Wagner · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Wagner · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Wagner2025 NEC competitiveness
Wagner goes 5-7 overall (4-3 NEC), maintaining middle-tier standing
Wagner5-7Hope-Doping·Offseason
Wagner is the Seahawks grinding away in the Northeast Conference — a program that shows up, competes, and earns respect through consistency and tough NEC football.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs
Wagner competes hard and earns respect in the NEC with games like the 4-3 conference record. But the fanbase knows that respectable isn't the same as making noise — the Seahawks need to break through.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Robert Morris · Sat Aug 29 · 04:00 UTC
The experience
Wagner is the Seahawks grinding away in the Northeast Conference — a program that shows up, competes, and earns respect through consistency and tough NEC football.
Seahawks country waits.
Wagner · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 3-9
Base 5-7
Ceiling 8-4
floor3-9Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base5-7Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling8-4Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Robert Morris · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Wagner
—
Seahawks country waits.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Wagner"
— Wagner fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Wagner · medium confidence
Stable (46)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)53
Volume — 2 effective signal-N39
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#131 / 138 · 6th pct16.4
Pts allowed/game#59 / 138 · 58th pct24.5
All 16 stats
Other
H1 epa per play#161 / 162 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct-0.2-0.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#162 / 167 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.50.0/gm
First down pass rate#207 / 215 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct0.20.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team10.1/gm#164 / 167 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#6 / 7 · 29th pct
Opp121.0/gm#19 / 166 · 89th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct
Red zone score %
Team100.0%100.0%#1 / 167 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 7 · 100th pct
Opp75.0%75.0%#53 / 166 · 69th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team0.40.0/gm#161 / 167 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 7 · 43rd pct
Opp3.30.3/gm#154 / 166 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Yards / drive
Team17.41.4/gm#162 / 167 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 7 · 43rd pct
Opp504.2/gm#157 / 166 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Plays / drive
Team5.10.4/gm#163 / 167 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 7 · 43rd pct
Opp6.30.5/gm#37 / 166 · 78th pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team42.3%42.3%#165 / 167 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 7 · 86th pct
Opp3.8%3.8%#160 / 166 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success allowed#169 / 172 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct64.4%64.4%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Wagner · 2025 schedule & results5-7Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 38% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #249 | #44 | +46.5 | @Kansas | L 7–46 126 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #185 | #231 | +16 | @Georgetown | L 20–31 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #222 | #254 | -7.5 | Marist | L 10–21 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #239 | #107 | +30.5 | @Central Michigan | L 10–49 119 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #260 | #251 | +2.5 | Norfolk State | W 18–13 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #257 | #239 | +6 | Mercyhurst | L 7–19 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #260 | #199 | — | Central Connecticut | L 17–24 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #259 | #137 | +23.5 | Duquesne | W 24–13 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #248 | #261 | -6.5 | @St. Francis (PA) | W 23–20 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #248 | #236 | +2.5 | @Robert Morris | W 24–20 | 4-6 | 3-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #238 | #251 | -1 | Stonehill | W 20–14 | 5-6 | 4-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #232 | #178 | +10 | @Long Island University | L 17–24 | 5-7 | 4-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Long Island University | L 17–24 | — | — | — | -0.209 | 34.8% | 72.5% | One-score loss |
| Nov 15 | Stonehill | W 20–14 | — | — | — | -0.158 | 37.9% | 70.7% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | @Robert Morris | W 24–20 | — | — | — | -0.075 | 39.7% | 109.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | @St. Francis (PA) | W 23–20 | — | — | — | -0.212 | 37.8% | 73.3% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | Duquesne | W 24–13 | — | — | — | +0.264 | 45.0% | 137.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 18 | Central Connecticut | L 17–24 | — | — | — | -0.052 | 33.3% | 110.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 11 | Mercyhurst | L 7–19 | — | — | — | +0.091 | 40.3% | 104.1% | |
| Sep 27 | Norfolk State | W 18–13 | — | — | — | +0.100 | 41.3% | 125.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | @Central Michigan | L 10–49 | 115 | 2 | 27:37 | -0.418 | 14.8% | 71.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | Marist | L 10–21 | — | — | — | -0.166 | 36.6% | 102.8% | |
| Sep 6 | @Georgetown | L 20–31 | — | — | — | +0.107 | 45.8% | 90.3% | Best success rate |
| Aug 29 | @Kansas | L 7–46 | 143 | 0 | 26:45 | -0.114 | 14.9% | 181.1% | Most explosive |
| Season average (12 games) | 129 | 1.0 | -0.070 | 35.2% | 104.1% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Wagner's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is -0.07; 1st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.03. The widest gap came in week 1: -0.11 raw vs. -0.00 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Wagner · 2018-present
Elite
34% home win rate vs 15% on the road. margin runs +18.7 better at home. Wagner College Stadium seats 3,300, averaging 82% full (2,701 attendance, 9 games reported).
Home12-23Away7-37
Venue texture
65°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Wagner
Power Program
All-Time Record
94-152
since 1946 · 23 seasons · .382 win rate
HOME
52-61
AWAY
27-77
NEUTRAL
15-14
1940s
2000s
2010s
2020s
NEC Standing · 2025
5th in the NEC
Wagner sits 5th of 9 in the NEC at 4-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Connecticut | 6-1 |
| 2 | Duquesne | 6-2 |
| 3 | Long Island University | 5-3 |
| 4 | Mercyhurst | 5-3 |
| 5 | Wagner | 4-3 |
| 6 | Stonehill | 3-4 |
| 7 | Robert Morris | 2-5 |
| 8 | New Haven | 0-3 |
| 9 | St. Francis (PA) | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2023–2023
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#211
Titus Leo
Inside Linebacker · 2023 · Indianapolis
r/cfb moments
161
[Postgame Thread] Buffalo Defeats Wagner 69-7
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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