Stonehill · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Stonehill · low confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Stonehill2025 NEC debut
Stonehill goes 4-8 (3-4 NEC) in its first year of FCS eligibility, overachieving expectations
Miracle
Stonehill4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Stonehill is the Skyhawks in their first year of FCS eligibility — overachieving in the Northeast Conference and proving the D-II powerhouse belongs at the FCS level.
Title DroughtSince 2025
Plenty of skeptics thought Stonehill would get buried in the NEC. Instead, the Skyhawks are 4-8 (3-4 in conference) in year one, overachieving against predictions and proving they belong.
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Bryant · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Stonehill is the Skyhawks in their first year of FCS eligibility — overachieving in the Northeast Conference and proving the D-II powerhouse belongs at the FCS level.
Skyhawks country waits.
Stonehill · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Bryant · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Stonehill
—
Skyhawks country waits.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Stonehill"
— Stonehill fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Stonehill · low confidence
Stable (48)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Stonehill · 2025 schedule & results4-8Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #256 | #236 | +6.5 | @Sacred Heart | L 7–12 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #247 | #182 | +14 | Lafayette | L 26–42 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #253 | #151 | +21 | @Maine | W 13–10 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #249 | — | +17.5 | Pennsylvania | L 21–24 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #254 | #184 | +6 | Long Island University | W 10–3 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #248 | #193 | +7.5 | @Duquesne | L 14–34 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #240 | #206 | +21.5 | @Yale | L 7–47 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #246 | #243 | +7.5 | @Mercyhurst | W 22–15 | 3-5 | 2-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #236 | #247 | -6.5 | Robert Morris | L 17–20 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #237 | #193 | +10 | @Central Connecticut | L 10–40 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #251 | #238 | +1 | @Wagner | L 14–20 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #246 | #256 | -7.5 | St. Francis (PA) | W 20–10 | 4-8 | 3-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | St. Francis (PA) | W 20–10 | — | — | — | +0.012 | 37.7% | 122.0% | |
| Nov 15 | @Wagner | L 14–20 | — | — | — | -0.029 | 33.3% | 124.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 8 | @Central Connecticut | L 10–40 | — | — | — | -0.076 | 36.2% | 108.6% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | Robert Morris | L 17–20 | — | — | — | +0.113 | 35.9% | 131.0% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | @Mercyhurst | W 22–15 | — | — | — | +0.093 | 40.4% | 120.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | @Yale | L 7–47 | — | — | — | -0.117 | 23.7% | 150.0% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 4 | @Duquesne | L 14–34 | — | — | — | +0.089 | 32.8% | 156.7% | Most explosive |
| Sep 27 | Long Island University | W 10–3 | — | — | — | +0.142 | 33.3% | 124.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Pennsylvania | L 21–24 | — | — | — | +0.132 | 33.9% | 121.4% | One-score loss |
| Sep 13 | @Maine | W 13–10 | — | — | — | -0.119 | 34.9% | 116.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Lafayette | L 26–42 | — | — | — | +0.135 | 42.0% | 111.8% | Best success rate |
| Aug 30 | @Sacred Heart | L 7–12 | — | — | — | +0.026 | 39.7% | 114.6% | One-score loss |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.034 | 35.3% | 125.1% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Stonehill's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.03; 19th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.08 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Stonehill · 2018-present
Elite
54% home win rate vs 33% on the road. margin runs +14.7 better at home. W.B. Mason Stadium seats 2,400, averaging 79% full (1,885 attendance, 9 games reported).
Home13-11Away9-18
Venue texture
65°F average kickoff temp; 21% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 24 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Stonehill
Power Program
All-Time Record
24-36
since 2003 · 12 seasons · .400 win rate
HOME
13-11
AWAY
10-19
NEUTRAL
1-6
2000s
2010s
2020s
NEC Standing · 2025
6th in the NEC
Stonehill sits 6th of 9 in the NEC at 3-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Connecticut | 6-1 |
| 2 | Duquesne | 6-2 |
| 3 | Long Island University | 5-3 |
| 4 | Mercyhurst | 5-3 |
| 5 | Wagner | 4-3 |
| 6 | Stonehill | 3-4 |
| 7 | Robert Morris | 2-5 |
| 8 | New Haven | 0-3 |
| 9 | St. Francis (PA) | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
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