The rest of the season
One real test left: Duquesne 70%
Win out 44% · expect 2.3 of 3 more wins
Central Connecticut State University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Stonehill 76%, Long Island University 82%, Duquesne 70%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Brett Griffis 1,164 · Rushing Davon Smith Jr. 764 · Receiving Michael Trovarelli 348 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @South Dakota | L 20-59 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Kenyon 81 · Rush Griffis 43 · Rec Trovarelli 45 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Toledo | L 10-63 134 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Kenyon 40 · Rush Griffis 31 · Rec Williams 21 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Montana State | L 30-35 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Griffis 228 · Rush Smith Jr. 92 · Rec Daniels 56 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Wagner | W 45-14 | 1-3 | 1-0 | Pass Griffis 180 · Rush Griffis 62 · Rec Pardo 62 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | American International | W 51-14 | 2-3 | 1-0 | Pass Griffis 227 · Rush Smith Jr. 220 · Rec Williams 56 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Mercyhurst | W 43-40 | 3-3 | 2-0 | Pass Griffis 131 · Rush Smith Jr. 162 · Rec Trovarelli 58 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | New Haven | W 42-20 | 4-3 | 3-0 | Pass Griffis 218 · Rush Smith Jr. 80 · Rec Wadley 79 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Robert Morris | W 49-14 | 5-3 | 4-0 | Pass Griffis 120 · Rush Griffis 117 · Rec Trovarelli 63 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Stonehill | 1 pm ET · NEC Front Row76% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Long Island University | time TBA · NEC Front Row82% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Duquesne | 12 pm ET70% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Central Connecticut State University, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Robert Morris | W 49-14 | — | — | — | +0.433 | 53.8% | 1.42 | Best success rate |
| Oct 24 | New Haven | W 42-20 | — | — | — | +0.201 | 49.2% | 1.23 | |
| Oct 17 | @Mercyhurst | W 43-40 | — | — | — | +0.294 | 53.8% | 1.23 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | American International | W 51-14 | — | — | — | +0.461 | 53.1% | 1.70 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Wagner | W 45-14 | — | — | — | +0.135 | 52.5% | 1.26 | Blowout win |
| Sep 19 | @Montana State | L 30-35 | — | — | — | +0.255 | 44.8% | 1.15 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | @Toledo | L 10-63 | 139 | 1 | 25:57 | −0.323 | 19.4% | 1.32 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @South Dakota | L 20-59 | — | — | — | +0.044 | 44.8% | 0.72 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 139 | 1.0 | +0.187 | 46.4% | 1.25 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Range of outcomes · Central Connecticut State University · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 1%; 6 wins 13%; 7 wins 42%; 8 wins 44%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among NEC teams the same season
Central Connecticut is the Northeast Conference champion and FCS playoff team—a 8–5 (6–1 NEC) program that won the conference title and proved New Britain football belongs in the national conversation.
Central Connecticut is the Northeast Conference champion and FCS playoff team—a 8–5 (6–1 NEC) program that won the conference title and proved New Britain football belongs in the national conversation.
Range of outcomes · Central Connecticut State University · 2026