayette wonVillanova won1898: Lafayette by 161899: Lafayette by 131914: Lafayette by 111920: Lafayette by 342016: Villanova by 172017: Villanova by 5918982017
  • 2017Villanova 59-0
  • 2016Villanova 31-14
  • 1920Lafayette 34-0
  • 1914Lafayette 14-3
  • 1899Lafayette 13-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Lafayette’s chances here.

50-50Model · 40%Line · 29%VillanovaLafayette

Villanova favored by 7 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Villanova by 7, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 47 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.