The rest of the season
One real test left: Villanova 47%
Win out 30% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins
Holy Cross Crusaders's chance to win each game left, from our model: Georgetown 70%, Villanova 47%, Fordham 90%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing David Lynch 1,600 · Rushing Joseph Williams 850 · Receiving Ty Curran 404 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Lehigh | L 10-35 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Lynch 313 · Rush Williams 36 · Rec Abernathy 129 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Colgate | L 10-35 | 0-2 | 0-2 | Pass Lynch 264 · Rush Williams 44 · Rec Curran 130 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Miami (OH) | L 7-45 98 | 0-3 | 0-2 | Pass Lynch 141 · Rush Jones 18 · Rec Gordon 54 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Yale | L 28-38 | 0-4 | 0-2 | Pass Lynch 144 · Rush Williams 120 · Rec Fisher 59 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Lafayette | W 38-30 | 1-4 | 1-2 | Pass Lynch 230 · Rush Williams 50 · Rec Fisher 105 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @William & Mary | W 41-14 | 2-4 | 2-2 | Pass Lynch 186 · Rush Williams 111 · Rec Curran 65 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Harvard | L 7-30 | 2-5 | 2-2 | Pass Lynch 120 · Rush Williams 123 · Rec Williams 87 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Bucknell | W 34-3 | 3-5 | 3-2 | Pass Lynch 110 · Rush Williams 144 · Rec Curran 67 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Richmond | W 33-14 | 4-5 | 4-2 | Pass Lynch 92 · Rush Williams 206 · Rec Fisher 41 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Georgetown | 12:30 pm ET70% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Villanova | 12 pm ET47% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Fordham | 12 pm ET90% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Holy Cross Crusaders, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Richmond | W 33-14 | — | — | — | +0.367 | 50.8% | 1.18 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Bucknell | W 34-3 | — | — | — | +0.257 | 47.5% | 1.24 | Blowout win |
| Oct 17 | @Harvard | L 7-30 | — | — | — | −0.027 | 40.4% | 1.25 | |
| Oct 3 | @William & Mary | W 41-14 | — | — | — | +0.291 | 49.3% | 1.20 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | @Lafayette | W 38-30 | — | — | — | −0.081 | 39.7% | 1.06 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Yale | L 28-38 | — | — | — | +0.006 | 31.9% | 1.39 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Miami (OH) | L 7-45 | 181 | 0 | 21:41 | −0.232 | 30.4% | 1.14 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Colgate | L 10-35 | — | — | — | −0.025 | 33.3% | 1.38 | |
| Aug 29 | Lehigh | L 10-35 | — | — | — | +0.052 | 50.0% | 1.00 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 181 | 0.0 | +0.068 | 41.5% | 1.20 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Holy Cross Crusaders · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 2%; 5 wins 19%; 6 wins 49%; 7 wins 30%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Patriot teams the same season
The Patriot League dynasty learning to win without the coach who built it.
The Patriot League dynasty learning to win without the coach who built it.
Range of outcomes · Holy Cross Crusaders · 2026