Robert Morris · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Robert Morris · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Robert Morris2025 struggle
Robert Morris fights through a 3-9 season searching for the next winning phase
Wound
Robert Morris3-9Hope-Doping·Offseason
Robert Morris is the Northeast Conference program fighting to reverse a difficult stretch — a storied colonial-era school looking to rebuild from a 3-9 season under established leadership.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs
Robert Morris has the structure and the coach in place — what's missing is the winning consistency to prove the program deserves respect in the NEC. The fanbase is waiting for the breakthrough year.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at Wagner · Sat Aug 29 · 04:00 UTC
The experience
Robert Morris is the Northeast Conference program fighting to reverse a difficult stretch — a storied colonial-era school looking to rebuild from a 3-9 season under established leadership.
The Colonials bide their time.
Robert Morris · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 1-11
Base 3-9
Ceiling 6-6
floor1-11Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base3-9Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling6-6Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak L3Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Wagner · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fumble luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 80% recovered, vs. ~49% expected.
4 of 5 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
The Pulse on Robert Morris
—
The Colonials bide their time.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Colonials."
— Robert Morris fanbase · recurring line
9 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Robert Morris · medium confidence
Stable (47)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 3-9 (25% win rate)44
Volume — 9 effective signal-N49
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Robert Morris · 2025 schedule & results3-9Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 42% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #220 | #101 | +43.5 | @West Virginia | L 3–45 135 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #209 | #239 | +19.5 | @Youngstown State | L 17–56 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #226 | #419 | — | West Liberty | W 28–14 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #246 | #224 | -2.5 | Dayton | L 14–17 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #250 | #226 | +8 | @Merrimack | L 7–24 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #253 | #213 | +9.5 | Central Connecticut | L 12–24 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #256 | #210 | +9.5 | @Long Island University | L 7–17 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #255 | #258 | -2.5 | @St. Francis (PA) | W 24–14 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #247 | #236 | +6.5 | @Stonehill | W 20–17 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #236 | #248 | -2.5 | Wagner | L 20–24 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #239 | #241 | +4.5 | @Mercyhurst | L 13–27 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #243 | #170 | +13.5 | Duquesne | L 17–20 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Duquesne | L 17–20 | — | — | — | -0.068 | 33.9% | 95.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 15 | @Mercyhurst | L 13–27 | — | — | — | -0.082 | 35.7% | 102.3% | |
| Nov 8 | Wagner | L 20–24 | — | — | — | +0.098 | 37.7% | 131.8% | One-score loss |
| Nov 1 | @Stonehill | W 20–17 | — | — | — | -0.027 | 32.3% | 116.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | @St. Francis (PA) | W 24–14 | — | — | — | +0.164 | 47.6% | 110.3% | |
| Oct 18 | @Long Island University | L 7–17 | — | — | — | +0.102 | 27.9% | 143.4% | |
| Oct 11 | Central Connecticut | L 12–24 | — | — | — | -0.029 | 37.1% | 151.1% | |
| Oct 4 | @Merrimack | L 7–24 | — | — | — | -0.009 | 28.9% | 157.6% | |
| Sep 20 | Dayton | L 14–17 | — | — | — | +0.057 | 29.7% | 160.8% | Most explosive |
| Sep 13 | West Liberty | W 28–14 | — | — | — | +0.204 | 61.7% | 75.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | @West Virginia | L 3–45 | 123 | 2 | 32:30 | -0.298 | 15.5% | 137.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (11 games) | 123 | 2.0 | +0.010 | 35.3% | 125.6% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Robert Morris's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.01; 13th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: -0.30 raw vs. -0.02 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Robert Morris · 2018-present
Elite
51% home win rate vs 17% on the road. margin runs +15.7 better at home. Joe Walton Stadium seats 3,000, averaging 74% full (2,232 attendance, 11 games reported).
Home20-19Away7-33
Venue texture
60°F average kickoff temp; 14% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 28 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Robert Morris
Power Program
All-Time Record
89-149
since 2003 · 22 seasons · .373 win rate
HOME
51-54
AWAY
23-80
NEUTRAL
15-15
2000s
2010s
2020s
NEC Standing · 2025
7th in the NEC
Robert Morris is 7th of 9 in the NEC at 2-5. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Connecticut | 6-1 |
| 2 | Duquesne | 6-2 |
| 3 | Long Island University | 5-3 |
| 4 | Mercyhurst | 5-3 |
| 5 | Wagner | 4-3 |
| 6 | Stonehill | 3-4 |
| 7 | Robert Morris | 2-5 |
| 8 | New Haven | 0-3 |
| 9 | St. Francis (PA) | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · Robert Morris · 2025
Moment of the Year · Robert Morris · 2025Won 28-14 vs West Liberty
Week 3 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
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