Cornell upsets Yale 38-25

Team pages: Yale · Cornell

Yale1-125
Cornell1-138Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Schoellkopf Field, Ithaca, N.Y. · Crowd 12,542ESPN+

Cornell beat Yale 38-25 as a 14-point underdog.

We had Cornell favored. It won.

Next: Yale beat Merrimack 41-24, Sat Oct 3

Next: Cornell beat Georgetown 35-14, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Bass-Sulpizio 1-yd TD run, Cornell leads 14-3 (Q2, 1:57). Cornell went from 52% to 71% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Cornell a 46% chance, and the closing betting line (Cornell was a 14-point underdog) put it at 13%.

FinalCornell 38-25 YaleCornell wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfCornellYaleLowest 17%Won38-2512+19−16Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfCornellYaleLowest 17%Won38-2512Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfYaleCornellHigh 83%Lost25-3812−19+16Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfYaleCornellHigh 83%Lost25-3812Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:57Bass-Sulpizio 1-yd TD run, Cornell leads 14-3Cornell 52% → 71% (+19)
  2. 2Q4 13:03Djeumeni Kemeni 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 28-18Cornell 94% → 78% (−16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:57Bass-Sulpizio 1-yd TD run, Cornell leads 14-3Yale 48% → 29% (−19)
  2. 2Q4 13:03Djeumeni Kemeni 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 28-18Yale 6% → 22% (+16)
Cornell’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Yale -14), at 22% for Cornell (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Cornell scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Yale on 4 of its 12.

Cornell’s drives are teal, Yale’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Yale: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntCornell: Punt, from 44 yards out to 38PuntYale: Interception, from 75 yards out to 51InterceptionCornell: Touchdown, from 6 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntCornell: Punt, from 87 yards out to 76PuntYale: Punt, from 99 yards out to 63PuntCornell: Punt, from 80 yards out to 83PuntQ2Yale: Field goal, from 48 yards out to 23Field goalCornell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntYale: Punt, from 70 yards out to 68PuntCornell: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Punt, from 75 yards out to 63PuntCornell: End of half, from 80 yards out to 82End of halfQ3Cornell: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Interception, from 66 yards out to 55InterceptionCornell: Touchdown, from 43 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownCornell: Punt, from 75 yards out to 54PuntYale: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Cornell: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 17Field goalYale: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 68DownsCornell: Touchdown, from 32 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownCornell: End of game, from 44 yards out to 51End of game

From Yale’s side

Yale’s best moment: Djeumeni Kemeni 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 28-18 (Q4 13:03). It lifted Yale’s win chance by 16 points.

Box score

Cornell 38, Yale 25

Cornell covered +14 by 27. The total, 63, went over 48.5.

Yale leaders

  • Passing Charlie Hewitt 26 of 44, 244 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni 14 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Charlie Hewitt 7 for 31 yds
  • Receiving Jaxton Santiago 5 for 58 yds, 1 TD; Graham Smith 4 for 53 yds, 1 TD

Cornell leaders

  • Passing Garrett Bass-Sulpizio 14 of 21, 152 yds
  • Rushing Ean Pope 4 for 48 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Triplett 11 for 31 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving John McAuliffe 2 for 45 yds; Ja'von Broussard 3 for 45 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Yale · 9-3

Rated 211th in our preseason ratings, 224th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Youngstown State as a 4.5-point underdog.

L 13-21 @ Montana State #48 of 667

W 43-42 @ Youngstown State #127 of 667

won by 1 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 45-28 vs Harvard #143 of 667

won by 17 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 13-10 @ Princeton #209 of 667

won by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 34-22 @ Brown #226 of 667

won by 12 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-10 vs Columbia #238 of 667

won by 14 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 35-13 vs Pennsylvania #215 of 667

won by 22 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 47-7 vs Stonehill #243 of 667

won by 40 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 16-17 @ Dartmouth #204 of 667

lost by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 13-31 @ Lehigh #140 of 667

lost by 18 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 41-24 vs Cornell #238 of 667

won by 17 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 28-10 vs Holy Cross #184 of 667

won by 18 as a 6.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Cornell · 4-6

Rated 241st in our preseason ratings, 249th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 22-point win over Pennsylvania as an 8-point underdog.

L 12-29 vs Columbia #228 of 667

lost by 17 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 14-24 @ Dartmouth #185 of 667

lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog

W 39-17 @ Pennsylvania #222 of 667

won by 22 as an 8-point underdog

W 20-17 vs Princeton #219 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 30-24 vs Brown #225 of 667

won by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 30-20 vs Bucknell #240 of 667

won by 10 as a 4-point favorite

L 10-34 @ Harvard #151 of 667

lost by 24 as a 32.5-point underdog

L 21-41 vs Colgate #198 of 667

lost by 20 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 24-41 @ Yale #205 of 667

lost by 17 as a 19.5-point underdog

L 10-13 @ UAlbany #203 of 667

lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Week by week

Cornell

  • Wk 3Lat Colgate7-20

Yale

  • Wk 3Wat Holy Cross38-28

Power rating by week

Yale is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-9.1-10.3-11.5Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3CornellYale

The series

Yale leads the series 45-19-2

66 meetings since 1889 · Yale won the last meeting

Cornell wonYale won1889: Yale by 701889: Yale by 501936: Yale by 231937: Yale by 91940: Cornell by 211941: Cornell by 141942: Cornell by 61944: Yale by 91945: Yale by 111946: tie1947: Yale by 141949: Cornell by 341950: Cornell by 71951: Cornell by 271952: Yale by 131953: tie1954: Yale by 261955: Yale by 281956: Yale by 181957: Yale by 111958: Cornell by 51959: Yale by 231960: Yale by 161961: Yale by 121962: Yale by 181963: Cornell by 31964: Yale by 21965: Yale by 101966: Cornell by 21967: Yale by 341968: Yale by 121969: Yale by 171970: Yale by 311971: Cornell by 211972: Cornell by 111973: Yale by 171974: Yale by 241975: Yale by 61976: Yale by 81977: Yale by 281978: Yale by 281979: Yale by 31980: Cornell by 181981: Yale by 62003: Yale by 142004: Cornell by 122005: Yale by 202006: Yale by 122007: Yale by 392008: Cornell by 32009: Cornell by 22010: Yale by 142011: Yale by 202012: Cornell by 392013: Yale by 152014: Yale by 382015: Yale by 72016: Cornell by 142017: Yale by 252018: Yale by 62019: Yale by 112021: Yale by 62022: Yale by 242023: Cornell by 22024: Cornell by 242025: Yale by 1718892025
  • 2025Yale 41-24
  • 2024Cornell 47-23
  • 2023Cornell 23-21
  • 2022Yale 38-14
  • 2021Yale 23-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Cornell’s chances here.

50-50Model · 46%Line · 13%YaleCornell

Yale favored by 14 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Yale by 14, on the usual path until Q1 6:51

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Cornell.

opened +15.5now +14

The total fell 1 point.

opened 49.5now 48.5

Spread: +15.5 → +14 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.