Montana State beats Central Connecticut 35-30
Team pages: Central Connecticut · Montana State
Montana State beat Central Connecticut 35-30. Share this game
We had Montana State favored. It won.
Next: Central Connecticut beat Wagner 45-14, Sat Oct 3
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana State a 96% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana State was a 41.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Favored the whole way: Montana State never fell below 75%.
Central Connecticut led by 14 but, as a 41.5-point underdog, never had better than a 24% chance.
Montana State · Q4 12:38Montana State 35-30 Central Connecticut
Montana State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Central Connecticut 30-35 Montana StateCentral Connecticut lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q3 12:28FumbleJones fumbles, Mitchell returns it for a TD, Central Connecticut leads 21-7Montana State 87% → 76% (−11)
The play that swung it
- 1Q3 12:28FumbleJones fumbles, Mitchell returns it for a TD, Central Connecticut leads 21-7Central Connecticut 13% → 24% (+11)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Montana State -41.5), at 99% for Montana State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Montana State scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Central Connecticut on 4 of its 10.
Montana State’s drives are teal, Central Connecticut’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Central Connecticut’s side
Central Connecticut’s best moment: Jones fumbles, Mitchell returns it for a TD, Central Connecticut leads 21-7 (Q3 12:28). It lifted Central Connecticut’s win chance by 11 points.
Box score
Montana State 35, Central Connecticut 30
Central Connecticut covered +41.5 by 36.5. The total, 65, went over 59.5.
Central Connecticut leaders
- Passing Brett Griffis 18 of 30, 228 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Davon Smith Jr. 19 for 92 yds; Brett Griffis 15 for 43 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Eli Daniels 2 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Damani Williams 6 for 50 yds, 1 TD
Montana State leaders
- Passing Justin Lamson 23 of 28, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Adam Jones 18 for 122 yds, 2 TD; Justin Lamson 8 for 32 yds
- Receiving Adam Jones 6 for 92 yds; Dane Steel 4 for 62 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Central Connecticut · 0-2
Rated 191st in our preseason ratings, 191st now.
Two straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 20-59 @ South Dakota #125 of 668
lost by 39 as a 20.5-point underdog
Last three games
Montana State · 3-0
Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 75th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
Montana State
- Wk 1Wat Utah Tech54-0
- Wk 1Wvs Butler51-24
- Wk 2Wat Nevada20-7
Central Connecticut
- Wk 1Lat South Dakota20-59
- Wk 2Lat Toledo10-63
Power rating by week
Montana State is rated 7.6 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Montana State’s chances here.
Montana State favored by 41.5 · Total 59.5
How games like this usually go
Montana State by 41.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Montana State.
Spread: −38.5 → −41.5
Home field
Montana State is worth +10.3 points (±15.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
33% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 4-5 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
4,946 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,914 miles to get here.