Richmond Spiders · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Richmond Spiders · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Richmond Spiders2024 CAA Dominance
Richmond finished 8-0 in the CAA, back-to-back conference champions before moving to the Patriot League
Richmond Spiders7-5Hope-Doping·Offseason
The Virginia power returning to regional alignment after 17 years, reuniting with old rivals in a new conference home.
Standard GapCAA back-to-back champions (2023-2024) entering a new conference trying…
Richmond fans don't admit it, but they carry a quiet chip: did we move to the Patriot League to climb or to run? The fanbase believes the move is about geographic alignment and reconnecting with Virgi…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Bucknell · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
The Virginia power returning to regional alignment after 17 years, reuniting with old rivals in a new conference home.
The Spiders hold the line.
Richmond Spiders · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 7-5
Ceiling 10-2
floor5-7Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base7-5Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling10-2Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Bucknell · at home
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Richmond Defeats Howard 13-12
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
The Pulse on Richmond Spiders
—
The Spiders hold the line.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Spiders."
— Richmond Spiders fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Richmond Spiders · medium confidence
Stable (50)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-5 (58% win rate)62
Volume — 2 effective signal-N38
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Richmond Spiders · 2025 schedule & results7-5Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 43% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #168 | #175 | — | @Lehigh | L 14–21 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #188 | #212 | -6.5 | @Wofford | W 14–10 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #183 | #129 | +24.5 | @North Carolina | L 6–41 113 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #175 | #242 | -17 | VMI | W 38–14 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #168 | #182 | -16 | Howard | W 13–12 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #168 | #223 | -5 | @Bucknell | L 28–33 | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #174 | #203 | +1.5 | @Colgate | W 24–19 | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #174 | #223 | -5.5 | Holy Cross | L 22–28 | 4-4 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #195 | #254 | -13.5 | Fordham | W 17–14 | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #199 | #233 | -5.5 | @Georgetown | W 31–24 | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #198 | #175 | +3.5 | Lafayette | L 28–35 | 6-5 | 3-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #202 | #163 | +6.5 | @William & Mary | W 28–21 | 7-5 | 4-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @William & Mary | W 28–21 | — | — | — | +0.118 | 36.8% | 124.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 15 | Lafayette | L 28–35 | — | — | — | +0.063 | 34.0% | 148.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | @Georgetown | W 31–24 | — | — | — | +0.193 | 36.1% | 161.8% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | Fordham | W 17–14 | — | — | — | -0.060 | 31.9% | 110.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | Holy Cross | L 22–28 | — | — | — | +0.152 | 38.2% | 123.8% | One-score loss |
| Oct 11 | @Colgate | W 24–19 | — | — | — | +0.146 | 38.9% | 122.9% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | @Bucknell | L 28–33 | — | — | — | +0.335 | 53.6% | 147.2% | Best success rate |
| Sep 27 | Howard | W 13–12 | — | — | — | -0.103 | 34.9% | 128.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | VMI | W 38–14 | — | — | — | +0.450 | 45.2% | 172.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @North Carolina | L 6–41 | 199 | 3 | 37:59 | -0.246 | 31.7% | 70.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | @Wofford | W 14–10 | — | — | — | +0.039 | 35.3% | 133.4% | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 30 | @Lehigh | L 14–21 | — | — | — | -0.051 | 33.3% | 128.9% | One-score loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 199 | 3.0 | +0.086 | 37.5% | 131.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Richmond Spiders's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.09; 39th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 3: -0.09 raw vs. -0.00 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Richmond Spiders · 2018-present
Strong
61% home win rate vs 55% on the road. margin runs +9.4 better at home. E. Claiborne Robins Stadium seats 8,217, averaging 70% full (5,740 attendance, 12 games reported).
Home26-16Away24-19
Historical echo
Richmond Spiders’s slide has precedent — and the closest programs clawed back.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
UNLV 1991–1996
clawed back
Fresno State 1969–1974
stayed down
Ball State 1999–2004
clawed back
UTSA 2014–2019
clawed back
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
70°F average kickoff temp; 13% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 31 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Richmond Spiders
National Program
All-Time Record
398-455-30
since 1902 · 110 seasons · .450 win rate
HOME
214-164-8
AWAY
143-271-22
NEUTRAL
41-20
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Patriot Standing · 2025
3rd in the Patriot
Richmond Spiders is 3rd in the Patriot at 4-4. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehigh | 7-1 |
| 2 | Lafayette | 6-1 |
| 3 | Richmond | 4-4 |
| 4 | Villanova | 3-0 |
| 5 | Georgetown | 3-4 |
| 6 | Holy Cross | 3-4 |
| 7 | Colgate | 3-5 |
| 8 | Bucknell | 2-5 |
| 9 | Fordham | 1-6 |
| 10 | William & Mary | 0-2 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2025
Patriot League Transition
Richmond joined the Patriot League as an associate member (other sports remain CAA), reuniting with William & Mary rivalry
Moment of the Year · Richmond Spiders · 2025
Moment of the Year · Richmond Spiders · 2025Won 38-14 vs VMI
Week 4 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2015-2023): 1-2
Most recent: 2023 — loss 41-13 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-2.
202320232015
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