Yale beats Holy Cross 38-28

Team pages: Yale · Holy Cross

Yale1-038
Holy Cross0-428Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Fitton Field, Worcester, Mass. · Crowd 17,623ESPN+

Yale beat Holy Cross 38-28.

We had Holy Cross favored. Yale won.

Next: Yale lost to Cornell 38-25, Sat Sep 26

Next: Holy Cross beat Lafayette 38-30, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Keeney run for a 7-yd loss, turnover on downs (Q4, 12:47). Yale went from 78% to 60% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Yale a 59% chance, and the closing betting line (Yale was a 21-point favorite) put it at 95%.

A tight one: Yale bottomed out at 42% and won.

Holy Cross never had better than a 58% chance.

17 unansweredYale · Q4 3:42
FinalYale 38-28 Holy CrossYale wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q488% at halfYaleWon38-2812−18+15Scores17 unanswered
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q488% at halfYaleWon38-2812Scores17 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q412% at halfYaleLost28-3812+18−15Scores17 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q412% at halfYaleLost28-3812Scores17 unanswered

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 12:474th and 4Keeney run for a 7-yd loss, turnover on downsYale 78% → 60% (−18)
  2. 2Q4 9:36Reno 18-yd TD pass to Santiago, ties it 28-28Yale 52% → 67% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 12:474th and 4Keeney run for a 7-yd loss, turnover on downsHoly Cross 22% → 40% (+18)
  2. 2Q4 9:36Reno 18-yd TD pass to Santiago, ties it 28-28Holy Cross 48% → 33% (−15)
Yale’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Yale -21), at 91% for Yale (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Yale scored on 6 of its 15 drives; Holy Cross on 4 of its 15.

Yale’s drives are teal, Holy Cross’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Holy Cross: Punt, from 75 yards out to 41PuntYale: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownHoly Cross: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Missed field goal, from 68 yards out to 22Missed FGHoly Cross: Punt, from 78 yards out to 52PuntQ2Yale: Punt, from 80 yards out to 67PuntHoly Cross: Punt, from 70 yards out to 70PuntYale: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 32DownsHoly Cross: Punt, from 68 yards out to 52PuntYale: Punt, from 94 yards out to 76PuntHoly Cross: Punt, from 63 yards out to 61PuntYale: Punt, from 70 yards out to 73PuntHoly Cross: Missed field goal, from 57 yards out to 36Missed FGYale: End of half, from 64 yards out to 55End of halfQ3Yale: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownHoly Cross: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownHoly Cross: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntHoly Cross: Touchdown, from 44 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Yale: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 66DownsHoly Cross: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownHoly Cross: Punt, from 76 yards out to 70PuntYale: Punt, from 93 yards out to 51PuntHoly Cross: Punt, from 96 yards out to 91PuntYale: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownHoly Cross: Interception, from 77 yards out to 77InterceptionYale: Field goal, from 28 yards out to 1Field goalHoly Cross: Turned over on downs, from 67 yards out to 49DownsYale: End of game, from 51 yards out to 51End of game

From Holy Cross’s side

Holy Cross’s best moment: Keeney run for a 7-yd loss, turnover on downs (Q4 12:47). It lifted Holy Cross’s win chance by 18 points.

Box score

Yale 38, Holy Cross 28

Holy Cross covered +21 by 11. The total, 66, went over 50.5.

Yale leaders

  • Passing Dante Reno 30 of 43, 454 yds, 5 TD
  • Rushing Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni 12 for 54 yds; Cuttler Adams 11 for 31 yds
  • Receiving Jaxton Santiago 12 for 234 yds, 2 TD; Lucius Anderson 9 for 155 yds, 2 TD

Holy Cross leaders

  • Passing David Lynch 16 of 38, 144 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Joseph Williams 16 for 120 yds; Jake Croce 6 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Lincoln Fisher 2 for 59 yds, 2 TD; SirCharles Gordon 1 for 29 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Yale · 9-3

Rated 211th in our preseason ratings.

L 13-21 @ Montana State #48 of 667

W 43-42 @ Youngstown State #127 of 667

won by 1 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 45-28 vs Harvard #143 of 667

won by 17 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 13-10 @ Princeton #209 of 667

won by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 34-22 @ Brown #226 of 667

won by 12 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-10 vs Columbia #238 of 667

won by 14 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 35-13 vs Pennsylvania #215 of 667

won by 22 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 47-7 vs Stonehill #243 of 667

won by 40 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 16-17 @ Dartmouth #204 of 667

lost by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 13-31 @ Lehigh #140 of 667

lost by 18 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 41-24 vs Cornell #238 of 667

won by 17 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 28-10 vs Holy Cross #184 of 667

won by 18 as a 6.5-point favorite

Last three games

Holy Cross · 0-3

Rated 198th in our preseason ratings, 228th now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 7-45 @ Miami (OH) #86 of 668

lost by 38 as a 30.5-point underdog

Holy Cross lost 7-45 at Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 10-35 @ Colgate #208 of 668

lost by 25 as a 4.5-point underdog

Holy Cross lost 10-35 at Colgate. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 31%.

L 10-35 vs Lehigh #140 of 668

lost by 25 as a 14-point underdog

Holy Cross lost 10-35 vs Lehigh. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 24%.

Power rating by week

Holy Cross is rated 0.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-9.1-9.4-9.8Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2Holy CrossYale

The series

Yale leads the series 21-7

28 meetings since 1903 · Yale has won the last 2

Holy Cross wonYale won1903: Yale by 261904: Yale by 231905: Yale by 301906: Yale by 171907: Yale by 521908: Yale by 181909: Yale by 121910: Yale by 121911: Yale by 261912: Yale by 71913: Yale by 101945: Holy Cross by 211949: Yale by 71950: Yale by 11967: Holy Cross by 121981: Yale by 12003: Yale by 252005: Holy Cross by 32007: Yale by 212008: Yale by 32017: Yale by 322018: Holy Cross by 32019: Yale by 132021: Holy Cross by 32022: Holy Cross by 242023: Holy Cross by 252024: Yale by 72025: Yale by 1819032025
  • 2025Yale 28-10
  • 2024Yale 38-31
  • 2023Holy Cross 49-24
  • 2022Holy Cross 38-14
  • 2021Holy Cross 20-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Holy Cross’s chances here.

50-50Model · 41%Line · 5%YaleHoly Cross

Yale favored by 21 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Yale by 21, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Yale.

opened +18.5now +21

Spread: +18.5 → +21

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 2-8 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.5 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 87 miles to get here.

Where next